{"id":219670,"date":"2025-01-20T10:50:12","date_gmt":"2025-01-20T10:50:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/20\/how-mexico-is-preparing-for-tariffs-negotiations-with-trump\/"},"modified":"2025-01-20T10:50:12","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T10:50:12","slug":"how-mexico-is-preparing-for-tariffs-negotiations-with-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/20\/how-mexico-is-preparing-for-tariffs-negotiations-with-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"How Mexico Is Preparing for Tariffs Negotiations With Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/20\/multimedia\/20mexico-negotiation-01-fvqm\/20mexico-negotiation-01-fvqm-facebookJumbo.jpg?ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"How Mexico Is Preparing for Tariffs Negotiations With Trump\" title=\"How Mexico Is Preparing for Tariffs Negotiations With Trump\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For the second time in less than decade, Mexico is preparing to negotiate with President-elect Donald J. Trump, who is threatening the neighboring country with sky-high tariffs, mass deportations and military strikes on cartels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The stakes are huge for Mexico\u2019s 130 million people. Among major economies, Mexico is exceptionally dependent on the United States, sending about 80 percent of its exports to the American market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico\u2019s top negotiators are adopting an assertive stance to negotiating with Mr. Trump this time around. Some of them can draw from experience dealing with the first Trump administration: Mexico\u2019s populist president at the time, Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/07\/08\/world\/americas\/mexico-amlo-trump-meeting.html\" title=\"\">forged a warm relationship<\/a> with Mr. Trump, and Mexico avoided steep tariffs while acceding to demands to curb migration.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe will find a solution because we have structural advantages,\u201d Marcelo Ebrard, the economy minister, said this month, listing factors like greater economic interdependence between the two countries and declines in fentanyl deaths and migration.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico has set the tone of this approach. While Mexico\u2019s government has been unable to meet with the incoming Trump administration, she has blended conciliatory words for Mr. Trump with <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/08\/us\/politics\/mexico-president-mexican-america-trump.html\" title=\"\">rhetorical pushback<\/a> and vows that Mexico could hit back with <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/26\/us\/mexico-tariffs-us-trump.html\" title=\"\">retaliatory tariffs<\/a> of its own.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe coordinate, we collaborate, but we will never become subordinated,\u201d Ms. Sheinbaum said in a speech this month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">At the same time, Ms. Sheinbaum\u2019s government has already mobilized to respond to some of Mr. Trump\u2019s concerns, expanding <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gob.mx\/sspc\/prensa\/el-gabinete-de-seguridad-del-gobierno-de-mexico-informa-acciones-relevantes-del-jueves-26-de-diciembre-de-2024\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">migration deterrence efforts<\/a> and increasing <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/12\/04\/world\/americas\/mexico-fentanyl-seizure.html\" title=\"\">seizures<\/a> of illicit opioids.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The cornerstone of this strategy is a wager that the new administration in Washington needs Mexico, and its fast-expanding, low-cost industrial base, if the United States hopes to counter its largest rival: China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Here are four factors informing Mexico\u2019s preparations for dealing with the new Trump administration.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-3d787c34\">Mexico is increasingly important to the U.S. economy.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico\u2019s economic relationship with the United States has changed considerably since Mr. Trump was last in the White House, especially as a result of the coronavirus pandemic\u2019s disruption of global supply chains.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico eclipsed China in 2023 as the United States\u2019 top trading partner in goods, as manufacturers shifted operations to Mexico to be closer to the American market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Trade ties deepened even further last year, when Mexico displaced China to become the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/02\/07\/business\/economy\/united-states-china-mexico-trade.html\" title=\"\">top source of imports<\/a> for the United States and the top destination for American <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agriculture.com\/mexico-displaces-china-as-top-market-for-u-s-food-and-ag-exports-8743430#:~:text=U.S.%20food%20and%20ag%20sales,data%20tracked%20by%20the%20USDA.\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">food exports<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s an unprecedented level of interdependence,\u201d said Diego Marroqu\u00edn Bitar, a scholar who specializes in North American trade at the Wilson Center, a Washington research group.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico\u2019s government is showcasing these trade ties as it makes the case that imposing U.S. tariffs on Mexico could raise inflation and hurt American consumers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But those deepened ties also leave Mexico with heightened vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One may be remittances. Mexicans working in the United States sent home $63 billion in 2023, twice as much as when Mr. Trump took office eight years ago, and mass deportations could cause that figure to plummet.