{"id":223859,"date":"2025-01-25T12:32:19","date_gmt":"2025-01-25T12:32:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/25\/his-opponents-sidelined-lukashenko-is-set-for-a-7th-term-in-belarus\/"},"modified":"2025-01-25T12:32:19","modified_gmt":"2025-01-25T12:32:19","slug":"his-opponents-sidelined-lukashenko-is-set-for-a-7th-term-in-belarus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/25\/his-opponents-sidelined-lukashenko-is-set-for-a-7th-term-in-belarus\/","title":{"rendered":"His Opponents Sidelined, Lukashenko Is Set for a 7th Term in Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/25\/multimedia\/25belarus-01-kwmh\/25belarus-01-kwmh-facebookJumbo.jpg?ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"His Opponents Sidelined, Lukashenko Is Set for a 7th Term in Belarus\" title=\"His Opponents Sidelined, Lukashenko Is Set for a 7th Term in Belarus\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">When Aleksandr G. Lukashenko last ran for president of Belarus, the former Soviet republic he has led since 1994, he faced an unusual phenomenon: rival candidates who actually tried to win. His eventual victory in that election, in 2020, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/08\/19\/world\/europe\/eu-belarus-election.html?searchResultPosition=3\" title=\"\">widely regarded as fraudulent<\/a>, was met with nationwide protests, a subsequent brutal crackdown supported by Russia and then Western penalties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This time, in a presidential election set for Sunday, Mr. Lukashenko\u2019s all-but-certain victory \u2014 his seventh in a row \u2014 is likely to be smoother. He has allowed four other, state-approved candidates to run, but they compete only in showering praise on him. Candidates who could pose a threat to his rule have all been jailed or forced into exile. He controls the media and all levers of power in his country.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThere is no genuine choice \u2014 all we have is this farcical facade of the candidates who all come from pro-government parties,\u201d said Katia Glod, a nonresident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington who is originally from Belarus.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt is like in Russia now: There are no candidates who can represent an alternative view,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Lukashenko is so confident of winning another term that he has eschewed campaigning, saying he was too busy with tasks like testing a new Belarusian-made ax. State media on Thursday <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/eng.belta.by\/president\/view\/lukashenko-tests-his-new-wood-chopping-axe-164811-2025\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">showed him chopping wood<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Two decades after the United States declared Belarus \u201cthe last remaining true dictatorship in the heart of Europe,\u201d Mr. Lukashenko is determined to put the 2020 election behind him and prove to his country \u2014 and to Russia \u2014 that his grip is firm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His continued rule will do little to shift the dynamics of a region disrupted by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Belarus was a staging ground for Moscow\u2019s attack, and Mr. Lukashenko remains an ardent ally of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Mr. Lukashenko has also shown signs of reaching out to the West by issuing a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/12\/24\/world\/europe\/belarus-lukashenko-putin-west-sanctions.html\" title=\"\">wave of presidential pardons<\/a> for people jailed during the 2020 protests, apparently in a bid to reduce the sanctions that have punished his country for years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">None of the leaders of the opposition in 2020 have been freed, however, and Mr. Lukashenko has locked up large numbers of opposition sympathizers before Sunday\u2019s election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So it is unclear where Mr. Lukashenko\u2019s attempt to maneuver between East and West, a game he has played ruthlessly in the past, will leave Belarus.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Lukashenko remains an important ally of Russia; he said recently that Belarus had Russian nuclear weapons on its soil and would host what Moscow has called its new <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/21\/world\/europe\/russia-ballistic-missile-ukraine-war.html\" title=\"\">hypersonic ballistic missile<\/a> if it is deployed. But <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/02\/16\/world\/europe\/belarus-lukashenko-ukraine-war.html\" title=\"\">he also does not want to be drawn further into the war in Ukraine<\/a> and has pushed back against requests from Russia to send troops.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A relaxation of Western penalties would lift the economy. Belarus has been battered by the sanctions, particularly those against potash, a fertilizer ingredient that is one of the pillars of the economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But so far, there has been no indication from Washington or Brussels that the strategy of releasing some prisoners is working. Some analysts say he will be closely watching for the West\u2019s response to the elections.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIf the regime sees that the West is taking a more or less neutral stance on the election, maybe it will decide to release some high-profile prisoners to bring tensions with the West one notch down,\u201d Ms. Glod said. \u201cIf not, maybe they will stop altogether.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">None of Mr. Lukashenko\u2019s opponents in the election have even pretended that the outcome is a question.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Wrapping up a TV debate with three other candidates (Mr. Lukashenko did not participate), the Communist Party candidate Sergei Syrankov <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iVYmR-tWdQc\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> Monday that he wanted to be \u201chonest,\u201d and that the only point of the vote was to see who came in second. \u201cEveryone in this studio knows that Aleksandr Lukashenko is going to win,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The electoral landscape this year is vastly different from the political awakening that took place in 2020, when hundreds of thousands of people turned out to support candidates speaking out against Mr. Lukashenko.