{"id":112042,"date":"2024-08-10T21:51:01","date_gmt":"2024-08-10T21:51:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/10\/china-is-mis-playing-the-relationship-with-india-rush-doshi\/"},"modified":"2024-08-10T21:51:01","modified_gmt":"2024-08-10T21:51:01","slug":"china-is-mis-playing-the-relationship-with-india-rush-doshi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/10\/china-is-mis-playing-the-relationship-with-india-rush-doshi\/","title":{"rendered":"China is mis-playing the relationship with India: Rush Doshi"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"China<\/div>\n
Rush Doshi<\/a><\/strong>, a key architect of US President Joe Biden<\/a>\u2019s China policy, served in the National Security Council in 2021-24. Author of an acclaimed book, The Long Game: China\u2019s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, he speaks to Seema Sirohi<\/strong> on the US, India and China. Edited excerpts:<\/em><\/p>\n

How do you view the India-China border situation? What would US do if there was another Galwan-type situation?<\/strong><\/p>\n

First, the Biden Administration has repeatedly noted the need for China to refrain from aggressive activity around the Line of Actual Control<\/a>. Second, the US is not only more public about the border dispute but even includes it alongside the South and East China Seas, Taiwan Strait<\/a>, as examples of provocative Chinese activity.Despite the recent reported border agreement between China and India, the future is uncertain. China will probably continue salami-slicing on the border just as it is doing in the East and South China Seas<\/a> and Taiwan Strait. If there\u2019s again a major incident, the US will publicly support India. You could imagine intelligence-sharing coordination, working with allies on a public condemnation of Beijing and possibly, announcements of additional defence cooperation.<\/p>\n

Fundamentally, China is mis-playing the relationship with India. It is in China\u2019s interest to resolve the border dispute and try to pull India closer. For whatever reason\u2014probably related to sovereignty issues\u2014they haven\u2019t handled it better.<\/p>\n

Their reason might be simpler\u2014to keep India under pressure from all sides. After all, China helped Pakistan build nuclear weapons.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Perhaps, China will try to contain India as it grows. But right now, China is simply not as focused on India as they are on the US, Japan, Europe or Russia. That is their mistake. Their approach to India is misguided. Having India as neutral should be more valuable to China than trying\u2014and failing\u2014to contain India. It\u2019s a strategic error on China\u2019s part.In the US-China-India triangle, how does each try to shape the dynamics of the other two?<\/strong>
The US-India relationship has gotten strong. India\u2019s growth strategy\u2014its technological advancement, its ability to attract capital\u2014is premised on close cooperation with the US. That\u2019s the choice the Indian government has made, and it\u2019s a good choice. The US rarely has made such a large bet on another country as on India. And it is underwritten by a very powerful peopleto-people connection, which is only going to get stronger. To me, this is a new fact of geopolitics. And it\u2019s been brought about by China\u2019s own inability to treat India with the respect it deserves.<\/p>\n

There were times in the past when the US had a more misguided approach and even worked with China to punish India after the nuclear tests. Fortunately, that history is now far behind us. While the US-India relations have become very close, US-China relations have got much worse as have India-China relations. Both the US and India have poor relations with China. To me, the triangle is very unusual\u2014 there\u2019s not really a clear pivot.<\/p>\n

Taking the US-India-Russia triangle, the US was upset at the recent India-Russia summit. India says it\u2019s in the US interest that India has a channel to Vladimir Putin so Russia is not completely isolated.<\/strong>
Historically, the Russia-India relationship was a privileged one. Russia provided some of its best equipment to India before giving it to China. But if Russia continues on the trajectory it has embarked on, and is increasingly dependent on China, it will become a junior partner and lose some sovereignty over time. This will probably hurt India. Russia may be less forthcoming with critical defence assistance, ammunition, parts etc. to India.<\/p>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s meeting with PM Narendra Modi<\/a> and his trip to Vietnam may be intended to show the world, and China, that Russia has choices. But the reality is different. The choices Russia is making vis-\u00e0-vis China will be hard to unwind. The world is polarising and this complicates India\u2019s geopolitical situation.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump has a different view of Russia. What if he becomes US president?<\/strong>
I don\u2019t think anyone knows with great confidence what the initial period of foreign policy will look like. Trump has put out his own proposals for how the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict could be brought to an end. I think the fundamental question is really about what Putin will do even more in some ways than what Trump will do. I think we should have some humility about the ability of Washington to shape the actions of great powers like Russia and China.<\/p>\n

