{"id":27107,"date":"2024-04-15T18:05:40","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T18:05:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/15\/irans-strike-on-israel-creates-military-uncertainty-diplomatic-opportunity\/"},"modified":"2024-04-15T18:05:40","modified_gmt":"2024-04-15T18:05:40","slug":"irans-strike-on-israel-creates-military-uncertainty-diplomatic-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/15\/irans-strike-on-israel-creates-military-uncertainty-diplomatic-opportunity\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Strike on Israel Creates Military Uncertainty, Diplomatic Opportunity"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/04\/15\/multimedia\/15israel-iran-assess-01-chmf\/15israel-iran-assess-01-chmf-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Iran\u2019s Strike on Israel Creates Military Uncertainty, Diplomatic Opportunity\" title=\"Iran\u2019s Strike on Israel Creates Military Uncertainty, Diplomatic Opportunity\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The enormous salvo of Iranian weapons fired at Israel this weekend turned the countries\u2019 long-running shadow war into a direct confrontation, raising fears that the countries\u2019 old paradigm of trading carefully measured blows had been replaced by something more overt, violent and risky.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But by Monday, Israel had yet to respond to the Iranian assault. Rather than preparing the public for a showdown with its archrival, the government signaled a return to relative normalcy, lifting restrictions on large gatherings and allowing schools to reopen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some right-wing Israeli politicians, dismayed by the lack of an immediate response, have argued that Israel needs to strike back forcefully \u2014 and soon \u2014 or risk losing its deterrence. Other more centrist officials have argued that Israel should instead bide its time before responding and capitalize on the support it has received from allies and regional actors, who are otherwise angry about Israel\u2019s war in Gaza.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Any forceful Israeli response would risk angering President Biden, who has pressed Israel to de-escalate and whose military support Israel would need in the event of a major confrontation. Israel has already drawn the president\u2019s criticism for dragging out the war in Gaza, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel must weigh the perceived benefits of retaliation against the risk of further displeasing the president, along with the potential cost \u2014 both human and financial \u2014 of fighting two wars at the same time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">An Israeli official briefed on cabinet discussions who requested anonymity to discuss security matters said that as of Monday several options were being considered, ranging from diplomacy to an imminent strike, but gave no further details.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In short, the next steps in the conflict remain uncertain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The nature of Israel\u2019s response, analysts said, could increase or decrease the possibility of a regional war. And it could improve or strain Israel\u2019s <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2022\/03\/28\/world\/israel-arab-nations-meeting\/the-summit-is-a-sign-of-a-shift-in-the-middle-east?smid=url-share\" title=\"\">ties with Arab nations who share an antipathy for Iran<\/a> but have been critical of the war in Gaza.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It\u2019s also possible Israel and Iran simply return to well established norms of their shadow war \u2014 with Israel assassinating individuals, Iran\u2019s proxies firing volleys at Israel and both sides trading cyberattacks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s too early to tell,\u201d said Dana Stroul, who until recently was a senior Pentagon official with responsibility for the Middle East. \u201cFrom an Israeli security perspective, it\u2019s hard to see how they can let it stand,\u201d Ms. Stroul said. \u201cThe question is: What does that look like and how can a clear line and signal be sent to Iran while avoiding World War III in the Middle East?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If the trajectory of the coming days remains frustratingly opaque, the events of the past 48 hours have brought some new clarity to the conflict.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Sunday\u2019s strike, in which Iran sent hundreds of exploding drones and missiles \u2014 primarily from its own soil toward Israeli territory for the first time \u2014 were in retaliation for Israel\u2019s <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/01\/world\/middleeast\/iran-commanders-killed-syria-israel.html\" title=\"\">killing of seven Iranian officials<\/a> in Syria earlier this month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In military terms, the Iranian strikes signaled its willingness to confront Israel directly rather that through the use of regional proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, thereby <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/14\/world\/middleeast\/iran-strikes-israel-analysis.html\" title=\"\">upending Israel\u2019s assumptions<\/a> about Iran\u2019s threshold for risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In diplomatic terms, Iran\u2019s strikes and Israel\u2019s robust defense of them, in coordination with Western and Arab partners, has helped shift international attention away from Israel\u2019s war in Gaza, where the reported death toll of more than 33,000 has prompted accusations, strongly denied by Israel, of genocide.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">At a time when Israel\u2019s closest allies had become increasingly critical of the Israeli military\u2019s conduct in Gaza, Iran\u2019s attacks prompted those partners to work closely with <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/12\/21\/world\/middleeast\/israel-gaza-bomb-investigation.html\" title=\"\">the same Israeli Air Force that has carried out devastating strikes in Gaza<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cYou can see that not just among the Arabs but also among the western Europeans, Israel\u2019s diplomatic standing is somewhat improved because it was a victim of Iranian aggression, not an aggressor,\u201d said Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. \u201cBy being \u2018the victim,\u2019 it improves your position.