{"id":156586,"date":"2024-10-18T15:59:19","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T15:59:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/18\/is-u-s-democracy-in-decline-heres-what-the-science-says\/"},"modified":"2024-10-18T15:59:19","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T15:59:19","slug":"is-u-s-democracy-in-decline-heres-what-the-science-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/18\/is-u-s-democracy-in-decline-heres-what-the-science-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Is U.S. democracy in decline? Here\u2019s what the science says"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_1-2?ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Is U.S. democracy in decline? Here\u2019s what the science says\" title=\"Is U.S. democracy in decline? Here\u2019s what the science says\" \/><\/div> \r\n<br><div data-component=\"video-embed\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\n\n\n\n<p>The United States\u2019 reputation as an exemplar of democracy appears to be eroding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a poll taken earlier this year, almost three-quarters of U.S. respondents agreed that the country\u2019s democracy \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2024\/07\/10\/72-of-americans-say-the-us-used-to-be-a-good-example-of-democracy-but-isnt-anymore\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">used to be a good example<\/a> for other countries to follow, but has not been in recent years.\u201d People elsewhere appear to share that sentiment. The majority of poll respondents in Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and South Korea also agreed with the statement.<\/p>\n\n\n<aside class=\"sn-conversion rich-text rich-text--with-sidebar\">\n<style><![CDATA[\n.email-conversion {\n  border: 1px solid #ffcccb;\n  color: white;\n  margin-top: 50px;\n  background-image: url(\"\/wp-content\/themes\/sciencenews\/client\/src\/images\/cta-module@2x.jpg\");\n  padding: 20px;\n  clear: both;\n}\n\n]]><\/style>\n\n\n\n                        <style class=\"is-layout-flow 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unset);line-height:unset;margin:unset;padding:unset;border:unset;background:unset;&:hover, &:focus-visible {\n            border: unset;\n            background: unset;\n        }}.zephr-form-disabled-div{pointer-events:none;opacity:0.8}.zephr-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-form-input-inner-button{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:5px;padding:10px 5px}.zephr-form-input-inner-text{color:var(--zephr-color-text-main);font-size:var(--zf-subtext-fontSize);font-weight:bold;font-family:var(--zf-root-fontFamily)}\n]]><\/style>\n                        \n                        <style><![CDATA[.zephr-form-max-width.zephr-payment-form-max-width {\n    background-image: url(https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/themes\/sciencenews\/client\/src\/images\/cta-module@2x.jpg);\n    padding:20px;\n    max-width: 100%;\n}\n\n.zephr-form-custom-text > p {\n    display: none;\n}\n\nform.zephr-form-content {\n    opacity: .9;\n}\n\nlabel.zephr-form-checkbox-label {\n    font-size: 1.2rem;\n    font-weight: bolder;\n}\n\n.zephr-form-custom-text > h4 {\n    color: black !important;\n}\n\nbutton.zephr-form-button {\n    background: #d4441f !important;\n    font-weight: bold !important;\n    text-transform: uppercase !important;\n}\n\nlabel.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label {\n    color: white;\n    font-size: 1.6rem;\n}\n\n.zephr-form-content {\n    background:#2f537f;\n    \n}\n\n.zephr-payment-form-custom-text {\n    margin-top: .2rem;\n}\n\n.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label {\n    display: flex;\n    align-items: center;\n    font-family: var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);\n    color: white;\n    font-weight: bold;\n}]]><\/style>\n                        \n                        \n<\/aside>\n\n\n<p>More than 60 percent of U.S. respondents <a href=\"https:\/\/apnorc.org\/projects\/widespread-feeling-that-the-2024-presidential-election-carries-serious-stakes-for-the-country\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">in another poll<\/a>, from December 2023, believe that democracy in America is at risk depending on who wins the upcoming presidential election. Republican respondents see Democratic candidates as threatening the system and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now voters face the looming specter of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, in which supporters of former President Donald Trump attempted to halt the certification of the 2020 election. Echoes of that event have many questioning whether this year\u2019s election on November 5 will be free, fair and result in a peaceful transition of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A prominent metric that political scientists look to called <a href=\"https:\/\/www.v-dem.net\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Varieties of Democracy, or V-Dem<\/a> \u2014 which hinges on the notion of free and fair <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/blog\/scicurious\/why-people-dont-vote-and-what-do-about-it\">elections<\/a> \u2014 shows a slight dip in the health of U.S. democracy over the last decade (<em>SN: 11\/4\/16<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Political scientists using that tool disagree over how to interpret that decline. Yet catching democratic erosion early is key to righting the course, says political scientist Rachel Beatty Riedl of Cornell University. \u201cIt\u2019s really important to pay attention to those tiny dips.