{"id":48432,"date":"2024-05-11T12:32:10","date_gmt":"2024-05-11T12:32:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/11\/can-elections-force-venezuelas-authoritarian-leader-from-power\/"},"modified":"2024-05-11T12:32:11","modified_gmt":"2024-05-11T12:32:11","slug":"can-elections-force-venezuelas-authoritarian-leader-from-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/11\/can-elections-force-venezuelas-authoritarian-leader-from-power\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Elections Force Venezuela\u2019s Authoritarian Leader From Power?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/11\/multimedia\/11venezuela-opposition-promo\/11venezuela-opposition-01-mfkc-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Can Elections Force Venezuela\u2019s Authoritarian Leader From Power?\" title=\"Can Elections Force Venezuela\u2019s Authoritarian Leader From Power?\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The stakes could hardly be higher.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This July, for the first time in more than a decade, Venezuelans will vote in a presidential election with an opposition candidate who has a fighting \u2014 if slim and improbable \u2014 chance at winning.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Amid an economic and democratic crisis that has led <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/07\/world\/americas\/venezuelan-migrants-us-border.html\" title=\"\">more than seven million<\/a> Venezuelans to abandon the country \u2014 considered among the world\u2019s largest displacements \u2014 Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, the country\u2019s authoritarian president, has done something few thought he would: allowed <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/06\/world\/americas\/edmundo-gonzalez-venezuela-elections.html#:~:text=Edmundo%20Gonz%C3%A1lez%2C%20a%20former%20diplomat,Nicol%C3%A1s%20Maduro%20in%20national%20elections.\" title=\"\">an opposition candidate<\/a> with widespread support to appear on the ballot.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Though largely unknown, the challenger is leading in several polls, underscoring how many Venezuelans are hungry for change.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, few have illusions that the vote will be democratic or fair. And even if a majority of voters cast their vote against Mr. Maduro, there is widespread doubt that he would allow the results to become public \u2014 or accept them if they do.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Venezuela prepares to vote at a moment when the country is facing consequential issues that will resonate far beyond its borders.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">They include overseeing the fate of the country\u2019s vast oil reserves, the world\u2019s largest; resetting \u2014 or not \u2014 battered relations with the United States; deciding whether Iran, China and Russia can continue depending on Venezuela as a key ally in the Western Hemisphere; and confronting an internal <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/05\/17\/world\/americas\/venezuela-economy.html\" title=\"\">humanitarian crisis<\/a> that has propelled a once prosperous nation into immense suffering.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A win for Mr. Maduro could drive Venezuela further into the hands of U.S. adversaries, intensify poverty and repression and spur an even larger exodus of people to head north toward the United States, where an immigration surge has become a central theme in the November presidential election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His opponent is Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez, a former diplomat who became the surprise consensus candidate of the opposition after its popular leader, Mar\u00eda Corina Machado, was <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/26\/world\/americas\/venezuela-presidential-election-opposition.html\" title=\"\">barred by Mr. Maduro\u2019s government<\/a> from running.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His supporters hope he can help the country cast aside 25 years of Chavismo, the socialist movement that began with the democratic election of Hugo Ch\u00e1vez in 1998 and has since grown more authoritarian.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ahead of the July 28 vote, Mr. Maduro, 61, has in his grip the legislature, the military, the police, the justice system, the national election council, the country\u2019s budget and much of the media, not to mention violent paramilitary gangs <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/04\/22\/world\/americas\/armed-civilian-bands-in-venezuela-prop-up-unpopular-president.html\" title=\"\">called colectivos<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez, 74, and Ms. Machado, 56, have made it clear that they are a package deal. Ms. Machado has been rallying voters at events across the country, where she is received like a rock star, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MariaCorinaYA\/status\/1788366250621477064\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">filling city blocks<\/a> with people <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/VenteVenezuela\/status\/1788607072822583465\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">making emotional pleas<\/a> for her to save the country. Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez has stayed closer to Caracas, the capital, holding meetings and conducting television interviews.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In a joint interview, Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez said he was \u201ctaken by surprise\u201d when Mr. Maduro allowed him to register as a candidate, and still had no clear explanation why.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">While Mr. Maduro has held elections in recent years, a key tactic has been to ban legitimate challengers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The last competitive presidential election was held in 2013, when Mr. Maduro narrowly beat a longtime opposition figure, Henrique Capriles. In the next vote, in 2018, the government barred the country\u2019s most popular opposition figures from running, and the United States, the European Union and dozens of other nations refused to recognize the results.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But in recent months, Ms. Machado said, the country has witnessed a series of events few thought possible: Mr. Maduro\u2019s government allowed an opposition primary vote to go forward, in which turnout was enormous and Ms. Machado emerged as the clear winner; the opposition \u2014 infamous for its infighting \u2014 managed to coalesce around Ms. Machado; and when she wasn\u2019t able to run, opposition leaders united to back a replacement, Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cNever in 25 years have we entered an electoral process in a position of such strength,\u201d Ms. Machado said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">(Both declined to say exactly what role Ms. Machado, if any, might take on in a Gonz\u00e1lez government.