{"id":234196,"date":"2025-02-07T19:52:06","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T19:52:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/07\/how-much-can-10000-mexican-troops-achieve-at-the-border\/"},"modified":"2025-02-07T19:52:07","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T19:52:07","slug":"how-much-can-10000-mexican-troops-achieve-at-the-border","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/07\/how-much-can-10000-mexican-troops-achieve-at-the-border\/","title":{"rendered":"How Much Can 10,000 Mexican Troops Achieve at the Border?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/02\/07\/multimedia\/07mexico-nationalguard-01-ztjc\/07mexico-nationalguard-01-ztjc-facebookJumbo.jpg?ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"How Much Can 10,000 Mexican Troops Achieve at the Border?\" title=\"How Much Can 10,000 Mexican Troops Achieve at the Border?\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">During his latest presidential campaign, President Trump bragged about compelling Mexico to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/fact-check-did-donald-trump-get-28000-mexican-soldiers-police-border-1777950\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">deploy 28,000 troops<\/a> to its <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/politica.expansion.mx\/presidencia\/2022\/04\/25\/trump-doblo-a-amlo-para-controlar-la-migracion-esto-dicen-los-datos\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">borders<\/a> during his first administration to avoid tariffs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This week, Mr. Trump and Mexico brokered another deal to send an additional 10,000 Mexican National Guard members to the border to stop the flow of migrants and drugs \u2014 a compromise to once again <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/03\/world\/americas\/mexico-tariffs-trump.html\" title=\"\">stave off U.S. tariffs<\/a>. Mr. Trump has championed the agreement as a victory for the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But analysts and former diplomats who brokered the first troop deployment in 2019 are doubtful that additional soldiers will have much effect thwarting the movement of migrants or drugs, particularly fentanyl.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Instead, they say, the deployment agreed to by President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico may be catering to Mr. Trump\u2019s affinity for deal-making rather than being part of a well-thought-out military campaign.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s a lot of shock and awe, but very little policy,\u201d said Arturo Sarukh\u00e1n, Mexico\u2019s ambassador to Washington during President Felipe Calder\u00f3n\u2019s term from 2006 to 2012, an administration that aggressively pursued cartels inside Mexico, igniting extraordinary levels of violence nationwide.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Mexican government appears to be echoing Mr. Trump\u2019s fondness for a high-profile media blitz with its own.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">After the deal was struck, photos and videos of Mexican soldiers waiting to board military flights and vehicles for their border deployment circulated widely. They mirrored Mr. Trump\u2019s use of American military planes to deport migrants in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But what the Mexico troops will do on the border is unclear. The Mexican defense ministry is known for its lack of transparency, as it is not required to disclose its operations or funding details to Mexico\u2019s congress or the public.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">There are clues from Mr. Trump\u2019s first term, when more than 20,000 Mexican troops were sent to the country\u2019s northern and southern borders and were responsible for erecting checkpoints and breaking up large groups of migrants.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Mexican defense ministry did not respond to questions about the deployment and Ms. Sheinbaum has so far said little about what exactly the force will be responsible for.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mexico already has a significant military presence along the U.S. border. Sam Storr, a Mexico-based analyst who tracks military activity with the Citizen Security Project at the Ibero-American University, said that there was a monthly average of 1,115 National Guardsmen and 7,959 Mexican Army troops as part of immigration enforcement at the country\u2019s northern border in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Adding 10,000 new National Guards members, Mr. Storr said, could \u201cpotentially be a significant increase,\u201d but he also called it \u201cextremely confusing.\u201d He said it was not known if some troops would be rotated out. And, he said, based on public records requests, it is the Mexican Army that has traditionally carried out more drug seizures \u2014 and has a larger presence in northern states.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The National Guard, Mr. Storr said, \u201cseems to be an auxiliary force,\u201d filling gaps for state police and contributing to customs enforcement.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">U.S. Border Patrol officials recorded roughly 71,000 illegal crossings at the end of Mr. Trump\u2019s first term in December 2020. While <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/09\/01\/us\/politics\/migrant-families-border-biden.html\" title=\"\">crossings hit record highs under President Joseph R. Biden in 2023<\/a>, they dropped to about 47,000 by December 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The bigger question is what additional troops can do, if anything, to stanch the flow of fentanyl into the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s Whac-a-Mole,\u201d said Mr. Sarukhan, the former ambassador. \u201cMost of the fentanyl goes through legal points of entry into the U.S., not between them, and that\u2019s where most troops will be deployed: at illegal points of entry.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The challenge of fentanyl interception, analysts say, is threefold. First, fentanyl is compact, with only small quantities of the drug needed to get a lot of people high, unlike cocaine. It is much easier to smuggle into the United States in personal vehicles compared with other drugs. Mexican security forces do not search vehicles at U.S. ports of entry; that happens on the American side of the border.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Second, a majority of fentanyl smugglers are not illegal migrants, as Mr. Trump claims, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/09\/28\/world\/americas\/fentanyl-drug-smugglers-us.html\" title=\"\">but American citizens<\/a> going through border crossings. In 2023, American citizens were responsible for <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ussc.