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To understand the state of U.S. democracy, <em>Science News<\/em> went to experts with these five questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do political scientists define and measure democracy?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Political scientists have long debated whether democracy is a matter of kind \u2014 a country is either a democracy or not \u2014 or a matter of degree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some 30 years ago, political scientist Adam Przeworski of New York University argued democracy exists when an incumbent government peacefully cedes power to the winning party following a loss at the polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDemocracy is a system in which [sitting] governments lose elections,\u201d Przeworski says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-sciencenews-content-sidebar\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dips in democracy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. liberal democracy score has trended upward since 1900, though there have been dips. Political scientists disagree on whether a dip in recent years is cause for concern.<\/p>\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Embed\" class=\"sn-responsive-iframe\" id=\"sn-responsive-iframe-47\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/19823290\/embed\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" layout=\"responsive\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"\">\n\t<\/iframe><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The simplicity of this binary definition allows for ease of measurement, as elections and their aftermath are readily observable. And this litmus test has endured. \u201cIt actually works well most of the time,\u201d says Daniel Pemstein, a political scientist at North Dakota State University in Fargo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Przeworski\u2019s test has limitations. Even when he introduced his measure in the 1990s, he had trouble classifying some countries \u2014 Botswana, for instance. \u201cBotswana was and still is a country in which there\u2019s relative freedom, freedom of the press, freedom of the unions. There are regular elections. Elections are never questioned by any observers, and yet the same party always wins,\u201d Przeworski says. \u201cSo there was no way for us to tell what would happen if they lose. Would they accept the defeat, or would they not accept the defeat?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, Przeworski\u2019s measure shows that such hard-to-classify countries are increasing in number, which he suspects is due to a global trend away from democracy. But, he acknowledges, such small shifts are hard to capture with a binary measure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do you measure changes in democratic systems?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Many political scientists rely on metrics that treat democracy as existing along a continuum. The V-Dem project allows researchers and policy makers to evaluate a country\u2019s system of governance along several dimensions, including level of inequality, whether citizens feel heard, and the presence and strength of systems of checks and balances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All those measures build from electoral democracy, says Michael Coppedge of the University of Notre Dame in Indiana and a principal investigator for the project. V-Dem\u2019s electoral democracy index focuses on the election period, including free and fair elections and other conditions surrounding the event, such as freedom of the press, respect for civil liberties, the right to organize and broad suffrage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The more stringent and widely used V-Dem index of \u201cliberal democracy\u201d includes those factors and adds a close look at the years between elections, particularly a country\u2019s system of checks and balances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The system used by V-Dem to measure the health of democracy involves some subjectivity. Political scientists in countries around the world provide ratings for questions about governance, such as those pertaining to election violence and interference, executive respect for the constitution and impartiality among public officials. Their responses range from 0 for the worst behavior and up to 5 for the best. V-Dem researchers then take those responses to calculate scores, ranging from 0 to 1 (most democratic), for each index it tracks, including electoral and liberal democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The political scientists don\u2019t have to explain the rationale behind each rating, but analysts can look at which scores in the questionnaire have fluctuated over time to get a sense of their thought process, Coppedge says. \u201cOur data is very good for tracking changes within countries over time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the United States, the liberal democracy score has been on a marked upward trend since 1900, the first year in the index. But scores have recently dipped \u2014 from 0.85 in 2015 to 0.77 in 2023. The decline in scores is linked to survey responses related to violence around the time of elections, perceptions that opposition parties cannot exercise oversight over the ruling party, and weakened checks and balances. Coppedge cites several events over the last few years that could help explain what the expert raters were thinking, including efforts in some states to prevent felons from voting even after they have completed their sentences and partisan efforts to block Supreme Court nominees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many political scientists view the violent events of January 6, 2021, as particularly troubling. On that day, Trump supporters who refused to accept President Joe Biden\u2019s November victory stormed the Capitol to try to overturn the election results. \u201cThat\u2019s a pretty obvious effort to subvert democracy,\u201d Coppedge says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How troubling is the dip in the U.S. democracy score?