{"id":241025,"date":"2025-02-17T21:08:10","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T21:08:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/17\/canada-as-the-51st-state-in-electoral-terms-trumps-idea-favors-democrats\/"},"modified":"2025-02-17T21:08:10","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T21:08:10","slug":"canada-as-the-51st-state-in-electoral-terms-trumps-idea-favors-democrats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/17\/canada-as-the-51st-state-in-electoral-terms-trumps-idea-favors-democrats\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada as the 51st State? In Electoral Terms, Trump\u2019s Idea Favors Democrats."},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/02\/17\/multimedia\/17dc-trump-canada-flvz\/17dc-trump-canada-flvz-facebookJumbo.jpg?ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Canada as the 51st State? In Electoral Terms, Trump\u2019s Idea Favors Democrats.\" title=\"Canada as the 51st State? In Electoral Terms, Trump\u2019s Idea Favors Democrats.\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As President Trump looks north and repeatedly presses his case to absorb Canada as the \u201c<a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/03\/us\/politics\/trump-canada-mexico.html\" title=\"\">51st state<\/a>,\u201d politically minded Democrats who are otherwise outraged by almost everything else about his agenda find themselves contemplating a potential electoral boon should it ever happen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Few in Washington take the prospect all that seriously, of course. Canada has made clear that it has no interest in joining the United States, and Mr. Trump seems unlikely to send in the 82nd Airborne Division to force the matter. But if the idea appeals to Mr. Trump\u2019s grandiose sense of himself as an empire-building historic figure, it could also undercut his own party\u2019s prospects.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Canada, a land of socialized health care, friendly immigration policies and a commitment to protecting the environment, is not exactly MAGA territory, after all. Making it a state, according to some early studies of popular opinion and voting patterns, would almost surely cost Republicans control of the House, trim their majority in the Senate and make it harder for them to win the White House in future elections.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI can\u2019t believe I\u2019m saying this, but I strongly agree with Donald Trump,\u201d said former Representative Steve Israel of New York, who headed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. \u201cCanada is largely left of center, and making it the 51st state means more Democrats in Congress and Electoral College votes, not to mention providing universal health care and combating climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Whether Mr. Trump understands that absorbing Canada might be self-destructive for the Republican Party is not clear. He has never been particularly engaged by party building, nor demonstrated much concern about what happens politically after he leaves office. During the campaign last year, he told Christian supporters that \u201c<a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/27\/us\/politics\/trump-votes-christians.html\" title=\"\">you won\u2019t have to vote anymore<\/a>\u201d after electing him in November.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cOf course if it were to happen, it would be a political boon for Democrats,\u201d said Douglas Heye, a longtime Republican strategist. \u201cBut that\u2019s not really even part of the discussion. Trump depends on the loud noises getting a reaction \u2014 and his batting record there is pretty high.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Indeed, Mr. Trump\u2019s talk of annexing Canada appears to be a way of trolling his northern neighbors while he pressures them for trade and other concessions. It has succeeded in getting under their skin. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada told a group of business leaders in comments that leaked out that he did not consider it a joke but in fact \u201c<a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/07\/world\/canada\/trump-canada-trudeau.html\" title=\"\">a real thing<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">All 13 of Canada\u2019s provincial and territorial premiers traveled to Washington this past week as part of a joint mission to strengthen Canada-U.S. relations and defuse the trade war Mr. Trump has begun. And Mr. Trudeau appointed a new Canadian fentanyl czar to address Mr. Trump\u2019s supposed concerns about drugs coming over the border.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But the notion of Canada as a state, however farcical and unlikely, has intrigued the political class and been the source of parlor games in Washington. With 40 million people and 3.8 million square miles, Canada would instantly become the largest and most populous state in the union, beating out all other 50 states combined in land mass and slightly topping California in population.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Canada would also be even bluer than California politically. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians, or 64 percent, told pollsters that they would have voted for Kamala Harris while just 21 percent said they would have supported Mr. Trump, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/nationalpost.com\/news\/canada\/majority-of-canadians-would-vote-for-kamala-harris-in-u-s-election-poll\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">according to a survey by the polling firm Leger<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If Canada had 55 Electoral College votes based on its population, that would have boosted Ms. Harris\u2019s total from 226 to 281. Mr. Trump would still have won with 312 Electoral College votes. But such a change would leave less margin for future Republicans who would start each race assuming an additional 55 Electoral College votes in the Democratic base.