{"id":25231,"date":"2024-04-12T22:05:56","date_gmt":"2024-04-12T22:05:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/12\/irans-retaliation-likely-to-be-limited-but-errors-could-lead-to-war-experts-say\/"},"modified":"2024-04-12T22:05:56","modified_gmt":"2024-04-12T22:05:56","slug":"irans-retaliation-likely-to-be-limited-but-errors-could-lead-to-war-experts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/12\/irans-retaliation-likely-to-be-limited-but-errors-could-lead-to-war-experts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Retaliation Likely to Be Limited, but Errors Could Lead to War, Experts Say"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Israeli forces were on high alert on Friday in anticipation of a retaliatory strike by Iran or its proxies, which analysts and officials warned could spur an Israeli reaction and potentially provoke a broader conflict in the region.<\/p>\n

Iran is expected to launch an attack as soon as this weekend in retaliation for an April 1 airstrike, in which warplanes struck an Iranian Embassy building in Damascus, killing three generals and other commanders, U.S. and Iranian officials said on Friday.<\/p>\n

Military analysts said neither Israel nor Iran appeared interested in provoking a full-blown war that could draw in the United States, but that a miscalculation about either side\u2019s red lines could result in an escalation in hostilities.<\/p>\n

An Iranian response was inevitable given the high profile of one of the generals killed in Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top commander in Iran\u2019s Quds Force, the analysts said.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor every wise player, there comes a moment when the cost benefit calculation shifts and all strategies are reset,\u201d said Mahdi Mohammadi, the chief adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran\u2019s Parliament. \u201cFor Iran that moment was the attack in Damascus.\u201d<\/p>\n

Israel expects Iran to strike in a way that allows it to save face, but is measured enough to not arouse an even fiercer counter-strike, analysts say. The Iranians \u201cdon\u2019t want a total war,\u201d said Amos Gilead, a retired Israeli general. \u201cSo they might attack targets that would enable them to declare that they\u2019ve achieved a great victory.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran and Israel do not maintain any direct, formal channels of communication, making the chances for each side to misread the other\u2019s intentions far greater, said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence officer.<\/p>\n

American intelligence analysts and officials think Iran will strike multiple targets inside Israel within the next few days, said three U.S. officials who requested anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.<\/p>\n

Where those strikes are aimed, from where they will be launched, who might carry them out and the damage they are expected to inflict remain secret to all but the highest levels of the Iranian government and military.<\/p>\n

But Iran\u2019s answer to those questions will determine the size and scope of Israel\u2019s response, said Mr. Citrinowicz, a fellow at the Tel-Aviv based Institute for National Security Studies.<\/p>\n

The country\u2019s leaders likely hope to use their strike to restore some semblance of deterrence following the killing of General Zahedi in Syria, he said. (Israel has not publicly taken responsibility for that attack, but several Israeli officials confirmed<\/a> the country\u2019s involvement to The New York Times.)<\/p>\n

Such an Iranian response, Mr. Citrinowicz said, could mean an attack from Iranian territory rather than through its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq.<\/p>\n

Israel has warned that an attack launched from inside Iran on targets inside Israel would be considered an escalation that required a reaction.<\/p>\n

Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military spokesman, said on Thursday such an attack would be \u201cclear evidence of Iran\u2019s intentions to escalate the Middle East and stop hiding behind the proxies.\u201d<\/p>\n

Last week, in anticipation of an Iranian strike, the Israeli military announced that additional reserve units had been called up to reinforce Israel\u2019s air defense system and that combat soldiers expecting leave had been ordered to remain deployed.<\/p>\n

Should Iran launch an attack from its own soil, said Mr. Citrinowicz, Israel\u2019s air defenses would detect drones or cruise missiles long before they reached their targets, giving Israeli forces a chance to destroy them.<\/p>\n

A more daunting scenario, he said, would be surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, which would arrive in a matter of minutes. Israel has developed some defenses \u2014 such as the Arrow system \u2014 to intercept longer-range missiles.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we manage to intercept most of what\u2019s incoming, that would be excellent \u2014 it would moderate our need to respond offensively,\u201d Mr. Citrinowicz said.<\/p>\n

Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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Israeli forces were on high alert on Friday in anticipation of a retaliatory strike by Iran or its proxies, which analysts and officials warned could spur an Israeli reaction and potentially provoke a broader conflict in the region. Iran is expected to launch an attack as soon as this weekend in retaliation for an April […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/04\/12\/multimedia\/12mideast-crisis-israel-iran-fpgm\/12mideast-crisis-israel-iran-fpgm-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[20056,6236,21116,872,11665,25178,3102],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25231"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25231"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25231\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25233,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25231\/revisions\/25233"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}