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. score on liberal democracy remains on par with countries like the United Kingdom, which also scored 0.77 in 2023, and Canada, which scored 0.76. But researchers such as Riedl say that even small dips in scores warrant serious attention because pinpointing precisely when a country begins shifting toward autocracy is challenging yet key to thwarting further backsliding. And the U.S. dip is part of a larger global shift toward autocracy over the last decade, V-Dem researchers claimed in their 2024 annual report. More than 70 percent of the world\u2019s population, or 5.7 billion people, <a href=\"https:\/\/v-dem.net\/documents\/43\/v-dem_dr2024_lowres.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">lived in autocracies in 2023<\/a> compared with 50 percent in 2003, the team found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Baseline electoral democracy scores provide further evidence of a global decline in democracy. In 2003, 11 countries were in the process of autocratizing. In 2023, that number nearly quadrupled to 42.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But some researchers question these findings. Earlier this year, a pair of political scientists found there is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/ps-political-science-and-politics\/article\/measuring-democratic-backsliding\/9EE2044CDA598BD815349912E61189D8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">no global backsliding trend<\/a>. Andrew Little of the University of California, Berkeley and Anne Meng of the University of Virginia in Charlottesville quantified purportedly objective measures of democracy (versus the more subjective V-Dem index), including Przeworski\u2019s measure of incumbent losses at the polls, as well as executive constraints and attacks on the press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are over 200 countries in the world and, at any given time, some of them, such as Hungary and Venezuela today, will be undergoing democratic backsliding. But that does not make a trend, Meng and Little wrote in April in <em>PS: Political Science &amp; Politics<\/em>. \u201cThe common claim that we are in a period of massive global democratic decline is not clearly supported by empirical evidence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meng and Little refrain from commenting on whether the United States is in a period of democratic decline. But they speculate that intensive media coverage of the supposed decline could be biasing the judgment of experts, such as V-Dem\u2019s raters. But Coppedge and his team say that they have found <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/ps-political-science-and-politics\/article\/conceptual-and-measurement-issues-in-assessing-democratic-backsliding\/7A620BD91885C932B48E6783BC32CA24\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">little to no evidence of such bias<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-sciencenews-content-sidebar\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Democracy under fire<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Four types of threats \u2014 polarization, conflict over who belongs, economic inequality and executive aggrandizement (presidential overreach) \u2014 have endangered U.S. democracy at various points in the country\u2019s history, according to political scientists Suzanne Mettler of Cornell University and Robert Lieberman of Johns Hopkins University. Here\u2019s a look at the country\u2019s past brushes with authoritarianism, describe in Mettler and Lieberman\u2019s 2020 book, <em>Four Threat<\/em>s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"slideshow__container___2inGd\" data-component=\"slideshow\">\n\t\n\n\t<ol class=\"slideshow__slides___BfLMo\">\n\t\t\n<li class=\"slideshow__wrapper___Aebb- item-1\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t<figure class=\"slideshow__figure___DHfIZ\">\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"slideshow__gallery-caption___jcoF1\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"caption\"><strong>1790s, Threat: Polarization&#13;\n<\/strong>The 1798 Sedition Act, backed by the ruling Federalist Party, made it a crime to publish material critical of the government. Members of the Democratic-Republican Party, including Thomas Jefferson, called the act authoritarian. Violence seemed imminent after the 1800 presidential election failed to produce a clear victor. But the House of Representatives selected Jefferson, establishing the tradition of a peaceful transfer of power between parties.