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Analysts said that it remained unclear how Israel\u2019s defenses would function without the several days of warnings that Iran gave before its weekend attacks, which allowed Israel and its allies crucial time to prepare. And while Iran has said that any future Israeli \u201cmistake\u201d would be met with a \u201cconsiderably more severe\u201d response, that threat also remains untested and was vague enough to leave room to maneuver.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Should Israel fire back at Iran in a way that would drag the region into war, the good will Israel has recently accrued with its allies could quickly vanish, analysts said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For Iran\u2019s leaders, the strikes, which caused limited damage and critically injured one child, were nevertheless a domestic and diplomatic victory because of the way they allowed Iran to present itself as standing up to Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Domestically, Iran\u2019s leaders have had to face accusations that they had been too passive after previous attacks by Israel on Iranian officials. Analysts said the salvo also reassured Iran\u2019s allies and proxies in countries like Lebanon and Yemen that Iran was willing to bear the risk of attacking Israel from its own territory. And, they said, it allowed Iran to show up rival Middle Eastern leaders, who have publicly criticized Israel often while working quietly with its government.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Iran wants \u201cto take the mantle of the protector of the Muslim world,\u201d said Narges Bajoghli, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. \u201cThey\u2019re basically flexing their muscles for regional audiences and simultaneously showing the weakness of Arab leaders in the region,\u201d she said. \u201cArab nations have not confronted Israel in this direct way that Iran has.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The opposite was true: At least one Arab country, Jordan, was directly involved in repelling the Iranian strikes, and others are thought to have quietly assisted Israel either through sharing intelligence or sending data gathered from missile-detecting sensors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Jordan, Israel\u2019s eastern neighbor, has a large Palestinian population and has regularly criticized the war in Gaza. But it still <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/14\/world\/middleeast\/jordan-israel-iran-drones.html\" title=\"\">acknowledged<\/a> that Iranian targets had been \u201cdealt with\u201d in Jordanian airspace and that its military would repel similar attacks in the future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The announcement was a reminder of how, before the Gaza war, shared fears of Iran had begun to smooth Israel\u2019s diplomatic integration within the Middle East as well as allow <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/06\/20\/world\/middleeast\/israel-arab-military-alliance.html\" title=\"\">greater military coordination<\/a> between Israel and some Arab countries, including arms deals and joint training exercises.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For some Israeli analysts, this is why Iran\u2019s attack could yet help Israel\u2019s acceptance in the Middle East, even as its reputation plummets because of Gaza.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe full details of how Sunni Arab regimes helped protect Israel, without doubt saving Israeli lives from Iranian missiles and drones, may not be known for a while. But this is a historic shift,\u201d wrote Anshel Pfeffer, an Israeli commentator, in a column for Haaretz, a left-leaning newspaper. \u201cArab cooperation against the Iranian attack proves that the trend in the region is still toward an Arab-American-Israeli alliance against Iran and its proxies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In particular, some hope it may give fresh momentum to U.S.-led efforts to seal diplomatic ties for the first time between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which seemed close to success before the Gaza war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Saudi oil refineries came under attack in 2019 from the Houthis, an Iran-backed militia in Yemen. Riyadh seeks greater security cooperation with the United States to ward off similar aggression in the future \u2014 an arrangement that the U.S. has indicated would likely be made only if Riyadh also formally recognized and worked with Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But the chances of such a deal remain remote while the Gaza war endures and Israel\u2019s right-wing government shuns any discussion about creating a Palestinian state after the fighting ends \u2014 a key Saudi demand.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cDiplomatically, I would seize on this and try to revive and invigorate regional cooperation,\u201d said Mr. Rabinovich, the former Israeli ambassador. \u201cBut the obstacle remains,\u201d he added. \u201cWhat do you do with the Palestinian issue?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Gabby Sobelman and Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/15\/world\/middleeast\/iran-israel-strike-diplomacy.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The enormous salvo of Iranian weapons fired at Israel this weekend turned the countries\u2019 long-running shadow war into a direct confrontation, raising fears that the countries\u2019 old paradigm of trading carefully measured blows had been replaced by something more overt, violent and risky. But by Monday, Israel had yet to respond to the Iranian assault. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":27108,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/04\/15\/multimedia\/15israel-iran-assess-01-chmf\/15israel-iran-assess-01-chmf-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5448,10084,21116,38,2198,19143,2335,9177],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27107"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27107"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27107\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27109,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27107\/revisions\/27109"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27108"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}