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A former boss of a collective farm in Soviet times, Mr. Lukashenko won his first presidential election, a relatively fair contest, in 1994 as an anti-establishment candidate promising to root out corruption and give a voice to ordinary people.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Six elections since have been widely dismissed as shams that concealed rising discontent. Before the 2020 election, even supporters began to wonder whether it might be time for a change when Mr. Lukashenko responded to the Covid-19 pandemic by telling people to protect their health by riding tractors, drinking vodka and taking saunas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He jailed the two main presidential hopefuls in 2020 \u2014 Viktor Babariko and Sergei Tikhanovsky. Mr. Tikhanovsky\u2019s wife, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a political novice, emerged as an accidental leader of the opposition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ms. Tikhanovskaya galvanized opponents to Mr. Lukashenko with a highly popular campaign. But the president\u2019s party machine orchestrated widely documented fraud on election night, which led to months of protests.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Lukashenko eventually cracked down, throwing thousands of opposition supporters into jail. All independent media outlets were shut down, their editors and reporters jailed or pushed into exile. Opposition figures who did not flee were imprisoned.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Five years later, those opposition leaders in exile are telling Belarusians to ignore the election or to vote for \u201cnone of the above.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe\u2019re calling on Belarusians to show their opposition to the regime in any form: refuse to cooperate with the regime, ignore the elections \u2014 and voting for \u2018none of the above\u2019 is also a way of protest,\u201d Ms. Tikhanovskaya, who is based in Lithuania, said in emailed comments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThis is a farce, not an election,\u201d she said. \u201cThere is no room and there can\u2019t be any room for transparency, fair procedures or opposition candidates there.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As in previous elections, Mr. Lukashenko has presented himself as the only safeguard against chaos and strife. He <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/belta.by\/president\/view\/lukashenko-ne-derzhus-za-vlast-sdelaju-vse-dlja-togo-chtoby-tiho-peredat-ee-novomu-pokoleniju-687165-2025\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> recently that he \u201cdoes not cling to power\u201d and that he would \u201cdo my best to hand over power to a new generation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But he did not indicate he would step down any time soon, and has sent the message that he is ready to crack down again if needed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-8\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Belarusian TV recently <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=seg0SwHephQ\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">broadcast<\/a> slickly produced footage of riot police in full gear tackling crowds making trouble outside a mock polling station.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Lukashenko has also <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/belta.by\/society\/view\/tsik-belarus-ne-sozdaet-uchastki-dlja-golosovanija-za-rubezhom-687908-2025\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">banned<\/a> remote voting, disenfranchising hundreds of thousands of Belarusians abroad.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Kiryl Kalbasnikau, 33, a theater technician who fled the country in 2021, said by phone from London that he \u201cwould love to go and vote for \u2018none of the above\u2019\u201d if he could.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Like many Belarusian exiles, Mr. Kalbasnikau, who until recently belonged to the banned <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/topic\/belarus-free-theater\" title=\"\">Free Belarus Theater<\/a>, once thought the regime was on its last legs. Now, he said, he may be looking at 10 more years of rule by Mr. Lukashenko \u2014 and of his own exile.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-9\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt would be a miracle to see my mom and two brothers \u2014 I miss them so much,\u201d said Mr. Kalbasnikau, who has not seen them for nearly four years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Many Belarusians say that the pardons Mr. Lukashenko has been issuing are at least one bright spot.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Ms. Tikhanovskaya, whose husband has been in jail in Belarus for over four years, has no trust in Mr. Lukashenko\u2019s good will.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cRepressions are likely to go on after Jan. 26: Lukashenko knows he cannot stay in power unless he keeps people in fear,\u201d she said, dismissing the pardons as \u201cmanipulation, not a policy change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Andrew Higgins<!-- --> contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/25\/world\/europe\/belarus-election-lukashenko.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When Aleksandr G. Lukashenko last ran for president of Belarus, the former Soviet republic he has led since 1994, he faced an unusual phenomenon: rival candidates who actually tried to win. His eventual victory in that election, in 2020, widely regarded as fraudulent, was met with nationwide protests, a subsequent brutal crackdown supported by Russia [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":223860,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/25\/multimedia\/25belarus-01-kwmh\/25belarus-01-kwmh-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[25917,175986,19560,43104,67,94326,12287,137131,163229,49501,320,13612,175988,6185,175987,175989],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223859"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=223859"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223859\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":223861,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223859\/revisions\/223861"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/223860"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=223859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=223859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=223859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}