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Three polls conducted inside the country showed that a majority of respondents planned to vote for Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In a dozen interviews in different parts of the country this month, voters showed widespread support for the opposition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cHe is going to win, I am convinced of it,\u201d said Elena Rodr\u00edguez, 62, a retired nurse in the state of Sucre. Ms. Rodr\u00edguez said that 11 family members had left the country to flee poverty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro still retains a slice of support inside Venezuela, and can motivate people to the ballot box with the promise of food and other incentives.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One Maduro supporter in Sucre, Jes\u00fas Meza D\u00edaz, 59, said he would vote for the current president because he trusted him to navigate the country through economic problems for which he blamed U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Perhaps the most important question, though, is not if Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez could attract enough votes to win \u2014 but whether Mr. Maduro is ready or willing to cede power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Maduro government has been choked by U.S. sanctions on the country\u2019s vital oil industry, and some analysts say he allowed Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez to run only because it might help him sway Washington to ease up on the sanctions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI think the negotiation with the United States is what is making an electoral process possible,\u201d said Luz Mely Reyes, a prominent Venezuelan journalist.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro has hardly indicated that he is ready to leave office. He promised a large crowd of followers in February that he would win the election \u201c<a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=wNKBK16wG0w\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">by hook or by crook<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since January, his government has detained and jailed 10 members of Ms. Machado\u2019s political team. Another five have warrants out for their arrest and are hiding out in the Argentine embassy in Caracas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Avi Roa, the wife of Emill Brandt, a leader in Ms. Machado\u2019s party who has been detained since March, called her husband\u2019s capture a \u201chorrible terror.\u201d Irama Macias, the wife of jailed Machado ally Luis Camacaro, called his detention \u201ca very cruel thing\u201d that \u201cshouldn\u2019t happen in any part of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A proposal in the legislature, called the Law Against Fascism, could allow the government to suspend Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez\u2019s campaign at any moment, said Laura Dib, the Venezuela expert at the Washington Office on Latin America. \u201cThis is a constant risk,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If Mr. Maduro does give up power, it would almost surely be the result of an exit deal negotiated with the opposition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ms. Machado has argued repeatedly that her main challenge is to make Mr. Maduro see that staying in power is unsustainable \u2014 that his government is running out of money, that too many Venezuelans want him out and that Chavismo is crumbling from the inside.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe best option is a negotiated exit,\u201d she said in the interview, \u201cand the later it comes, the worse it will be.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The country\u2019s economic situation is dire, much of Mr. Maduro\u2019s base has turned against him and there are signs that Mr. Maduro is fearful of an internal rupture: He recently turned on a high-ranking ally, oil minister Tareck El-Aissami, jailing him on accusations of corruption.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The move was seen as a warning to anyone who might challenge him from the inside.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But few people see Mr. Maduro as so weak that he would be forced to leave. And Mr. Maduro has a strong incentive to hold on: He and other officials in his government are being investigated by the International Criminal Court <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/09\/16\/world\/americas\/venezuela-un-killings-torture.html\" title=\"\">for crimes against humanity<\/a>. He is also <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/opa\/pr\/nicol-s-maduro-moros-and-14-current-and-former-venezuelan-officials-charged-narco-terrorism#:~:text=Maduro%20Moros%2C%20Cabello%20Rond%C3%B3n%2C%20Carvajal,cocaine%20into%20the%20United%20States\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">wanted by the U.S. government<\/a>, which has offered $15 million for information leading to his arrest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If Mr. Maduro did leave the presidency, he would almost surely want to be shielded from prosecution, something that could be difficult to guarantee.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, Ms. Machado and Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez, in the joint interview, indicated a willingness to negotiate a peaceful transition with the Maduro government before the election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe are absolutely willing to move forward in putting on the table all the necessary terms and guarantees,\u201d said Ms. Machado, \u201cso that all parties feel that it is a fair process.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One senior American official said there was no indication that talks about Mr. Maduro\u2019s departure were happening now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But, the official added, Mr. Maduro\u2019s government was still talking to U.S. officials and to the opposition, a sign that Mr. Maduro continued to seek international legitimacy and sanctions relief. That could make him change his posture, the official said, providing a sliver of optimism for the country\u2019s future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Isayen Herrera<!-- --> contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela; Nayrobis Rodr\u00edguez from Cuman\u00e1, Venezuela; and <!-- -->Genevieve Glatsky<!-- --> from Bogot\u00e1, Colombia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/11\/world\/americas\/venezuela-elections.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The stakes could hardly be higher. This July, for the first time in more than a decade, Venezuelans will vote in a presidential election with an opposition candidate who has a fighting \u2014 if slim and improbable \u2014 chance at winning. Amid an economic and democratic crisis that has led more than seven million Venezuelans [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":48433,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/11\/multimedia\/11venezuela-opposition-promo\/11venezuela-opposition-01-mfkc-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[25527,67,5401,1891,2974,15506],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48432"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48432"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48432\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48434,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48432\/revisions\/48434"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48433"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}