{"id":47043,"date":"2024-05-09T16:28:44","date_gmt":"2024-05-09T16:28:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/09\/time-patience-cold-blood-mexico-prepares-for-a-potential-trump-win\/"},"modified":"2024-05-09T16:28:44","modified_gmt":"2024-05-09T16:28:44","slug":"time-patience-cold-blood-mexico-prepares-for-a-potential-trump-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/09\/time-patience-cold-blood-mexico-prepares-for-a-potential-trump-win\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Time, Patience, Cold Blood\u2019: Mexico Prepares for a Potential Trump Win"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/08\/multimedia\/00mexico-trump-hpmq\/00mexico-trump-hpmq-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,549&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\u2018Time, Patience, Cold Blood\u2019: Mexico Prepares for a Potential Trump Win\" title=\"\u2018Time, Patience, Cold Blood\u2019: Mexico Prepares for a Potential Trump Win\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">They\u2019re studying his interviews, bracing for mass deportations and preparing policy proposals to bring to the negotiating table.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As Mexico heads toward its presidential election next month, government officials and campaign aides are also girding for a different vote: one in the United States that could return Donald Trump to the presidency.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The last time Mr. Trump took office, his win surprised many of America\u2019s allies, and his threat-filled diplomacy forced them to adapt on the go. Now, they have time to anticipate how Mr. Trump\u2019s victory would transform relations that President Biden has tried to normalize \u2014 and they\u2019re furiously preparing for an upheaval.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For some, the memory of negotiating with Mr. Trump the last time he was in office, when he used extreme threats against Mexico, looms large.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">What it took to reach a deal with Mr. Trump\u2019s team back then? \u201cTime, patience, cold blood,\u201d the former Mexican foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard said in an interview. \u201cYou can win, if you understand this. It\u2019s not easy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In Mexico, officials say that working with Mr. Trump could be even harder this time around. The former president has promised \u201cthe largest deportation operation in American history,\u201d floated the idea of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-03-16\/trump-threatens-100-tariffs-on-mexican-made-cars-by-china-firms\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico<\/a> and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/10\/03\/us\/politics\/trump-mexico-cartels-republican.html\" title=\"\">vowed to deploy U.S. Special Forces to<\/a>, as he put it, \u201cwage war on the cartels.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Behind the scenes, the Mexican government is talking to people close to the Trump campaign about proposals such as the former president\u2019s threat of a \u201cuniversal tariff\u201d on all imported goods, and working to resolve trade disagreements before the U.S. election, according to a senior Mexican official who was not authorized to speak publicly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The goal, the official said, is to leave the future Mexican administration as equipped as possible to engage with Mr. Trump.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador of Mexico forged a close working relationship with Mr. Trump in the early years of his administration, despite Mr. Trump\u2019s repeated threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and make the country pay for a border wall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador is stepping down once his term ends after presidential elections in June, in which polls give a significant advantage to his prot\u00e9g\u00e9, Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The unwritten rules of Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s relationship with Mr. Trump were that Mexico did as much as it could on migration, and the White House let him pursue his domestic priorities without meddling. That seemed to work for both men.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Mexican leader has <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/01\/18\/world\/americas\/mexico-trump-amlo.html\" title=\"\">praised Mr. Trump for respecting Mexican sovereignty<\/a>. Mr. Trump, in turn, has called the Mexican leader \u201ca friend\u201d and \u201ca great president.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But it\u2019s unclear how Mr. Trump would engage with either of the top two presidential candidates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWith either President Trump or President Biden we\u2019re going to have good relations,\u201d Ms. Sheinbaum said in an interview. \u201cWe\u2019re always going to defend Mexico and Mexicans in the U.S. \u2014 and we want an equal relationship.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez, the top opposition candidate, said she, too, could work with either man as president.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cObviously I would prefer to work with a respectful and courteous gentleman like Joe Biden,\u201d Ms. G\u00e1lvez told The New York Times. \u201cBut in my professional and political life I have dealt with all types of masculinity,\u201d she said. \u201cIt wouldn\u2019t be the first time I confronted a character with complicated masculinity, so I could work perfectly well with Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Campaign aides are drawing up plans for either outcome.