{"id":45645,"date":"2024-05-08T04:11:49","date_gmt":"2024-05-08T04:11:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/08\/with-a-gaza-cease-fire-in-the-balance-netanyahu-maneuvers-to-keep-power\/"},"modified":"2024-05-08T04:11:49","modified_gmt":"2024-05-08T04:11:49","slug":"with-a-gaza-cease-fire-in-the-balance-netanyahu-maneuvers-to-keep-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/08\/with-a-gaza-cease-fire-in-the-balance-netanyahu-maneuvers-to-keep-power\/","title":{"rendered":"With a Gaza Cease-Fire in the Balance, Netanyahu Maneuvers to Keep Power"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/08\/multimedia\/08israel-bibi-analysis-01-ckqb\/08israel-bibi-analysis-01-ckqb-facebookJumbo.jpg?fit=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"With a Gaza Cease-Fire in the Balance, Netanyahu Maneuvers to Keep Power\" title=\"With a Gaza Cease-Fire in the Balance, Netanyahu Maneuvers to Keep Power\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel\u2019s prime minister, is known as a man who likes to play for time and postpone big decisions. But he may not be able to do that much longer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Domestically, his coalition partners on the far right threaten to break up the government if he agrees to a cease-fire and does not try to clear Hamas out of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/06\/world\/middleeast\/israel-rafah-hamas-ceasefire.html\" title=\"\">Rafah, in southern Gaza<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Militarily, the strategic logic is to complete the dismantling of Hamas by taking Rafah and controlling the border with Egypt. But diplomatically, his allies, especially the United States, are pushing him to agree on a cease-fire, and skip Rafah and the potential civilian casualties a large-scale operation would cause.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So Mr. Netanyahu is now negotiating and maneuvering on several fronts at once, all of which have a significant effect on the conduct of the war and his own future as prime minister.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His recent warnings to Palestinians in parts of Rafah to move to areas Israel has designated as safe, followed late Monday night by the Israeli military\u2019s seizure of the Gazan side of the Egyptian border, signaled to his far-right government coalition, to Hamas and to the Biden administration that he would continue to prioritize Israel\u2019s security interests. More important, Israel\u2019s more narrow war cabinet, which includes senior opposition figures, backed those decisions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The seizure of the Rafah crossing to Egypt, to try to complete Israel\u2019s security control of Gaza\u2019s borders, has, for now, avoided a large-scale and contentious military operation in Rafah itself, which is filled with <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/02\/11\/world\/middleeast\/rafah-gaza-evacuation.html\" title=\"\">displaced civilians<\/a>. It may signal that Israel is preparing at long last to agree to at least a temporary cease-fire in Gaza, even as the outcome of those negotiations remains uncertain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cNetanyahu is being pulled in various directions,\u201d with pressure mounting on him to respond, said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel now at Princeton.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Foremost is Mr. Netanyahu\u2019s desire to avoid new elections, which could mean loss of power and a renewal of the various court cases against him. \u201cPolitical survival always ranks first in Netanyahu\u2019s calculations,\u201d Mr. Kurtzer said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Then there are the competing pressures on him from \u201cextremists in his own coalition who want to continue the war,\u201d he said, and from the hostage families, who want the government to prioritize a cease-fire and a release of more people seized in Israel during the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Externally, the pressure comes from Biden administration officials and some in Congress \u201cwho are losing patience over the humanitarian situation,\u201d he noted. They want a cease-fire and oppose a major onslaught on Rafah. Finally there is \u201cthe real, continuing threat of escalation, especially from Hezbollah,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Here is a closer look at the political, military and diplomatic concerns Mr. Netanyahu confronts as he weighs his next steps.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-9ycfei eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-51e2f62f\">Politics<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Netanyahu is desperate to hold together his governing coalition, which has 64 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, or Parliament, a narrow majority.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His far-right partners, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, together control 14 seats, and they have vowed to leave the government if the prime minister makes too many concessions and agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza, leaving Hamas to claim victory. They have insisted, as Mr. Netanyahu has also done, that the military will move on Rafah.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Gadi Eisenkot, a former general and opposition member of the war cabinet, accused the two men of \u201cpolitical blackmail\u201d and of standing in the way of the return of at least some hostages.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But new elections would almost certainly produce a new coalition without Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich, so Mr. Netanyahu has some room to maneuver.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Agreeing to a form of temporary cease-fire in stages, as proposed in the current negotiations, could allow Israel to deal with what it says are the four Hamas battalions in and under Rafah at a much slower pace, over many weeks, especially now that the strip of Gaza along the Egyptian border has been seized.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It would also bring more hostages home \u2014 not all of them, but some of the most vulnerable, as well as some who are dead and could be buried by their families. That could help diminish the anti-government rallies often spearheaded by the hostage families.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It would also go some way to pacify President Biden, who could claim a diplomatic victory with a cease-fire, which would also allow much more humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza, allow more civilians to move to safer areas and even to the north, after they are screened by Israeli troops, and avoid a full-scale attack on Rafah.