{"id":254174,"date":"2025-03-07T18:33:19","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T18:33:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/07\/the-trump-doctrine-the-world-is-a-zero-sum-game\/"},"modified":"2025-03-07T18:33:19","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T18:33:19","slug":"the-trump-doctrine-the-world-is-a-zero-sum-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/07\/the-trump-doctrine-the-world-is-a-zero-sum-game\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trump Doctrine: The World Is a Zero-Sum Game"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/07interpreter-photo-tlgj\/07interpreter-photo-tlgj-facebookJumbo.jpg?ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"The Trump Doctrine: The World Is a Zero-Sum Game\" title=\"The Trump Doctrine: The World Is a Zero-Sum Game\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">What is President Trump up to? This is arguably the most important question in the world right now \u2014 and perhaps the toughest to answer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump\u2019s words and actions seem to revolve around a central idea: The world is a zero-sum game. Whoever pays the most into the pot is the loser; whoever gets the most is the winner.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That may sound like a mere difference of perspective or negotiation style. But most of the postwar international order is based on the idea that the world is a positive-sum game: a collection of overlapping systems that benefit all who participate in them, even if the costs and benefits of participation aren\u2019t distributed equally.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This positive-sum concept is a foundation of the international trade, international law, and international alliances that have been engines of prosperity and peace for decades \u2014 and indeed of democracy itself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since World War II, the United States has been a powerful anchor of that system. But Mr. Trump has signaled he is playing a very different game.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since the 1980s, his words and actions have suggested that he places little value on positive-sum dynamics. Where others see positive-sum games generating gains for all, he seems to see only zero-sum winners and losers. And now, in his second term, that worldview appears to be a primary driver of his foreign policy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That is already upending norms, alliances, markets and economies. It is threatening many of the United States\u2019 longstanding relationships, transforming friends into adversaries and strengths into weaknesses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Understanding this zero-sum thinking helps to explain the Trump administration\u2019s approach toward global trade, its acquisitive and extractive foreign policy, its friendliness toward many autocratic regimes and its hostility toward liberal democracies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-7ee22abf\">Positive-sum games<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The basic concept of a positive-sum game is that players do not win at each other\u2019s expense, but instead all gain from participating. The interaction between the players creates aggregate benefits that exceed the aggregate costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In simple terms, cooperation makes the overall pie larger, so everyone\u2019s piece gets bigger.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In a zero-sum game, by contrast, the total rewards are fixed, so every gain comes at someone\u2019s expense \u2014 one person getting more pie means another gets less. My colleague Damien Cave recently <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/01\/world\/asia\/trump-zero-sum-world.html\" title=\"\">wrote about<\/a> some of the anthropological reasons why humans are prone to zero-sum thinking, including a psychological bias toward perceiving themselves as being in cutthroat battles, even when they are not.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But once they are established, positive-sum games can work on the basis of cooperation rather than coercion, as people become aware of the benefits they offer. That\u2019s true even if the costs and benefits aren\u2019t equitable: Some participants can gain more than others, but if everyone gains something, it\u2019s still worthwhile to participate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Positive-sum systems of international trade, security, and democracy reinforce one another: It is easier to invest in another country, or rely on goods imported from it, if you aren\u2019t worried that war might sever your relations. But the opposite can also be true. Without trust and cooperation, the interlocking systems can collapse \u2014 one by one, and then all at once.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-51ab5321\">International Trade<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The modern system of international trade is built on the assumption that trade not only makes individual buyers and sellers better off, but also that countries benefit from being able to specialize.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Exporters get the benefits of foreign markets, while importers get access to goods and services without having to produce them themselves, freeing up resources for other sectors that are more profitable. All participants get to focus on their areas of comparative advantage: the United States, for example, might have fewer clothing factories but more Silicon Valley tech giants, which leads to more growth for the U.S. economy as a whole.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Americans have enjoyed the benefits of that system for so long that they may not realize how much they depend on it, said Heather Hurlburt, a former Biden administration trade official.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cAmericans are very used to being able to get the best of the best from other countries, whether that is fun consumer goods or whether it\u2019s medications,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">There are longstanding debates about trade policy, and whether protectionism can help develop key industries, or what policies benefit workers the most. But Mr. Trump appears to be hostile to the underlying concept that trade can be mutually beneficial at all.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In his worldview, any country that imports more than it exports is a loser, and any country with a trade surplus is a winner. He has initiated large tariffs against the three biggest U.S. trading partners: Mexico, China and Canada and threatened to soon do the same against the European Union. (In reality, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2025-03-06\/the-case-against-tariffs-is-getting-stronger?srnd=undefined&amp;sref=0w5HLLb3\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">there is little evidence that tariffs can reduce trade deficits<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Although Mr. Trump gave Canada and Mexico <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html\" title=\"\">a temporary reprieve from most of the new tariffs this week<\/a>, his on-again, off-again tactics have only reinforced the message that the United States is no longer a reliable trading partner.