<\/span>\t\t\t\t<span class=\"credit\">Library of Congress<\/span>\t\t\t<\/figcaption>\n\n\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"slideshow__wrapper___Aebb- item-2\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t<figure class=\"slideshow__figure___DHfIZ\">\n\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"474\" height=\"383\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"A black-and-white drawing of U.S. Representative Preston Brooks of South Carolina attacking Senator Charles Sumner of Massachusetts with a cane\" data-attachment-id=\"3145176\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_2-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_2-1.jpg?fit=680%2C550&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"680,550\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1850s, Threat: Polarization, Conflict Over Who Belongs, Rising Economic Inequality&lt;br \/&gt;&#10;&lt;\/strong&gt;Mounting political polarization, tensions over Black people\u2019s status in the United States, and economic inequality all jeopardized U.S. democracy. When Kansas sought statehood, it was unclear if it should enter the Union as a free or slave state. With slave states receiving a boost in House seats and electoral vote counts, the stakes were high. Violent conflicts erupted between the country\u2019s pro- and anti-slavery factions \u2014 tensions that ultimately triggered the Civil War.&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_2-1.jpg?fit=474%2C383&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_2-1.jpg?fit=556%2C450&amp;ssl=1\"\/>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"slideshow__gallery-caption___jcoF1\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"caption\"><strong>1850s, Threat: Polarization, Conflict Over Who Belongs, Rising Economic Inequality&#13;\n<\/strong>Mounting political polarization, tensions over Black people\u2019s status in the United States, and economic inequality all jeopardized U.S. democracy. When Kansas sought statehood, it was unclear if it should enter the Union as a free or slave state. With slave states receiving a boost in House seats and electoral vote counts, the stakes were high. Violent conflicts erupted between the country\u2019s pro- and anti-slavery factions \u2014 tensions that ultimately triggered the Civil War.<\/span>\t\t\t\t<span class=\"credit\">John L. Magee\/Wikimedia Commons<\/span>\t\t\t<\/figcaption>\n\n\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"slideshow__wrapper___Aebb- item-3\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t<figure class=\"slideshow__figure___DHfIZ\">\n\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"474\" height=\"383\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"A color illustration of a Black man voting after the passage of the 15th Amendment\" data-attachment-id=\"3145177\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_3-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_3-1.jpg?fit=680%2C550&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"680,550\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_3\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1890s, Threat:&lt;\/strong&gt; &lt;strong&gt;Polarization, Conflict Over Who Belongs, Rising Economic Inequality&lt;br \/&gt;&#10;&lt;\/strong&gt;After the Civil War, authoritarian enclaves spread across the South as states imposed poll taxes and literacy tests to disenfranchise Black Americans and poor white people.&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_3-1.jpg?fit=474%2C383&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_3-1.jpg?fit=556%2C450&amp;ssl=1\"\/>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"slideshow__gallery-caption___jcoF1\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"caption\"><strong>1890s, Threat:<\/strong> <strong>Polarization, Conflict Over Who Belongs, Rising Economic Inequality\n<\/strong>After the Civil War, authoritarian enclaves spread across the South as states imposed poll taxes and literacy tests to disenfranchise Black Americans and poor white people.<\/span>\t\t\t\t<span class=\"credit\">Alfred R. Waud\/Wikimedia Commons<\/span>\t\t\t<\/figcaption>\n\n\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"slideshow__wrapper___Aebb- item-4\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t<figure class=\"slideshow__figure___DHfIZ\">\n\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"474\" height=\"383\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"A black-and-white photo of President Franklin Roosevelt sitting at a desk and signing papers\" data-attachment-id=\"3145178\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_4-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_4-1.jpg?fit=680%2C550&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"680,550\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_4\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1930s, Threat:&lt;\/strong&gt; &lt;strong&gt;Executive Aggrandizement&lt;br \/&gt;&#10;&lt;\/strong&gt;During the Great Depression, President Franklin Roosevelt pushed for reforms and regulations that gave the executive branch unprecedented control over banks and the stock market. During World War II, he expanded his office\u2019s ability to spy on everyday Americans.&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_4-1.jpg?fit=474%2C383&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_4-1.jpg?fit=556%2C450&amp;ssl=1\"\/>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"slideshow__gallery-caption___jcoF1\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"caption\"><strong>1930s, Threat:<\/strong> <strong>Executive Aggrandizement\n<\/strong>During the Great Depression, President Franklin Roosevelt pushed for reforms and regulations that gave the executive branch unprecedented control over banks and the stock market. During World War II, he expanded his office\u2019s ability to spy on everyday Americans.