{"id":292891,"date":"2025-04-29T03:58:17","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T03:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/29\/why-the-economic-disruption-from-trumps-tariff-war-will-be-hard-to-reverse\/"},"modified":"2025-04-29T03:58:17","modified_gmt":"2025-04-29T03:58:17","slug":"why-the-economic-disruption-from-trumps-tariff-war-will-be-hard-to-reverse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/29\/why-the-economic-disruption-from-trumps-tariff-war-will-be-hard-to-reverse\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the Economic Disruption From Trump\u2019s Tariff War Will Be Hard to Reverse"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/04\/28\/multimedia\/28Biz-Econ-Trump-01-wfgc\/28Biz-Econ-Trump-01-wfgc-facebookJumbo.jpg?ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Why the Economic Disruption From Trump\u2019s Tariff War Will Be Hard to Reverse\" title=\"Why the Economic Disruption From Trump\u2019s Tariff War Will Be Hard to Reverse\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">President Trump has made clear his intent to smash the reigning <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/03\/business\/trump-tariffs-dollar.html?searchResultPosition=2\" title=\"\">global economic order<\/a>. And in 100 days, he has made remarkable progress in accomplishing that goal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump has provoked a trade war, scrapped treaties and suggested that Washington might not defend Europe. He is also dismantling the governmental infrastructure that has provided the know-how and experience.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The changes have been deep. But the world is still churning. Midterm elections in two years could erode the Republican majority in Congress. And Mr. Trump\u2019s reign is constitutionally mandated to end in four years. Could the next president come in and undo what the Trump administration has done?<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As Cardinal Michael Czerny, a close aide to Pope Francis, said of the Catholic Church: \u201cThere is nothing that we have done over 2,000 years that couldn\u2019t be rolled back.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The same could be said of global geopolitics. Yet even at this early stage, historians and political scientists agree that on some crucial counts, the changes wrought by Mr. Trump may be hard to reverse.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Like the erosion of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/31\/world\/trump-foreign-policy-trust.html\" title=\"\">trust<\/a> in the United States, a resource that took generations to build.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe MAGA base and JD Vance will still be around long after Trump\u2019s gone,\u201d said Ian Goldin, professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford. No matter who occupies the White House next, the conditions that propelled the \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d movement \u2014 widening inequality and economic insecurity \u2014 remain. For the rest of the world, there is still a worry, he said, that there could be \u201canother Trump in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As a result, allies are working to strike trade partnerships and build security alliances that exclude the United States. The European Union and South American countries recently created one of the world\u2019s largest trade zones.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, recently proposed building new transportation networks to ease access to global markets outside the United States. <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/19\/world\/canada\/canada-eu-military-industry-trump.html\" title=\"\">Canada<\/a> is also negotiating to join Europe\u2019s military buildup to reduce its reliance on the United States, while Britain and the European Union are working to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/uk\/uk-pm-starmer-nears-eu-defence-pact-shadow-trump-trade-talks-2025-04-24\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">finalize<\/a> a defense pact.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe world moves on,\u201d Mr. Goldin said. Supply chains will be rearranged, new partnerships will be struck, and foreign students, researchers and tech talent will find other places to migrate. \u201cThe U.S. is not going to quickly restore its economic position,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cAnd it\u2019s not just the United States that is so different now,\u201d he added. Mr. Trump is emboldening autocratic leaders around the world, which further chips away at the rules-based system.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Second, Mr. Trump\u2019s disdain for international institutions only strengthens the influence of China, the principal target of his attempts to use economic pressure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The administration is creating \u201cimmense moments of opportunity for Xi Jinping and China,\u201d said Orville Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">China\u2019s top leader, Mr. Xi, is seeking to exploit Mr. Trump\u2019s protectionist turn and chaotic policy reversals to better position Beijing as the defender of free trade and the new leader of the global trading system.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Xi\u2019s argument particularly resonates among many emerging economies in Latin America, Asia and Africa. China looks \u201csteady and stable and a picture of equanimity compared to the United States,\u201d said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution\u2019s China Center and a former senior China analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Africa is a prime example. Mr. Trump has gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development, which delivered food and health care to the world\u2019s poorest. And the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/20\/us\/politics\/trump-state-department-overhaul.html?searchResultPosition=1\" title=\"\">reorganization plan<\/a> for the State Department has proposed eliminating nearly all diplomatic missions across the continent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">By comparison, China has already invested deeply in Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and its push to control more of the continent\u2019s critical minerals. \u201cIt creates a vacuum that allows China to consolidate that position and control over those mining rights,\u201d Mr. Czin said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump\u2019s hostility to allies could also undercut government efforts in recent years to keep advanced technology out of China\u2019s hands. Those previously close relations were crucial in persuading the Netherlands and Japan to halt exports of advanced semiconductor equipment to China.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Antony Hopkins, a history professor at Cambridge University, added that Mr. Trump was forgetting the important role China played as an international investor and buyer of U.S. debt. If China\u2019s access to America\u2019s large consumer market is severely curtailed, \u201cyou are courting the possibility of damaging China\u2019s ability to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, and if you do that, you\u2019re shooting yourself in the foot.