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Proposals to tax remittances, including a bill sponsored by Vice President-elect JD Vance, are also <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.americasquarterly.org\/article\/trumps-comeback-could-disrupt-latin-americas-remittances\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">gaining momentum<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-72208536\">Migration flows and fentanyl deaths are falling.<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">While Mr. Trump has repeatedly raised alarms about migration from Mexico, illegal crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border are at their <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/10\/us\/politics\/border-immigration-drop-biden.html\" title=\"\">lowest level<\/a> since the summer of 2020. Only about 46,000 people crossed the border illegally in November, the lowest number under President Biden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Biden administration\u2019s <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/08\/24\/us\/politics\/biden-asylum-restrictions.html\" title=\"\">restrictions<\/a> on asylum for migrants contributed to this decline. But so did policies in Mexico, which has sought to dissuade migrants, largely from other Latin American countries, from reaching the U.S. border.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico has broken up <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/mexico-migrant-caravans-trump-tariffs-c4611c47fc53e2c494545a7cef194e88\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">migrant caravans<\/a> and expanded a shadowy <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/14\/world\/americas\/mexico-migrants-busing-border.html\" title=\"\">busing program<\/a> that has transported thousands of migrants from the country\u2019s northern border to sites deep in its south.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Just in the last quarter of 2024, Mexico <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/mexico-detains-almost-half-million-migrants-heading-us-last-quarter-2024-12-27\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">intensified<\/a> this crackdown by detaining about 475,000 migrants, the authorities said, more than double the number held in the first nine months of the year. Most of these migrants are <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eluniversal.com.mx\/nacion\/se-quedan-en-el-pais-98-de-migrantes-indocumentados\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">quickly released<\/a>, allowing them to stay in Mexico; only a small fraction are deported to their home countries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Another issue that Mr. Trump has cited frequently is the impact of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, flowing across the border. After surging to horrifying levels, overdose deaths from illegal drugs are also falling. They were down about 14.5 percent in the 12 months that ended in June 2024 from the same period a year earlier.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Experts say that expanded treatment, prevention and education efforts in the United States <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/21\/health\/overdose-deaths-decline-drug-supply.html\" title=\"\">played a role<\/a> in this decline. While more evidence is needed, U.S. efforts to crack down on chemical precursors from China and the Mexican cartels <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/12\/29\/world\/americas\/inside-fentanyl-lab-mexico.html\" title=\"\">using these chemicals<\/a> to make fentanyl also may be restricting supplies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ms. Sheinbaum has also begun targeting the fentanyl trade. Last month, Mexican security forces <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/12\/04\/world\/americas\/mexico-fentanyl-seizure.html\" title=\"\">captured<\/a> 20 million doses of the drug in the country\u2019s largest synthetic opioid seizure.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-748a3c07\">Cartel violence is still rising over vast areas.<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-8\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Neither declines in border crossings or fentanyl overdoses could much make a difference if Mr. Trump chooses to focus on the cartel bloodshed gripping large parts of Mexico as justification for imposing tariffs on its exports.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Clashes between rival cartel factions have recently turned the northwest state of Sinaloa into a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/08\/world\/americas\/mexico-sinaloa-cartel-war.html\" title=\"\">war zone<\/a>. Brutal political <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/01\/world\/americas\/mexico-mayor-cartels-deportations.html\" title=\"\">assassinations<\/a> have cast a pall over Guerrero in southwest Mexico.