<\/span>\t\t\t\t<span class=\"credit\">Library of Congress<\/span>\t\t\t<\/figcaption>\n\n\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"slideshow__wrapper___Aebb- item-5\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t<figure class=\"slideshow__figure___DHfIZ\">\n\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"474\" height=\"383\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"A color photo of President Richard Nixon sitting at desk with microphones\" data-attachment-id=\"3145179\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_5-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_5-1.jpg?fit=680%2C550&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"680,550\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_5\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1970s, Threat: Executive Aggrandizement&lt;br \/&gt;&#10;&lt;\/strong&gt;President Richard Nixon heightened surveillance of Americans critical of the Vietnam War and members of the Democratic Party. That included a botched wiretapping of Democratic National Committee headquarters in what became known as the Watergate scandal. Nixon resigned after facing impeachment.&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_5-1.jpg?fit=474%2C383&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_5-1.jpg?fit=556%2C450&amp;ssl=1\"\/>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"slideshow__gallery-caption___jcoF1\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"caption\"><strong>1970s, Threat: Executive Aggrandizement\n<\/strong>President Richard Nixon heightened surveillance of Americans critical of the Vietnam War and members of the Democratic Party. That included a botched wiretapping of Democratic National Committee headquarters in what became known as the Watergate scandal. Nixon resigned after facing impeachment.<\/span>\t\t\t\t<span class=\"credit\">National Archives &amp; Records Administration<\/span>\t\t\t<\/figcaption>\n\n\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\n<\/li>\t<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless of how one calculates or interprets global trends, the odds of the United States <a href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/00104140231168363\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">turning into an autocrac<\/a>y are extremely low, political scientist Daniel Treisman of UCLA argued in 2023 in <em>Comparative Political Studies<\/em>. V-Dem data suggest that both wealth and duration protect a democratic country from reverting to autocracy. No democracy in the dataset that has survived for over 43 years has ever failed, Treisman notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treisman\u2019s work builds on political scientists\u2019 long-standing observation that capitalism, and the wealth such a system generates, is linked to democracy. But trends over the last few decades suggest that <a href=\"https:\/\/muse.jhu.edu\/article\/917802\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the link might be weakening<\/a>, Riedl and colleagues argued in a 2023 preprint in <em>World Politics<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treisman didn\u2019t include countries that have democratized over the last several decades, and he took a narrow approach to understanding the process of autocratization, Riedl says. \u201cTreisman and others tend to focus on full regime change, democratic death, which is indeed very rare.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Subtler measures that look at the weakening of democratic systems paint a more nuanced picture. Riedl\u2019s team analyzed more than 100 episodes of democratic erosion across all countries in the V-Dem dataset since 1990. Thirty-eight of the 202 countries in the dataset experienced statistically significant reductions in democracy scores. Roughly half of those countries exceeded wealth levels thought to protect against such erosion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What factors play a role in destabilizing democracy?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Political scientists have typically focused on forces that stabilize democracies in capitalist societies, such as wealth, education and labor, Riedl says. But they have paid less attention to <a href=\"https:\/\/muse.jhu.edu\/article\/917802\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">capitalism\u2019s destabilizing forces<\/a>, chiefly endemic inequality. That inequality, coupled with polarization \u2014 both a cause and effect of backsliding \u2014 helps promote populist leaders promising to make the system work for every\u00adday people, regardless of whether the proposed solutions adhere to democratic principles, Riedl says. Such populist leaders may come to power through legitimate elections but then pursue autocratic agendas by weakening systems of checks and balances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, Hungary appeared to be a stable democracy during the 1990s and 2000s, with liberal democracy scores above 0.7. Those scores began plummeting when Viktor Orb\u00e1n became prime minister in 2010, dropping to just over 0.3 by 2023. Orb\u00e1n has spent years chipping away at the courts\u2019 independence, seeking to put the judicial system under control of the ruling party, packing the courts with partisan judges and extending judicial term limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChanging the composition of the courts is a really significant pathway to authoritarianism,\u201d Riedl says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the United States, four factors could trigger democratic backsliding, political scientists Suzanne Mettler of Cornell University and Robert Lieberman of Johns Hopkins University wrote in March in the <em>Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science<\/em>. Those factors are polarization, conflicts over belonging, economic inequality and executive aggrandizement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The January 2021 insurrection, in which all four factors converged for the first time in U.S. history, was a particularly troubling threat because it violates Przeworski\u2019s basic tenet of peaceful transition of power as core to democracy, Mettler says. \u201cYou have to accept the outcome and let the winner govern. And if you get away from that, you just do not have democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What helps keep democracy strong?