{"id":296078,"date":"2025-05-02T17:33:04","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T17:33:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/02\/sky-news-analysis-reform-surge-in-estimated-national-vote-with-labour-and-tories-at-all-time-low\/"},"modified":"2025-05-02T17:33:04","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T17:33:04","slug":"sky-news-analysis-reform-surge-in-estimated-national-vote-with-labour-and-tories-at-all-time-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/02\/sky-news-analysis-reform-surge-in-estimated-national-vote-with-labour-and-tories-at-all-time-low\/","title":{"rendered":"Sky News analysis: Reform surge in estimated national vote with Labour and Tories at all-time low"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Sky<\/div>


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Based on an analysis of 1,067 of 1,400 voting areas, the current national share estimate puts Reform on 32%.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

This is the first time that a party other than Conservative or Labour has led at this stage of the votes being counted.<\/p>\n

Labour is currently placed second on 19% with the Conservatives only one point behind on 18%. This is the lowest total for both parties individually and combined since 1973 when these estimates were first calculated.<\/p>\n

Politics latest: Farage tells new Reform council’s climate and diversity staff to change jobs<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Liberal Democrats have 16% with the Greens on 7%.<\/p>\n

For each cycle of local elections, we collect the votes cast in those elections and then use them to construct a nationwide vote.<\/p>\n

Normally, this compares the changes in the current year’s local vote shares with the picture from four years before when the same councils were voting.<\/p>\n

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More on Local Elections 2025<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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This year, however, we are also comparing the votes cast at last year’s general election with those cast in precisely the same areas voting on 1 May.<\/p>\n

Read more:
The political earthquake of Nigel Farage<\/a><\/strong>
Starmer responds after losing Runcorn <\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Parliamentary constituencies that cross council boundaries where all or only some electors had a local vote in 2025 are excluded from this analysis.<\/p>\n

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\"chart<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Combining these separate analyses acknowledges that the choices available to voters in local elections are, in some areas, different to the choices available in parliamentary constituencies.<\/p>\n

On this basis, the current national vote estimate sees Reform up 17 points compared to the general election.<\/p>\n

Labour falls from 35% to just 19% – with the Conservatives dropping from 24% to 18%. The Liberal Democrats add an extra three percentage points with the Greens unchanged.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Based on an analysis of 1,067 of 1,400 voting areas, the current national share estimate puts Reform on 32%.\u00a0 This is the first time that a party other than Conservative or Labour has led at this stage of the votes being counted. Labour is currently placed second on 19% with the Conservatives only one point […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":296079,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/22764467\/thumbnail","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[603],"tags":[14035,405,6862,843,4372,271,1793,2118,2130,3440,901],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296078"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=296078"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296078\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":296080,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296078\/revisions\/296080"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/296079"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=296078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=296078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=296078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}