{"id":234115,"date":"2025-02-07T17:32:08","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T17:32:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/07\/ecuadors-leader-has-had-a-year-of-chaos-he-is-still-favored-to-win-sundays-election\/"},"modified":"2025-02-07T17:32:08","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T17:32:08","slug":"ecuadors-leader-has-had-a-year-of-chaos-he-is-still-favored-to-win-sundays-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/07\/ecuadors-leader-has-had-a-year-of-chaos-he-is-still-favored-to-win-sundays-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Ecuador\u2019s Leader Has Had a Year of Chaos. He Is Still Favored to Win Sunday\u2019s Election."},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/02\/07\/multimedia\/07ecuador-election-01-plmt\/07ecuador-election-01-plmt-facebookJumbo.jpg?ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Ecuador\u2019s Leader Has Had a Year of Chaos. He Is Still Favored to Win Sunday\u2019s Election.\" title=\"Ecuador\u2019s Leader Has Had a Year of Chaos. He Is Still Favored to Win Sunday\u2019s Election.\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Daniel Noboa was nowhere to be seen. And, yet, he was everywhere.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On balconies. In the arms of various supporters. In the back of a truck. Cardboard cutouts of Mr. Noboa, Ecuador\u2019s president, were ubiquitous at an election rally in a suburb of Quito, the capital, on Wednesday, as they are in many parts of the country.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">They even appear in different outfits \u2014 a suit and presidential sash, a T-shirt and jeans, a tank top and gym shorts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The posters are part of the president\u2019s successful communication strategy ahead of Sunday\u2019s election: short on specific policy proposals but strong on mastery of social media and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@danielnoboaok\/video\/7288483206876187909?lang=en\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">viral trends<\/a> to project an image of youth and vigor to Ecuador\u2019s voters, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/revistagestion.ec\/analisis-sociedad\/panorama-electoral-ecuador-2025-el-peso-decisivo-de-una-nueva-generacion-de\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">the majority of whom are younger than 44<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Supporters and detractors alike have even taken to saying, \u201cThe cardboard is going to win.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Noboa, 37, took office just 15 months ago, after his predecessor called for early elections amid the threat of impeachment over embezzlement accusations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In his short term, he has faced a slew of national and international controversies, an energy crisis, a feud with his vice president, persistent drug-related violence and unemployment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He has also been criticized by opponents and analysts for what they describe as strongman tendencies, including abusing his presidential powers in the name of combating violence and corruption.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And, yet, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/es-ec\/intencion-de-voto-en-ecuador-2025\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">polls<\/a> show, Mr. Noboa, a center-right politician, is the leading candidate in Sunday\u2019s election, and could win enough votes to avoid a runoff.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His popularity, experts say, is buoyed by his branding as a hip and forceful leader, as well as by his truncated term \u2014 many voters don\u2019t blame him for the country\u2019s ills and say he needs more time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His main opponent is Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez, a leftist establishment candidate handpicked by a powerful former president, Rafael Correa, who served from 2007 to 2017. She has drawn support from Mr. Correa\u2019s base of voters, who are eager to return to the prosperity and low homicide rates during his tenure.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But it also hurts her among other Ecuadoreans who remember Mr. Correa\u2019s repressive tactics and corruption scandals. Many Noboa supporters put it simply: Ms. Gonz\u00e1lez represents the past, while Mr. Noboa represents the future.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Noboa\u2019s party, which was created less than a year ago, is predicted to win about a third of the seats in the legislature \u2014 the same as Mr. Correa\u2019s party.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For years Ecuador has been defined by Mr. Correa\u2019s movement, but some say Mr. Noboa has the potential to create a political force of his own.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This is the first time since the Correa years that Ecuador has seen a relatively popular president seeking re-election, and it \u201ccreates the possibility for a type of political stability that Ecuador hasn\u2019t seen really since Correa left office,\u201d said Risa Grais-Targow, the Latin America director for Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ecuadorean presidential elections typically feature two rounds of voting, with the two top candidates in the first round facing off in the second. To win the first round outright, a candidate must win more than 50 percent of the votes, or win 40 percent of the votes with a 10-point margin over the nearest rival.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Just five years ago, Mr. Noboa was a political unknown. After one term as a legislator, he rose unexpectedly from the bottom of the polls to a second-place finish in the first round of presidential elections in 2023, helped, in part, by a strong debate performance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Noboa, a Harvard Kennedy School graduate, comes from one of Ecuador\u2019s wealthiest families. His father, \u00c1lvaro Noboa, who owns an economic empire that includes Bonita Bananas, also ran for president five times, unsuccessfully.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The younger man has been leading the country of nearly 18 million through a particularly bloody period.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Over the past five years, the drug-trafficking industry has expanded in Ecuador, drawing in international criminal groups, unleashing violence in the once-peaceful nation and sending tens of thousands of migrants fleeing to the United States.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Two months after taking office, Mr. Noboa declared a state of internal armed conflict after <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/09\/world\/americas\/ecuador-gang-prison-emergency.html\" title=\"\">several prison riots and an on-air siege of a TV station<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The drastic step, which allowed the military to patrol prisons and streets, was seen as a turning point. Some Ecuadoreans felt the measure was necessary to crack down on gang violence, while others worried it threatened civil liberties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The move initially brought down violence in cities like Guayaquil, but the sense of safety did not last. January <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eluniverso.com\/noticias\/seguridad\/muertes-violentas-de-enero-2025-en-ecuador-superan-cifras-de-inicio-de-anos-anteriores-nota\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">saw more violent deaths<\/a> than any month in the past three years, according to police data.