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Finding and utilizing points of resilience, such as the courts, legislatures or a vibrant independent press, are key to strengthening democracy, according to experts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Brazil, for instance, the courts determined that former President Jair Bolsonaro had abused his power when he claimed, without evidence, that the country\u2019s election system was rigged ahead of his 2022 loss to Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva. In June 2023, justices blocked Bolsonaro from seeking re-election until 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even when voters believe checks and balances are weak, their voices, coupled with a robust media, can ward off threats, Riedl says. In 2023, she coauthored 15 in-depth case studies of countries showing signs of autocratization for the U.S. Agency for International Development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"671\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_inline_1030.jpg?resize=1030%2C671&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"A photo of a large group of people outside in the winter holding signs and candles in protest.\" class=\"wp-image-3145005\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_inline_1030.jpg?w=1030&amp;ssl=1 1030w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_inline_1030.jpg?resize=588%2C383&amp;ssl=1 588w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_inline_1030.jpg?resize=691%2C450&amp;ssl=1 691w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_inline_1030.jpg?resize=286%2C186&amp;ssl=1 286w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_inline_1030.jpg?resize=768%2C500&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/101924_sg_democracy_inline_1030.jpg?resize=890%2C580&amp;ssl=1 890w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><span class=\"caption wp-caption-3145005\">In 2016, South Korea\u2019s National Assembly impeached President Park Geun-hye after a corruption scandal involving the president triggered protests.<\/span><span class=\"credit wp-credit-3145005\">Lee Jin-man\/AP Photo<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>South Korea, for instance, shows the need for constant vigilance. The country recovered from an autocratic turn in the last decade but continues to oscillate between democratic regression and recovery, according to the V-Dem project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The country\u2019s score went from 0.6 in 2014 to 0.8 a few years later due, in part, to intense media exposure and coverage of then-President Park Geun-hye\u2019s central role in a massive corruption scandal. That reporting triggered months-long candlelight rallies demanding Park\u2019s impeachment. The country\u2019s independent National Assembly impeached Park in December 2016. In March 2017, the courts upheld the impeachment and forced Park out of office. Recent reports, though, show that the country\u2019s scores are now back in the 0.6 range due to the current administration\u2019s punishment of members of the previous presidential administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The United States has strong points of democratic resilience, Coppedge says. That includes powerful, independent media outlets and civic society organizations, intense competition between political parties, and public engagement at all levels in the process, whether it\u2019s learning about candidates\u2019 positions, supporting candidates through actions like canvassing and phone-banking and, most essential, voting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cInstitutions and government leaders,\u201d Riedl says, \u201ccan be empowered to be agents of democracy when they are given that push from below.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n<br>\r\n<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/article\/united-states-democracy-decline-science\">Source link <\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The United States\u2019 reputation as an exemplar of democracy appears to be eroding. In a poll taken earlier this year, almost three-quarters of U.S. respondents agreed that the country\u2019s democracy \u201cused to be a good example for other countries to follow, but has not been in recent years.\u201d People elsewhere appear to share that sentiment. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":156587,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/101924_sg_democracy_sidebar_1-2","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[606],"tags":[4785,2384,671,252,221],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156586"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=156586"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156586\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":156588,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156586\/revisions\/156588"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/156587"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=156586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=156586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=156586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}