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The bigger impact would be on the House. John A. Tures, a professor of political science at LaGrange College in Georgia, analyzed what that would mean if the 10 Canadian provinces were collectively brought in while the three Canadian territories were treated by the United States as it treats its own territories like American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which have no votes for president.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In that case, according to Mr. Tures\u2019s calculations, Republicans would lose their narrow majority in the House. Instead of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/elections\/results-house.html\" title=\"\">winning 220 to 215<\/a>, as they did in November, Republicans would have handed the gavel to Democrats, who would have a majority of 246 to 234.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If Canada were admitted as a single state, as Mr. Trump seems to envision, then its two Senate seats would presumably go to the Democrats. The Republicans\u2019 current 53 to 47 majority would be trimmed to 53 to 49, not enough to change control of the chamber but enough to make it harder for Mr. Trump to govern.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If each of the Canadian provinces were admitted as separate states, then Mr. Tures figured that five new Senate seats would go to Republicans from the most conservative parts of Canada (two from Alberta, two from Saskatchewan and one from Manitoba) and 15 from the other provinces would go to Democrats, flipping control.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His forecast, of course, is founded on the assumption that every Conservative Party vote in Canada would go to Mr. Trump\u2019s Republicans and that the Democrats would be able to build a coalition of the several Canadian parties to the left of the Conservatives, both of which are logical if not certain inferences. But it gives a sense of how the political landscape would shift in the United States.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Tures, who <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lagrangenews.com\/2025\/01\/18\/tures-column-bringing-canada-into-the-usa-would-produce-a-democratic-majority\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">wrote about an earlier version of his analysis<\/a>, said he has gotten feedback since then from Canadians. \u201cThey aren\u2019t happy with Trump\u2019s tactics and threats, but some joked that they would appreciate the opportunity to take over our politics by giving votes to the Democratic Party to make us more them, politically,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It could, however, become even more complicated. Douglas B. Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist, said it was possible that Quebec, which has already come close to seceding from Canada over the past few decades, would be so disturbed at annexation by the United States that it would declare its independence at last.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe Democrats would control Vancouver and Ontario province, but that\u2019s it with the rest of what is left of Canada supporting the Republicans,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">None of the provinces actually want to join the United States, though. Among all Canadian adults, just 15 percent support becoming part of their southern neighbor, while 77 percent oppose it, according to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/today.yougov.com\/politics\/articles\/51505-most-canadians-many-americans-oppose-canada-joining-us\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">a YouGov survey<\/a>. Even among Conservatives, just 23 percent favor the idea while 73 percent do not.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So based on that, at least, Mr. Trump should not get his hopes up \u2014 and neither should Democrats. But it does not mean that they cannot dream.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cCanada is blue,\u201d Mr. Israel said. \u201cWe\u2019ll take all the help President Trump wants to give us.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/17\/us\/politics\/canada-trump-51st-state.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As President Trump looks north and repeatedly presses his case to absorb Canada as the \u201c51st state,\u201d politically minded Democrats who are otherwise outraged by almost everything else about his agenda find themselves contemplating a potential electoral boon should it ever happen. Few in Washington take the prospect all that seriously, of course. Canada has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":241026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/02\/17\/multimedia\/17dc-trump-canada-flvz\/17dc-trump-canada-flvz-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[37486,740,2685,163575,1588,53385,17652,2480,4209,52,1734,128437,163486],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241025"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241025"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241025\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":241027,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241025\/revisions\/241027"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/241026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}