How do you see US-China relations? A new Cold War?<\/strong>
There are aspects that resemble a Cold War but the Cold War had many seasons. There were moments of d\u00e9tente and moments of escalation, like the Cuban missile crisis. It\u2019s probably most accurate to describe US-China relations as intense strategic competition, even rivalry.<\/p>\n

Critics say, the US policy of cooperation and confrontation is at best na\u00efve and at worst dangerous.<\/strong>
I\u2019d frame it differently. The US policy toward China is to compete but manage that competition to avoid escalation. The end goal is about American interests: keeping the Indo-Pacific free from hegemony, maintaining economic and technology leadership, ensuring the region is safe for democracy.<\/p>\n

The Biden Administration has intensified competitive steps to secure its interests vis-\u00e0-vis China. These include the first ever outbound investment regime; updating of export controls on semiconductors and manufacturing equipment; forced divestiture for TikTok; a very important new tariff approach, including on electric vehicles, among others. Despite that, the administration was still able to stabilise the relationship through intense diplomacy.<\/p>\n

People forget that when the Biden Administration came into office, there was a profound sense in Beijing that the US was entering terminal decline\u2014it had mishandled the pandemic, alienated allies and partners, hollowed itself out industrially and mishandled democratic transition. It was important to disabuse them of that notion.<\/p>\n

Your take on Southeast Asian countries and their hesitation to align more closely with the US.<\/strong>
As they see what China is doing in the South China Sea and against the Philippines, they have to ask themselves, what\u2019s the possibility it could happen to them. China has used grey zone tactics against Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. It\u2019s bullying smaller states and doing so in a way that\u2019s extremely risky and escalatory. I think many countries wonder if they will be subject to Chinese coercion, whether military or economic. The Chinese approach is so clearly heavy-handed, they can\u2019t not wonder.<\/p>\n

The Long Game came out three years ago. Has your thinking evolved?<\/strong>
In the book I argued that China had a grand strategy to displace American order first at the regional level and now at the global level. At the time it was somewhat of a controversial argument. People thought it was hawkish. But to me, it was never hawkish or dovish, it was simply an objective analysis based on Chinese texts and behaviour. Three years later that belief is much more widely accepted. For example, the Biden Administration has stated publicly that China is the only country with the intent and capability to reshape the international order. Other countries have made similar assessments.<\/p>\n

The debate now is on the question of prescription. In my current work at the Council on Foreign Relations and Georgetown University, I am focused not only on China\u2019s grand strategy but also on how great powers compete. Grand strategy in a democracy is figuring out how to build capabilities. It is a challenge both the US and India face together vis-\u00e0-vis China.<\/p>\n

(Seema Sirohi is a foreign policy columnist based in Washington, DC)<\/em>
<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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Rush Doshi, a key architect of US President Joe Biden\u2019s China policy, served in the National Security Council in 2021-24. Author of an acclaimed book, The Long Game: China\u2019s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, he speaks to Seema Sirohi on the US, India and China. Edited excerpts: How do you view the India-China border […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112043,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img.etimg.com\/photo\/msid-112432253,imgsize-737226.cms","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[602],"tags":[168,92028,273,2054,20887,92027,2910,2007,3636,92024,92025,92026],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112042"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112042"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112042\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":112044,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112042\/revisions\/112044"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}