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cNetanyahu is in no hurry to end the war,\u201d said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator who now leads the U.S.\/Middle East Project, a nonprofit policy institute. \u201cHe doesn\u2019t want a cease-fire deal that threatens his coalition or his ability to continue the war after a pause. He wants to drag it all out, because once the war is over, what is the excuse for not having new elections?\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-9ycfei eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-70b78a1a\">Military<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Israeli military officials and analysts emphasize that cutting off the smuggling of arms and equipment from Egypt through the tunnels under Rafah is strategically more important to Israel than the Hamas fighters left in Rafah.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Despite Egyptian denials of extensive smuggling into Gaza, Israeli officials believe that much of the extraordinary arsenal and the building supplies that Hamas accumulated in Gaza came through tunnels from Egypt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIf we end the war without blocking the tunnels, we would enable Hamas or any other terrorist organization in the Strip to rebuild their military capacities,\u201d said Kobi Michael of the Institute for National Security Studies, a research group in Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Nitzan Nuriel, a reserve brigadier general and former director of the counterterrorism bureau of the Israeli National Security Council, worked with Mr. Netanyahu for several years. \u201cRafah is important not because of the four Hamas battalions that are still there,\u201d he said. \u201cRafah is important because the message to the Palestinians who live in Gaza is that Hamas will not be able to control Gaza for good.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Otherwise, he said, Gazans would \u201cstay afraid of Hamas and therefore will cooperate with Hamas.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Even a modest operation in Rafah \u201cfits several of Netanyahu\u2019s goals simultaneously,\u201d said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Like many Israeli officials, including those who want a cease-fire deal now, Mr. Sachs said, \u201cNetanyahu genuinely believes an operation in Rafah is central to Israel\u2019s overall goals \u2014 not merely in going after the remaining Hamas forces, but in cutting off their ability to resupply via smuggling through the Egyptian border.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The military operation \u201calso puts pressure on Hamas to relent on some of its more expansive demands in the cease-fire negotiations,\u201d Mr. Sachs said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Despite serious American concerns, a limited operation now in Rafah suits Mr. Netanyahu politically, he said, \u201cwith a right flank that objects to a deal now, before the main operational goal is achieved, and facing public anger over the fact that Hamas is still standing, if severely damaged.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-9ycfei eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-7eafecf4\">Diplomacy<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Netanyahu is under enormous pressure diplomatically \u2014 from allies like Washington and Berlin, from the United Nations, from the European Union and from regional Sunni Arab states \u2014 to avoid a major operation in Rafah.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">They want him to allow in much more humanitarian aid to Gaza and agree to a deal with Hamas that could, at least, promise what the current draft text calls a \u201csustainable calm,\u201d rather than a permanent cease-fire.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But such a deal still would not resolve the fundamental divide between Israel and Hamas over how to conclude the conflict.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Hamas wants the war to end now, with the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and the release of all hostages in exchange for a large number of Palestinians held in Israeli jails.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Israel wants to ensure that any cease-fire is temporary, so that Hamas cannot claim victory and begin to restore its control over Gaza.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, after Hamas\u2019s most recent concessions, coupled with the Israeli military moves to control the Egyptian border, a cease-fire deal seems much more possible than before \u2014 perhaps even desirable for Mr. Netanyahu.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Gazans are wary and mistrustful of Israeli statements. Mkhaimar Abusada is a Gazan political scientist whose university in the enclave, Al-Azhar, has been destroyed in the fighting. Now in Cairo with his family, Mr. Abusada says he is convinced that \u201cno matter what the international community says, Netanyahu is going to go into Rafah.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Netanyahu \u201cwants to keep his coalition government, to avoid early elections, to stay prime minister and not go to jail,\u201d he said. \u201cI just hope he does it in a way that deals in a humane way with the Palestinian civilians.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But in the end, Mr. Abusada said, Mr. Netanyahu \u201cand Israel cannot be victorious after this war, not with this much death and destruction, with all the Palestinian civilians and children dead.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/08\/world\/europe\/netanyahu-israel-gaza-ceasefire.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel\u2019s prime minister, is known as a man who likes to play for time and postpone big decisions. But he may not be able to do that much longer. Domestically, his coalition partners on the far right threaten to break up the government if he agrees to a cease-fire and does not try [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":45646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/08\/multimedia\/08israel-bibi-analysis-01-ckqb\/08israel-bibi-analysis-01-ckqb-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[9659,7275,43,46592,4758,2974],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45645"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45645"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45645\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45647,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45645\/revisions\/45647"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45646"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}