{"id":214093,"date":"2025-01-13T12:26:33","date_gmt":"2025-01-13T12:26:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/13\/what-an-upended-mideast-means-for-trump-and-u-s-gulf-allies\/"},"modified":"2025-01-13T12:26:33","modified_gmt":"2025-01-13T12:26:33","slug":"what-an-upended-mideast-means-for-trump-and-u-s-gulf-allies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/13\/what-an-upended-mideast-means-for-trump-and-u-s-gulf-allies\/","title":{"rendered":"What an Upended Mideast Means for Trump and U.S. Gulf Allies"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/09\/multimedia\/xxtrump-gulf-01-cwpm\/xxtrump-gulf-01-cwpm-facebookJumbo.jpg?fit=1050,549&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"What an Upended Mideast Means for Trump and U.S. Gulf Allies\" title=\"What an Upended Mideast Means for Trump and U.S. Gulf Allies\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">When Donald J. Trump was last president of the United States, the wealthy monarchies of the Persian Gulf had a mostly harmonious relationship with his administration. As Mr. Trump prepares to return to the White House, the leaders of those Gulf countries have generally welcomed him back.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But this time around, the Gulf states and Mr. Trump appear to be diverging on several cornerstone issues, like Israel and Iran. Differences over energy policies could also be a source of friction.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It is unlikely that there will be major tensions or ruptures with U.S. allies in the Gulf. But Mr. Trump will be encountering a region that has seen drastic shifts since Israel launched its <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/news-event\/israel-hamas-gaza\" title=\"\">war on Gaza<\/a> in response to the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/issue\/world\/2024\/10\/21\/the-oct-7-attacks\" title=\"\">Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023<\/a>, in which the Israeli authorities say about 1,200 people were killed and about 250 taken hostage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The war in Gaza, in which at least 45,000 people have been killed, according to health officials in the enclave, has rippled across the region. In Lebanon, the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah has been battered by more than a year of fighting against Israel. And in Syria, rebels <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/12\/21\/world\/middleeast\/assad-regime-syria-final-days.html\" title=\"\">toppled the regime<\/a> of Bashar al-Assad.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Now, while Mr. Trump <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/17\/us\/politics\/trump-israel-middle-east.html\" title=\"\">is filling his cabinet<\/a> with Iran hawks and staunch defenders of Israel, Gulf leaders have publicly been urging a softer stance on Iran and a tougher line on Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">They have also been calling on the United States to stay engaged with the region.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For now, the Trump administration has appeared eager to engage with the Gulf powerhouses of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In December, Mr. Trump\u2019s pick as his envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, was in the Emirati capital, Abu Dhabi, where he <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/12\/10\/us\/politics\/eric-trump-cryptocurrency-conference.html\" title=\"\">attended a Bitcoin conference<\/a> along with Eric Trump, the president-elect\u2019s son. He also went to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/12\/13\/trump-middle-east-saudi-relations-deal-mbs\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Axios<\/a> reported.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Here\u2019s a closer look at the issues facing Mr. Trump as he navigates an evolving relationship with his traditional Gulf allies.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-5c65a89d\">Engagement in the Mideast<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One of the clearest calls in the Gulf for Mr. Trump to avoid an isolationist agenda came from Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former head of Saudi Arabia\u2019s intelligence services.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In an <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/opinion\/comment\/2024\/11\/08\/a-letter-to-donald-trump-from-prince-turki-al-faisal\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">open letter to the U.S. president-elect published in November<\/a> in The National, an Abu Dhabi-based newspaper, Prince Turki referred to an assassination attempt against Mr. Trump and expressed his belief that \u201cGod spared your life\u201d in part so Mr. Trump could continue the work he had started in the Middle East during his first term. That mission was to bring \u201cPEACE, with capital letters,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">During his first term, Mr. Trump\u2019s administration brokered the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/09\/15\/us\/politics\/trump-israel-peace-emirates-bahrain.html\" title=\"\">Abraham Accords<\/a> that saw several Arab countries establishing ties with Israel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A similar message to Prince Turki\u2019s was delivered a few days later by Anwar Gargash, an adviser to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/08\/08\/world\/middleeast\/uae-russia-china-us.html\" title=\"\">Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed<\/a>, the U.A.E. president, at a conference in Abu Dhabi. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">With the Gulf surrounded by an increasingly turbulent region, Mr. Gargash said, American leadership and partnership remained essential. \u201cWe need robust leadership that balances humanitarian concerns with strategic interests,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-3ccb48a\">Going Harder on Israel<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On Israel, the most striking shift in messaging in the Gulf has come from the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, the crown prince. Speaking at an Arab League summit in Riyadh recently, Prince Mohammed for the first time called the Israeli military campaign in Gaza <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/video\/f04wU9Zf\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">a \u201cgenocide.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Just before the war in Gaza erupted in October 2023, Saudi Arabia appeared to be on the verge of forging diplomatic relations with Israel without fulfilling its longstanding precondition for doing so \u2014 the establishment of a Palestinian state. Such a deal would have reshaped the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Under one plan, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in exchange for stronger defense ties with the United States and American support for a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But recent statements by Prince Mohammed suggest that any deals are a long way off.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In addition to his statement referring to genocide in Gaza, he has also made it clear that <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/09\/19\/world\/middleeast\/saudi-israel-relations.html\" title=\"\">Saudi Arabia will not establish diplomatic relations<\/a> with Israel until a Palestinian state is created. That is still a distant prospect given strong opposition to such a state within the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI think that the crown prince wanted to make his position clear and beyond any shadow of a doubt,\u201d said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi businessman who is close to the kingdom\u2019s ruling family.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The United Arab Emirates \u2014 a signatory to the Abraham Accords \u2014 has also signaled a hardened stance toward Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The U.A.E. foreign minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, told his Israeli counterpart last week that the Emirates would \u201cspare no effort supporting Palestinians.