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Turf battles in Guanajuato, a center for car manufacturing northwest of Mexico City, have been marked by one <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/mexico-shootout-gunmen-killed-guanajuato-state-cartels\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">massacre<\/a> after <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/mayor-killed-central-mexico-wine-entrepreneur-murdered-guanajuato\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">another<\/a> in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-9\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">During his <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/10\/03\/us\/politics\/trump-mexico-cartels-republican.html\" title=\"\">previous term<\/a>, and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.donaldjtrump.com\/agenda47\/president-donald-j-trump-declares-war-on-cartels\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">again<\/a> while campaigning for his new term, Mr. Trump raised the possibility of taking military action against cartels as a way of limiting their smuggling of illicit drugs into the United States. A potential designation of these groups as \u201cterrorist organizations\u201d could open the way for such moves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico\u2019s government has long viewed such a possibility as a nearly unthinkable violation of its sovereignty. But some former officials with previous experience negotiating with Mr. Trump warn that Mexico needs to take such threats seriously.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ms. Sheinbaum highlighted last week the willingness of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2025\/01\/15\/us\/rubio-confirmation-secretary-state\" title=\"\">Marco Rubio<\/a>, Mr. Trump\u2019s pick for secretary of state, to collaborate on curbing cartel activities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe take him at his word,\u201d Ms. Sheinbaum said of Mr. Rubio.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cTrump 2.0 is going to be a different Trump,\u201d said Ildefonso Guajardo, a former economy minister who negotiated with the Trump administration in 2017 and 2018. \u201cHis team will be far less balanced in terms of trying to make him aware of the consequences of some decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And while fentanyl deaths are declining in the United States, the drug is still claiming tens of thousands of lives each year. The explosion of violence in Sinaloa highlights how the groups responsible for the fentanyl trade remain active and well armed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-10\">\n<p><h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-1b2bba87\">So is China\u2019s economic profile in Mexico.<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-11\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A recent <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/12\/09\/business\/china-mexico-ev-electric-vehicles.html\" title=\"\">flood of imported Chinese cars<\/a> into Mexico has increased tensions over the inroads that China is making into key industries in North America.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico, which has a $105 billion trade deficit with China, moved quickly in recent weeks to assuage concerns that China could use its foothold in Mexico as a way to gain greater access to U.S. markets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico imposed tariffs viewed as <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Economy\/Trade-war\/Temu-and-Shein-face-fallout-from-Mexico-s-new-tariff\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">targeting<\/a> online Chinese retailers like Temu and Shein, then unveiled a new industrial policy last week aimed at <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/mexicos-sheinbaum-lays-out-roadmap-make-country-an-economic-powerhouse-2025-01-13\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">reducing<\/a> imports from China while bolstering supply chains to the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">With such measures, Mexico\u2019s government is seeking to drive home its contention that the United States needs Mexico to confront the greater economic threat of China. But will that be enough for Mr. Trump?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-12\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If not, and if ties with Washington sour significantly, Mexico still has a kind of \u201cnuclear option\u201d involving strengthening its economic ties with China, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/opinion-mexico-strike-back-trump-110046615.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">according<\/a> to Scott Morgenstern, a professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cMexico could turn to Washington\u2019s biggest economic rival at a time when Beijing is seeking to assert more influence across Latin America,\u201d Mr. Morgenstern said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/20\/world\/americas\/mexico-tariffs-negotiations-trump.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the second time in less than decade, Mexico is preparing to negotiate with President-elect Donald J. Trump, who is threatening the neighboring country with sky-high tariffs, mass deportations and military strikes on cartels. The stakes are huge for Mexico\u2019s 130 million people. Among major economies, Mexico is exceptionally dependent on the United States, sending [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":219671,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/20\/multimedia\/20mexico-negotiation-01-fvqm\/20mexico-negotiation-01-fvqm-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17375,163575,90287,164053,2196,1296,31857,18497,88818,61721,18165,52,1021],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219670"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=219670"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219670\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":219672,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219670\/revisions\/219672"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/219671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=219670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=219670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=219670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}