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI\u2019m not worried, but we\u2019re going to be prepared,\u201d said Juan Ram\u00f3n de la Fuente, a member of Ms. Sheinbaum\u2019s team, referring to a potential Trump win. \u201cWe are preparing for both scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On migration, \u201cwe need to be more effective in decreasing irregular crossings,\u201d said Mr. de la Fuente, who recently served as Mexico\u2019s ambassador to the United Nations and is seen as a potential pick for foreign minister in a possible Sheinbaum administration.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But he also pointed out that American laws work as \u201ca not very healthy incentive\u201d that help drive migration, \u201cbecause the moment you touch the land, you are a candidate for asylum.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some officials in Mexico see the country as having more leverage in its dealings with the United States than in the past. The White House has relied heavily on <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/03\/26\/world\/americas\/mexico-biden-migration-border.html\" title=\"\">Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador to slow migration at the U.S. southern border<\/a>, and that cooperation has given Mexico significant influence over one of the most important issues in American politics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIn structural terms, Mexico is gaining more power in regard to the United States,\u201d Mr. Ebrard said. The Mexican economy has performed relatively well in recent years, and its <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/01\/01\/business\/mexico-china-us-trade.html\" title=\"\">factories have become an attractive alternative<\/a> to China for the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As Mexico, \u201cany administration in the States needs you for their migration policy,\u201d he said. \u201cThe geopolitical tension is working in certain ways for a stronger Mexico.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Ebrard, who is part of Ms. Sheinbaum\u2019s campaign and seen as a possible cabinet member if she wins, led negotiations with Mr. Trump\u2019s advisers while he was in office.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On trade, \u201ctheir priority was the labor reform, the increase in the wages in Mexico,\u201d said Mr. Ebrard. That was palatable for Mexico, since the L\u00f3pez Obrador administration had campaigned on a leftist platform and was committed to raising Mexican salaries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On migration, the real ask was much harder to satisfy. Mr. Trump wanted \u201ca dramatic reduction,\u201d in border crossings, Mr. Ebrard said, but didn\u2019t agree with Mexico about investing in ways to tackle the causes that drive people to migrate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, Mexico was able to push the administration to recognize its point of view, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In December 2018, the Trump administration joined an effort led by Mexico and committed <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/12\/18\/us\/politics\/united-states-mexico-central-america-investment.html\" title=\"\">billions of dollars in private and public investments to<\/a> Central America \u2014 though months later the former president moved to cut of all aid to the region in response to migrant caravans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Mexican government has been criticized for getting too little in return for agreeing to accept tens of thousands of returned asylum seekers under the Trump-era \u201cRemain in Mexico\u201d policy. But the administration also had clear wins, including the renegotiation of the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ms. G\u00e1lvez argued that the government missed an opportunity to secure more rights for undocumented Mexicans in the United States and protect migrants stuck in Mexico, but she also praised the trade deal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIn that sense, Mexico won, won a lot with Trump,\u201d Ms. G\u00e1lvez said, adding that Mr. Trump never actually imposed the tariffs he threatened. \u201cIt didn\u2019t turn out so badly.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/09\/world\/americas\/trump-mexico-2024-election.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>They\u2019re studying his interviews, bracing for mass deportations and preparing policy proposals to bring to the negotiating table. As Mexico heads toward its presidential election next month, government officials and campaign aides are also girding for a different vote: one in the United States that could return Donald Trump to the presidency. The last time [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/08\/multimedia\/00mexico-trump-hpmq\/00mexico-trump-hpmq-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1491,17116,1296,23232,716,20071,222,52,1460],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47043"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47043"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47043\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47045,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47043\/revisions\/47045"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}