{"id":204173,"date":"2024-12-29T17:19:11","date_gmt":"2024-12-29T17:19:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/29\/labour-would-lose-almost-200-seats-in-highly-unstable-parliament-if-election-held-today-poll-suggests\/"},"modified":"2024-12-29T17:19:11","modified_gmt":"2024-12-29T17:19:11","slug":"labour-would-lose-almost-200-seats-in-highly-unstable-parliament-if-election-held-today-poll-suggests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/29\/labour-would-lose-almost-200-seats-in-highly-unstable-parliament-if-election-held-today-poll-suggests\/","title":{"rendered":"Labour would lose almost 200 seats in ‘highly unstable’ parliament if election held today, poll suggests"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Labour<\/div>


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Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests.<\/p>\n

While Sir Keir Starmer<\/a><\/strong> would still come out on top, it would be in a “highly fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats.<\/p>\n

More in Common, which used the data of more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP)<\/a><\/strong> system is “struggling to function” in the new world of multi-party politics, and if the results come true it would make government formation “difficult”.<\/p>\n

The model estimates Labour<\/a><\/strong> would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

According to the analysis, Labour would lose 87 seats to the Tories overall, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP – with “red wall” gains at the July election almost entirely reversed.<\/p>\n

Nigel Farage’s Reform party<\/a> <\/strong>would emerge as the third largest in the House of Commons, increasing its seat total 14-fold to 72.<\/p>\n

A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform – the main beneficiary of the declining popularity of Labour and the Tories – including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.<\/p>\n

Wes Streeting<\/a><\/strong>, the health secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, the analysis suggests.<\/p>\n

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model is “not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election”, which is not expected until 2029.<\/p>\n

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But he said the polling highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s vote, and that the UK’s First Past the Post system “is struggling to deal” with it.<\/p>\n

Under the UK’s FPTP system, the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes the MP and candidates from other parties get nothing.<\/p>\n

There has long been criticism that this can generate disproportionate results.<\/p>\n

At the July election for example, Labour won 411 seats out of 650 on just under 34% of the popular vote.<\/p>\n

Reform UK took 14.3% of the popular vote – the third party by vote share – but only won five seats.<\/p>\n

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Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player<\/p>\n

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Farage attacks UK’s voting system<\/span>
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Tories would ‘struggle to come close’ to forming government<\/strong><\/p>\n

More in Common’s analysis found 271 seats would be won on under a third of the vote.<\/p>\n

Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Greens on two.<\/p>\n

The Tories would be highest in terms of national vote share – at 26% compared with Labour’s 25% – but this would still be their second-worst vote share in history and they would “struggle to come even close” to forming a majority government without making gains against Reform on the right or the Lib Dems on the left, Mr Tryl said.<\/p>\n

In a post on X, he said he had “no idea” what the model would mean for coalition building if it became a reality at the next election, saying government formation would be “difficult”.<\/p>\n

Read More:<\/strong>
Major political consequences for Farage, Badenoch and the Tories ahead in 2025<\/a>
Embattled Starmer released Christmas message<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\n Tory leader Kemi Badenoch
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More in Common used the MRP technique<\/a><\/strong>, which uses large amounts of individual and constituency-level data.<\/p>\n

‘Uncertain future’<\/strong><\/p>\n

The results are similar to a model by JL Partners published this week, which shows Labour would lose 155 seats, leaving it on 256, if an election were held today.<\/p>\n

The analysis, which used council by-election data, put the Tories on track to win 208 seats, Reform on 71, the Lib Dems on 66 and the SNP on six.<\/p>\n

If the results played out at the next election, it would “make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future”, JL Partners said.<\/p>\n

The results are the latest in a series of grim polls for Labour, who are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment<\/a><\/strong> and PR nightmares like the freebies row<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Labour are now on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War<\/a><\/strong>, a Sky News analysis has found.<\/p>\n

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Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player<\/p>\n


\n \"Party
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Party leaders\u2019 Christmas messages<\/span>
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However, history suggests all is not yet lost for the party, who have previously rebounded from historic lows.<\/p>\n

And polling experts have told Sky News they have “certainly got time” to turn things around<\/a><\/strong> – and must focus on delivery and improving their messaging to the public.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


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Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests. While Sir Keir Starmer would still come out on top, it would be in a “highly fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats. More in Common, which used the data […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":204174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/e3.365dm.com\/24\/07\/768x432\/skynews-nigel-farage-media_6618758.jpg?20240818112341","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[603],"tags":[50,3502,8070,843,210,3321,2775,2315,3433,1603,160734],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204173"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=204173"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204173\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":204175,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204173\/revisions\/204175"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/204174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=204173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=204173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=204173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}