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-7ee30023\">International Law<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The post-World War II world is built on a rules-based system of international law. The idea is that the positive-sum benefits of the system create an incentive for countries to respect the U.N. Charter and comply with treaty obligations and the laws of war, even if there are no international cops to enforce them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The strong post-World War II norm against territorial conquest, for example, is a collective sacrifice of the ability to invade and take over other countries. In exchange, nation states receive the greater collective benefit of avoiding costly wars and forgoing the need to constantly defend themselves against annexation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Countries do still violate international law, of course. But even then, they tend to do so in ways that signal support for the system itself by denying that they violated the law, or claiming some kind of defense to accusations that they did. (Russia, for example, claimed that its invasion of Ukraine was necessary to defend Russian speakers there against genocide.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump has made a point of undercutting this system. He has talked of annexing Greenland and Gaza and making Canada the 51st state. More acutely, he has undercut Ukraine\u2019s right to maintain its territorial integrity by offering to let Russia keep the land it has invaded \u2014 and by threatening to cut Ukraine out of peace talks altogether.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-17a9c\">NATO<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Defensive alliances like NATO work on a similar principle: Jointly investing in deterrence produces greater value for the United States and its allies by preventing wars, even if all participants don\u2019t contribute equally.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The United States has always paid an outsized share of defense costs for its allies because it saw those alliances as positive-sum.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump does not seem to place a value on the intangible benefits of the security arrangement. He has said he would <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/02\/10\/us\/politics\/trump-nato-russia.html\" title=\"\">\u201cencourage\u201d the Russians \u201cto do whatever the hell they want\u201d<\/a> to NATO members that do not spend enough on defense. By signaling that U.S. protection is uncertain, he has radically weakened NATO\u2019s deterrent power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe invisible gains, or the gains that are hard to quantify, like NATO, like the fact that there\u2019s been peace for a long time, is just very alien to him,\u201d said Elizabeth Saunders, a professor of international relations at Columbia University. \u201cHe doesn\u2019t count that in the sum.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-44f03d61\">Democracy<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Democracy is perhaps the ultimate positive-sum game.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Democracy can only survive as a system of government when politicians believe they are better off <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/29\/magazine\/democracy-elections-game.html\" title=\"\">playing by the rules of the game<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In established democracies that usually isn\u2019t difficult, because the benefits of having a system in which election results are respected are predictably big enough to outweigh the costs of accepting an individual loss. The positive-sum gains of democracy include the stability and safety that come from predictable, peaceful transfers of power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Mr. Trump\u2019s refusal to accept the result of the 2020 election, and his blanket pardons of Jan. 6 rioters, suggest that he cares little for the core organizing principle of democracy: Election losers are better off acknowledging their defeats in order to preserve the legitimacy of the system and their own opportunities to run again.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So it is perhaps not surprising that he does not appear to see liberal democracies as natural allies of the United States, taking a hostile stance toward Canada and the European Union, while praising the leaders of Russia and Hungary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For eight decades, the United States and its allies have built a positive-sum world, confident in the rewards it would bring them and the wider world. The U.S. has offered other countries an implicit guarantee that they, too, play by the rules and will share in the system\u2019s rewards.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But now, by signaling that the United States no longer believes in that system or intends to play by its rules, Mr. Trump is sending the opposite signal: The United States is now playing a zero-sum game. Any country that expects otherwise will face disappointment, or worse. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<hr class=\"css-7ad88g e1mu4ftr0\"\/>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">Thank you for being a subscriber<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Read past editions of the newsletter <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/column\/the-interpreter\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If you\u2019re enjoying what you\u2019re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/newsletters\/the-interpreter\" title=\"\">here<\/a>. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/newsletters\/subscriber-only\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">I\u2019d love your feedback on this newsletter. Please email thoughts and suggestions to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/07\/world\/mailto:interpreter@nytimes.com\" title=\"\">interpreter@nytimes.com<\/a>. You can also follow me <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/amandataub\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">on Twitter<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/07\/world\/trump-doctrine-zero-sum-game.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is President Trump up to? This is arguably the most important question in the world right now \u2014 and perhaps the toughest to answer. Mr. Trump\u2019s words and actions seem to revolve around a central idea: The world is a zero-sum game. Whoever pays the most into the pot is the loser; whoever gets [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":254175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/03\/07\/multimedia\/07interpreter-photo-tlgj\/07interpreter-photo-tlgj-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[164984,70722,163575,1749,3096,164053,164052,52,163486,1052,31279],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254174"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=254174"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254174\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":254176,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254174\/revisions\/254176"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/254175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=254174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=254174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=254174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}