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-8\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In April, Mr. Noboa dispatched police officers to the Mexican Embassy to arrest a politician who had taken refuge there to escape a prison sentence for corruption. Experts called the action a violation of international law on the sanctity of diplomatic missions, and the arrest drew global condemnation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But in Ecuador, the moves boosted Mr. Noboa\u2019s image as a tough-on-crime leader, and Ecuadoreans endorsed his hard-line approach later that month, when they approved a referendum enshrining the increased military presence into law and lengthening prison terms for certain offenses linked to organized crime.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI think he is authoritarian,\u201d said Cristina Guevara, 45, who cares full time for her disabled son. \u201cBut we want him to win because it is the only solution that there is going to be right now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, Mr. Noboa\u2019s approach has been polarizing, and his <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.perfilesdeopinion.com\/images\/pdf\/presidente.pdf\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">approval ratings<\/a> have been carved in half.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Many blamed his harsh strategy for the disappearance in December of four children who were forced into a military patrol car after they were seen playing soccer in the western province of Guayas. Their charred remains were found weeks later, and the case set off outrage and protests against the military.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A judge ordered the detention of 16 military members involved in the disappearance.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">When it comes to his plans for the country, Mr. Noboa has provided little in the way of concrete promises, instead speaking vaguely about throwing \u201cthe old Ecuador\u201d in the trash.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-9\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His success has been in creating a \u201ccharacter,\u201d said Caroline \u00c1vila, an Ecuadorean political analyst. \u201cThis character still does not tell the voter what country he wants to give you.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-10\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ver\u00f3nica D\u00edaz, the national coordinator of Mr. Noboa\u2019s party, said one of his top plans was to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/DanielNoboaOk\/status\/1835737547231969400\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">change the Constitution<\/a> to lift a ban on foreign military bases.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Correa instituted the ban in 2008, pushing out a U.S. military presence that critics say was crucial for fighting international criminal groups.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-11\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Noboa is also openly feuding with his vice president, Ver\u00f3nica Abad, a right-wing business coach. Ecuadorean law requires presidents to cede their duties to the vice president while campaigning, but Mr. Noboa has refused to do so, citing an electoral law that he claimed allowed him to govern and campaign at the same time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The constitutional court rejected that claim on Monday, so Mr. Noboa stopped officially campaigning.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Experts say some of Mr. Noboa\u2019s actions are an overreach of executive authority that could be seen as authoritarian.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cHe\u2019s tended to push the limit in terms of both international and domestic constitutional norms,\u201d said Ms. Grais-Targow. \u201cBut it\u2019s always been done with the banner of security measures or transparency, which I think has helped to contain the political fallout for him.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His supporters see him as a fearless leader willing to make bold decisions for the sake of the country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-12\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Ledy Z\u00fa\u00f1iga, a former justice minister who is running for the National Assembly with Ms. Gonz\u00e1lez\u2019s party, said weakening the country\u2019s democratic norms only makes it harder to address the country\u2019s violence.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cAs long as the institutional framework of the security system is not strengthened, it is very difficult,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Noboa is also one of the few leaders in Latin America who seem to be on good terms with President Trump. He attended his inauguration and has accepted deportation flights.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Noboa\u2019s decision not to actively campaign, following the court\u2019s ruling, makes for an unusual scene on the trail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On Wednesday, the plaza in suburban Quito was packed with thousands of people waiting to hear him speak. Because of the court\u2019s decision, he never did.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-13\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So he ate lunch in a food market while chatting with local vendors. Spectators quickly surrounded him, standing on chairs, snapping selfies and chanting campaign slogans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt was exciting because no president has ever come to this market before,\u201d said Soledad Medina, 60, who sold the president juice. \u201cHe is very young and he is intelligent and would like our Ecuador to change. What we need is a change.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-14\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Le\u00f3n Cabrera<!-- --> contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/07\/world\/americas\/ecuador-presidential-election-noboa.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Daniel Noboa was nowhere to be seen. And, yet, he was everywhere. On balconies. In the arms of various supporters. In the back of a truck. Cardboard cutouts of Mr. Noboa, Ecuador\u2019s president, were ubiquitous at an election rally in a suburb of Quito, the capital, on Wednesday, as they are in many parts of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":234116,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/02\/07\/multimedia\/07ecuador-election-01-plmt\/07ecuador-election-01-plmt-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5435,182789,164813,18928,25197,4133,50,67,182790,37007,1891,182788,4132,61457,137131,11785,76643,1460,568],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234115"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234115"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234115\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":234117,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234115\/revisions\/234117"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/234116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}