{"id":245657,"date":"2025-02-24T15:25:36","date_gmt":"2025-02-24T15:25:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/24\/reform-in-contention-in-potential-nightmare-by-election-for-labour\/"},"modified":"2025-02-24T15:25:36","modified_gmt":"2025-02-24T15:25:36","slug":"reform-in-contention-in-potential-nightmare-by-election-for-labour","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/24\/reform-in-contention-in-potential-nightmare-by-election-for-labour\/","title":{"rendered":"Reform in contention in potential nightmare by-election for Labour"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Reform<\/div>


\n<\/p>\n

\n

The jailing of Mike Amesbury for 10 weeks for assault means Sir Keir Starmer potentially faces his first by-election test since becoming prime minister.<\/p>\n

Officially, the 55-year-old former Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby now faces a recall petition, but realistically he’s under enormous pressure to resign without delay.<\/p>\n

Politics latest: ‘Alarm bells ringing’ for Labour<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Amesbury was immediately disowned by the Labour Party<\/strong><\/a>, which condemned his actions in the assault as “completely unacceptable” and said it was time for a new MP.<\/p>\n

“Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better, and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserved in the future with a new MP,” said a party spokesperson.<\/p>\n

Amesbury held the Cheshire seat with a seemingly healthy 14,696 majority at the July 2024 general election. But in a potential nightmare for Sir Keir, it was Reform UK – not the Conservatives – in second place.<\/p>\n

The current state of opinion polls, with Nigel Farage’s party edging ahead of Labour<\/strong><\/a>, suggests Reform will be in contention in a by-election and could pull off a sensational victory.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>
\n Image:<\/span>
\n Nigel Farage’s Reform UK leads the opinion polls. Pic: Reuters
\n <\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

A challenge for Labour – but Tories in disarray<\/strong><\/p>\n

And so predictably it was Reform’s chairman Zia Yusuf who led calls from opponents for Amesbury to resign, followed by a handful of Tory backbenchers – but not by Kemi Badenoch yet.<\/p>\n

“The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place,” said Mr Yusuf. “We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately.”<\/p>\n

The risk of humiliation by Mr Farage may deter Labour big hitter Jonathan Ashworth – one of five Labour MPs defeated in July last year<\/strong><\/a> – from gambling on a quick return to Westminster in this seat.<\/p>\n

The Conservatives appear to be in disarray over a potential by-election. Sky News can reveal that party HQ last week invited applications to be Tory candidate, with a deadline fast approaching.<\/p>\n

“We are writing to invite applications for Runcorn and Helsby,” said a letter from the party’s candidates team. “We are particularly keen to see applications from people with links to the constituency.<\/p>\n

“If you are eligible to stand and interested in applying, please apply through the Microsoft Form here and apply by no later than Tuesday 25th February at 12pm.”<\/p>\n

Read more:
Trump makes Starmer’s life harder<\/a><\/strong>
Net zero push provides bump in salaries<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n \"Suspended\n <\/div>
\n Image:<\/span>
\n Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury. Pic: Reuters
\n <\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

When could a by-election happen?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A recall petition happens if an MP is jailed or receives a suspended sentence of a year or less. It lasts six weeks and if 10% of electors sign it, there’s a by-election – though the recalled MP can stand.<\/p>\n

The last MP to be jailed was Tory Imran Ahmad Khan<\/strong><\/a>, former MP for Wakefield, who was sentenced to 18 months after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-yar-old boy. Labour won that by-election.<\/p>\n

Although Sir Keir and the Labour high command have acknowledged since Amesbury pleaded guilty that a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was almost inevitable, the party faces a dilemma over the timing of a poll.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Labour’s statement looking forward to a new MP suggests the party favours a speedy by-election, without the delay of a recall petition, rather than waiting until the local elections on 1 May or even later.<\/p>\n

But there are dangers in a quick poll, as Sir Keir will recall. He was advised to rush the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, with disastrous results<\/strong><\/a>, and he has admitted he considered quitting after that humiliating defeat.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n \"Sir\n <\/div>
\n Image:<\/span>
\n Sir Keir Starmer had a good record in by-elections when Labour were in opposition. Pic: Reuters
\n <\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

The numbers in Runcorn and Helsby last July were Labour on 22,358 votes (52.94%), Reform 7,662, (18.14%), Conservatives 6,756, (16%), Greens 2,715, (6.43%) and Liberal Democrats 2,149, (5.09%).<\/p>\n

Runcorn is on the southern bank of the River Mersey and has expanded as a new town since 1964, and dominates the constituency with a population of 61,000. There are two smaller towns, Frodsham and Helsby.<\/p>\n

Amesbury became MP for the processor seat of Weaver Vale in 2017. He was a shadow minister for work and pensions under Jeremy Corbyn, and for housing, communities and local government under Sir Keir until 2022.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


\n
Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The jailing of Mike Amesbury for 10 weeks for assault means Sir Keir Starmer potentially faces his first by-election test since becoming prime minister. Officially, the 55-year-old former Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby now faces a recall petition, but realistically he’s under enormous pressure to resign without delay. Politics latest: ‘Alarm bells ringing’ for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":245658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/e3.365dm.com\/25\/02\/768x432\/skynews-cpac-nigel-farage-maryland_6835272.jpg?20250221071131","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[603],"tags":[14341,30605,843,37222,716,1793],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245657"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=245657"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245657\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":245659,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245657\/revisions\/245659"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/245658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=245657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=245657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=245657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}