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/pdf\/research-and-publications\/quick-facts\/Fentanyl_FY23.pdf\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">86 percent of fentanyl trafficking cases<\/a> in the United States, according to government figures.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Third, although the National Guard is authorized to carry out inspections, significantly more soldiers would be required to effectively inspect the volume of vehicles, which would likely slow down bilateral trade between the United States and Mexico. In 2018, the port of entry at Laredo, Texas \u2014 where most trade flows \u2014 saw more than <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/comptroller.texas.gov\/economy\/economic-data\/ports\/laredo.php\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">five million cars and 2.3 million trucks<\/a> cross, carrying goods worth about $235 billion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cMilitarizing drug enforcement is nothing new,\u201d said Stephanie Brewer, the Mexico director at the Washington Office on Latin America research institute. \u201cIf anything, this is doubling down on a failed war on drugs that has done nothing to stop drugs since it began decades ago.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-8\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Analysts say that to crack down on fentanyl more intelligence is needed to go after labs or to identify American citizens who are smuggling it. The Mexican National Guard is a relatively new force and only established its own intelligence wing in <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dof.gob.mx\/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5703227&amp;fecha=28\/09\/2023#gsc.tab=0\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">late 2023<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-9\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Intelligence \u201cis really the most effective tool, beyond 10,000, 15,000 or 20,000 National Guard members,\u201d said Jonathan Maza, a Mexico-based <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wilsoncenter.org\/article\/structural-redesign-security-mexico\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">security analyst<\/a>. He said that increased cooperation between Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies \u2014 such as the Drug Enforcement Administration; the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives; and the F.B.I. \u2014 was crucial.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But that work needs to be done elsewhere, not at the crossings.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cFentanyl production is happening not on the border, but in the hinterlands,\u201d said Falko Ernst, a security analyst in Mexico.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-10\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThese are transnational organized crime networks that use both U.S. and Mexican territory,\u201d he added. \u201cWhat is needed is a transnational solution.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-11\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Mexican government announced that the 10,000 National Guard members would be stationed in 18 cities and towns along the U.S.-Mexico border, with the largest contingents deployed to Tijuana and Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Troops began being redirected to the north on Tuesday from southeastern Mexico, one of the safest regions in the country and a popular tourist destination. Others were pulled from states that have seen a recent decrease in crime rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe plan that was made does not obviously put security at risk in the rest of the territory,\u201d Ms. Sheinbaum said on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Inspector General Jos\u00e9 Luis Santos Iza, the coordinator of the 31st Battalion of the National Guard based in Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez, said there would be \u201cpermanent surveillance\u201d of the border and all routes leading to it, with troops patrolling on foot and in vehicles.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-12\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mayor Juan Francisco Gim Nogales of Nogales, a city bordering Arizona, said Wednesday that he was waiting for 400 troops to be deployed later that day.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He expressed hope that the additional forces would help tackle the organized crime <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbp.gov\/border-security\/frontline-against-fentanyl\/operation-plaza-spike-fact-sheet\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">operating<\/a> in his city and curb the flow of guns entering Mexico. The deployment would double Nogales\u2019s armed forces from some 350 to 700, Mr. Gim Nogales said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019ll give citizens peace of mind,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-13\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Emiliano Rodr\u00edguez Mega<!-- --> contributed reporting from Mexico City, <!-- -->Roc\u00edo Gallegos<!-- --> from Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez, <!-- -->Aline Corpus<!-- --> from Tijuana and <!-- -->Chantal Flores<!-- --> from Monterrey, Mexico.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/07\/world\/americas\/mexico-trump-national-guard-deployment.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>During his latest presidential campaign, President Trump bragged about compelling Mexico to deploy 28,000 troops to its borders during his first administration to avoid tariffs. This week, Mr. Trump and Mexico brokered another deal to send an additional 10,000 Mexican National Guard members to the border to stop the flow of migrants and drugs \u2014 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":234197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/02\/07\/multimedia\/07mexico-nationalguard-01-ztjc\/07mexico-nationalguard-01-ztjc-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3542,45,196,17375,137233,163575,90287,128438,9249,1296,61721,931,52,163574],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234196"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234196"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234196\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":234198,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234196\/revisions\/234198"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/234197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}