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Another region caught between the United States and China is Southeast Asia. But as Mr. Trump threatened, and then paused until early July, potentially ruinous tariffs on the export-oriented economies of countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia, China <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/17\/world\/asia\/china-trump-tariffs-trade.html\" title=\"\">gained an opportunity to strengthen ties<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Finally, the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/14\/opinion\/trump-public-health-funding-nih.html\" title=\"\">evisceration<\/a> of the federal government\u2019s research and data collection capabilities risks undermining America\u2019s scientific excellence and competitive edge. According to the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, the federal government finances roughly <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/ncses.nsf.gov\/pubs\/nsf24332\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">40 percent<\/a> of the long-term <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/ncses.nsf.gov\/pubs\/nsb20243\/discovery-u-s-and-global-r-d\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">basic research<\/a> that undergirds the country\u2019s technological and scientific breakthroughs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The administration is cutting billions of dollars in <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/22\/us\/politics\/university-leaders-letter-trump.html?searchResultPosition=11\" title=\"\">grants<\/a> to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/08\/us\/politics\/cornell-northwestern-university-funds-trump.html?searchResultPosition=10\" title=\"\">universities<\/a>, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/03\/opinion\/young-american-scientists.html\" title=\"\">scientists<\/a> and researchers, undermining work on topics like <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/21\/climate\/epa-cuts-forever-chemicals-grants.html?searchResultPosition=2\" title=\"\">environmental hazards<\/a>, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/17\/us\/politics\/trump-administration-proposes-health-department-cuts.html?searchResultPosition=9\" title=\"\">disease control<\/a>, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/02\/climate\/lee-zeldin-gold-bars-epa.html\" title=\"\">climate<\/a> and clean energy programs, computer processing, agriculture, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/22\/us\/politics\/elon-musk-doge-china.html?searchResultPosition=24\" title=\"\">defense<\/a> and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/the-evolution-of-artificial-intelligence-ai-spending-by-the-u-s-government\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">artificial intelligence<\/a>. It has slashed funding for the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/08\/us\/politics\/cornell-northwestern-university-funds-trump.html?searchResultPosition=10\" title=\"\">cybersecurity<\/a> work that protects the power grid, pipelines and telecommunications. Thousands of veteran and up-and-coming experts have been fired.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Institutions are worried about a brain drain as American and foreign researchers turn elsewhere for grants, jobs and academic freedom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Nor would it be easy to quickly reconstitute the networks of people, assistance, information and logistical know-how contained in agencies that have been disbanded or emptied.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThis is a revolution dedicated to destroying not only policies but institutions,\u201d Mr. Schell at the Asia Society said. Even if the Democrats regain power, it\u2019s not clear \u201cthere will be a structure to revive or whether it will have to be arduously rebuilt.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Sometimes a signature event like the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 serves as an endpoint to an era. But it is not necessarily always clear in real time if stress on a system is so extreme that it won\u2019t be able to snap back.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Many people thought the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/history.state.gov\/milestones\/1969-1976\/nixon-shock\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cNixon shock\u201d<\/a> represented such a break, David Ekbladh, a history professor at Tufts University, said. In 1971 President Richard M. Nixon terminated the system of fixed exchange rates and severed the value of the U.S. dollar from gold.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The author William Greider called it the \u201cprecise date on which America\u2019s singular dominance\u201d of the global economy ended. Chaos enveloped global markets, and America\u2019s allies worried that the president\u2019s unilateral decision undermined the postwar cooperative system. Still, the larger economic order held.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-8\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe game changed, but it wasn\u2019t a revolution,\u201d Mr. Ekbladh said. Negotiations to open markets continued, America\u2019s alliances remained intact and the Group of 10 negotiated a new arrangement. Respect internationally for the rule of law prevailed, and the United States was still universally seen as the leader of the free world.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The question for the United States now is how deep support is for the system that was, Mr. Ekbladh said. These currents of deep discontent with the global economy have been bubbling up for a long time, and many people voted for Mr. Trump because of his promise to upend the system. \u201cDo the American people want this to go away?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/28\/business\/economy\/trump-trade-global-economy.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump has made clear his intent to smash the reigning global economic order. And in 100 days, he has made remarkable progress in accomplishing that goal. Mr. Trump has provoked a trade war, scrapped treaties and suggested that Washington might not defend Europe. He is also dismantling the governmental infrastructure that has provided the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":292892,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/04\/28\/multimedia\/28Biz-Econ-Trump-01-wfgc\/28Biz-Econ-Trump-01-wfgc-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[168,165435,16052,163575,484,164392,8242,164053,164052,9431,3487,52,1734,1021,3102,2762],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292891"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=292891"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292891\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":292893,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292891\/revisions\/292893"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/292892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=292891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=292891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=292891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}