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Despite Saudi Arabia\u2019s public stance on the status of a normalization deal, U.S. diplomats have indicated that the kingdom may be privately open to advancing one under a second Trump presidency \u2014 contingent upon a permanent cease-fire in Gaza and a tangible commitment by Israel toward a path to Palestinian statehood.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cAll of that is ready to go if the opportunity presents itself with a cease-fire in Gaza as well as understandings on a pathway forward for the Palestinians,\u201d the departing U.S. secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, said on Wednesday. \u201cSo, there\u2019s tremendous opportunity there.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-ef85e2a\">D\u00e9tente With Iran?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">During Mr. Trump\u2019s first term, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates championed his administration\u2019s hawkish stance on Iran, seeing Tehran as a dangerous rival in the region.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">They cheered when Mr. Trump <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/05\/08\/world\/middleeast\/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html\" title=\"\">withdrew the United States from a nuclear deal with Iran<\/a> and hailed his decision to authorize the assassination of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/01\/03\/obituaries\/qassem-soleimani-dead.html\" title=\"\">Qassim Suleimani<\/a>, the general who directed Iran\u2019s militias and proxy forces around the Middle East, in January 2020.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But the dynamics of the region have changed since Mr. Trump\u2019s first term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Saudi Arabia and Iran reached <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/03\/11\/us\/politics\/saudi-arabia-iran-china-biden.html\" title=\"\">an accord<\/a> in March 2023 that reduced tensions in the Persian Gulf and opened the door to high-level diplomatic contacts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-8\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Bahrain, after years of tension with Iran, has made <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/gulf\/2024\/06\/24\/bahrain-and-iran-agree-to-start-talks-on-resuming-ties\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">overtures to the Iranian government<\/a>, with King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa saying there was \u201cno reason to delay\u201d the resumption of diplomatic relations. The tiny island kingdom also <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bna.bh\/en\/HRHPremierissuedEdict33\/HMKingissuesdecrees50,51,52\/BahraincondemnsmilitaryactiononIrancallsforimmediatedeescalation.aspx?cms=q8FmFJgiscL2fwIzON1%2BDs9N2RJkPDg%2Fdmvgji6FTPU%3D\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">condemned<\/a> Israel\u2019s targeting of Iran last October, when a shadow war between the two countries <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/25\/world\/middleeast\/why-did-israel-attack-iran.html?searchResultPosition=9\" title=\"\">broke out into the open<\/a> with tit-for-tat attacks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-9\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For Saudi Arabia, the goal is clear: to create a stable regional environment conducive to Prince Mohammed\u2019s dream of diversifying the oil-dependent Saudi economy. For Iran, decades of economic and political isolation, compounded by rising domestic unrest, have made reconciliation with Riyadh a necessity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">There are also indications that Iran might be open to negotiating with Mr. Trump. Many former officials, pundits and newspaper editorials in Iran have <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/11\/world\/middleeast\/iran-trump-election-deal.html\" title=\"\">openly called for the government to engage with Mr. Trump<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So far, Mr. Trump, too, appears open at least in charting a different course from the \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign of his first term. In November, Elon Musk, a close adviser to Mr. Trump, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/14\/world\/middleeast\/elon-musk-iran-trump.html\" title=\"\">met with Iran\u2019s ambassador to the United Nations<\/a>, Iranian officials said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe have to make a deal because the consequences are impossible,\u201d Mr. Trump said in September, referring to the threat of Iran\u2019s pursuing nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-1c934b86\">Possible Frictions Over Oil<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">While the Gulf Cooperation Council countries \u2014 Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates \u2014 appear open to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/07\/world\/middleeast\/saudi-arabia-trump-election.html\" title=\"\">Mr. Trump\u2019s transactional approach to diplomacy<\/a>, they could find themselves at odds with his economic policies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-10\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A central promise of his campaign was to bolster U.S. oil and gas production, a move that could hurt Gulf economies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If the United States increases oil production, as Mr. Trump <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/07\/business\/energy-environment\/trump-oil-gas.html\" title=\"\">has pledged<\/a>, producers in the Gulf would have less scope to raise output without prompting a price drop. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-11\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIncreased U.S. oil exploration and production will lower prices and jeopardize the oil-driven economies of the Gulf,\u201d Bader al-Saif, an associate fellow at the London-based research institute Chatham House, said in a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2024\/11\/gulf-will-seek-manage-trump-through-self-reliance-and-pragmatism\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">recent report<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump is also expected to accelerate liquefied natural gas projects, reversing President Biden\u2019s freeze on permits and increasing U.S. exports, particularly to Europe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Qatar, one of the largest producers of the gas alongside the United States, would most likely be most affected, but it has so far played down its concerns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/13\/world\/middleeast\/trump-middle-east-allies-israel-iran-oil.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When Donald J. Trump was last president of the United States, the wealthy monarchies of the Persian Gulf had a mostly harmonious relationship with his administration. As Mr. Trump prepares to return to the White House, the leaders of those Gulf countries have generally welcomed him back. But this time around, the Gulf states and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":214094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/09\/multimedia\/xxtrump-gulf-01-cwpm\/xxtrump-gulf-01-cwpm-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[7411,163575,34927,105087,19606,19138,7274,169089,13294,52,221,169090],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214093"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=214093"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214093\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":214095,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214093\/revisions\/214095"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/214094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=214093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=214093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=214093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}