{"id":52686,"date":"2024-05-17T09:11:13","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T09:11:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/17\/israel-resists-grand-bargain-as-u-s-and-saudis-work-on-security-pact\/"},"modified":"2024-05-17T09:11:13","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T09:11:13","slug":"israel-resists-grand-bargain-as-u-s-and-saudis-work-on-security-pact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/17\/israel-resists-grand-bargain-as-u-s-and-saudis-work-on-security-pact\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel Resists Grand Bargain as U.S. and Saudis Work on Security Pact"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/17\/multimedia\/17dc-saudi-israel-hmkl\/17dc-saudi-israel-hmkl-facebookJumbo.jpg?fit=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Israel Resists Grand Bargain as U.S. and Saudis Work on Security Pact\" title=\"Israel Resists Grand Bargain as U.S. and Saudis Work on Security Pact\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Two years into President Biden\u2019s term, his aides began negotiating with Saudi leaders to have the kingdom establish diplomatic relations with Israel. But when the Israel-Hamas war began last October, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/10\/08\/us\/politics\/saudi-arabia-israel-palestinians-hamas.html\" title=\"\">the talks withered<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">American and Saudi officials have <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/08\/world\/middleeast\/blinken-middle-east-visit-israel-gaza.html\" title=\"\">tried to revive<\/a> prospects for a deal by <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/09\/world\/middleeast\/blinken-israel-saudi-palestinian-state.html\" title=\"\">demanding more from Israel<\/a> \u2014 a cease-fire in Gaza and irreversible steps toward the founding of a Palestinian nation. Now those officials say they are close to a final agreement on the main elements of what the Saudis want from the deal: a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense pact and cooperation on a civilian nuclear program in the kingdom<em class=\"css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0\">.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi leader, about these matters in private on his <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/29\/world\/middleeast\/us-antony-blinken-saudi-arabia.html\" title=\"\">visit last month to Riyadh<\/a>, according to the State Department. And Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, is expected to follow up when he goes to Saudi Arabia and Israel this weekend.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But there are no signs that Israeli leaders are moving to join them, despite the symbolic importance for Israel of establishing ties with Saudi Arabia, the most powerful Arab nation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That resistance, along with a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/08\/us\/politics\/biden-israel-weapons-rafah.html\" title=\"\">potential full-scale assault<\/a> by the Israeli military on the Palestinian city of Rafah, puts in jeopardy a potential three-way grand bargain that Mr. Biden envisions as the foundation to a long-term solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has rebuffed calls for the creation of a Palestinian state, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/05\/world\/middleeast\/netanyahu-israel-war-gaza.html\" title=\"\">saying<\/a> that it would become a \u201cterror haven.\u201d Most Israelis also oppose it, according to polls. Mr. Netanyahu has not proposed a governance system for Gaza, and Yoav Gallant, the defense minister, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/15\/world\/middleeast\/israel-rafah-border-gallant-blinken.html\" title=\"\">criticized him<\/a> on Wednesday for the lack of such a plan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since Mr. Blinken\u2019s visit to Saudi Arabia, American and Saudi officials have begun challenging Mr. Netanyahu by publicly saying they are getting closer to agreement on a package that they will offer Israel. Mr. Netanyahu can either take the megadeal and move toward regional peace and potential security cooperation with Saudi Arabia that could counter Iran, their shared adversary \u2014 or reject it and perpetuate the cycle of Israeli-Palestinian violence and Israel\u2019s isolation in the region, they say.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe continue to work to finalize both the bilateral pieces of such an agreement as well as what the pathway to an independent Palestinian state would look like,\u201d Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesman, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/briefings\/department-press-briefing-may-6-2024\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> this month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The \u201cbilateral\u201d part was a reference to the talks between the United States and Saudi Arabia on their agreement, which in addition to a defense treaty would involve cooperation on a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/04\/01\/us\/politics\/saudi-arabia-nuclear-biden-administration.html\" title=\"\">civilian nuclear program with uranium enrichment in the kingdom<\/a>, the sale of advanced American-made weapons and, potentially, a trade deal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">U.S. officials have <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/briefings\/department-press-briefing-may-2-2024\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">emphasized<\/a> that Israel must agree to a Palestinian state for any agreement to be finalized. Mr. Sullivan <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8f5b6401-6c7c-4f73-8bea-ca9e9a10e9ed\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">delivered that message<\/a> on May 4 at a Financial Times conference in London.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe integrated vision is a bilateral understanding between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia combined with normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, combined with meaningful steps on behalf of the Palestinian people,\u201d he said, adding: \u201cAll of that has to come together.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This month, some Saudi and American policy analysts who were briefed by Saudi officials have argued that a bilateral deal \u2014 a \u201c<a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2024\/may\/01\/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">plan B<\/a>\u201d \u2014 might be the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2024\/05\/08\/saudi-arabia-us-deal-israel-egypt\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">best course<\/a> because the Israeli-Palestinian part <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mei.edu\/blog\/us-saudi-accords-must-not-remain-hostage-normalization-israel\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">seemed too difficult<\/a> to achieve.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Saudi officials have not made any such suggestion publicly and continue to insist on a larger deal with an Israeli commitment on a Palestinian nation. But they have noted how far the U.S.-Saudi talks have advanced.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe are very, very close; most of the work has already been done,\u201d Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia, said at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh last month. On a pathway to a Palestinian state, he said, \u201cWe have the broad outlines of what we think needs to happen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He suggested that Israel could be persuaded, referring to \u201cmechanisms within the toolbox of the international community that can overcome the resistance of any party, any spoiler, on any side.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">However, even the Saudis\u2019 most immediate demand of Israel \u2014 a sustainable cease-fire in Gaza \u2014 seems out of reach for now. Israel has avoided committing to a permanent cease-fire, and efforts by Arab mediators to get Israel to agree to a temporary cease-fire for the release of some hostages <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/05\/09\/world\/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah\/cease-fire-talks-are-put-on-hold-as-tempers-flare-over-israeli-actions-in-rafah?smid=url-share\" title=\"\">faltered last week<\/a>. At the same time, Israel has stepped up <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/09\/us\/politics\/biden-kirby-israel-hamas-rafah.html?smid=url-share\" title=\"\">strikes in Rafah<\/a>, where more than one million Palestinians have sought shelter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Saudi Arabia, the United States and other nations have <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/02\/15\/world\/middleeast\/rafah-israel-offensive.html\" title=\"\">warned Israel<\/a> not to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/08\/us\/politics\/biden-bombs-israel.html\" title=\"\">carry out a major offensive<\/a> there.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Given all that, Saudi officials remain wary of the domestic political cost of normalizing relations with Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cAt this stage, it looks like a long shot,\u201d said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the government. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some officials in the region say the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain got very little out of normalizing ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords that the Trump administration helped engineer in 2020. The Israeli government <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/16\/magazine\/israel-west-bank-settler-violence-impunity.html\" title=\"\">did not fulfill promises<\/a> to respect Palestinian territory in the West Bank.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe hear this from Saudis all the time: look what happened to the Emiratis, look what happened to the Bahrainis, when they went full on,\u201d said Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Before the war, U.S. and Saudi officials planned to ask the Israelis for modest concessions for the Palestinians, U.S. officials say. But the stakes are higher now. Mr. Biden sees a deal involving a Palestinian nation as a critical component of the war\u2019s endgame. And Israeli acquiescence to such a state could be the only way for Prince Mohammed to get broad support for the deal from citizens enraged by the killings of an estimated 35,000 Palestinians in Gaza.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Biden\u2019s willingness to grant a mutual defense treaty and other benefits to Prince Mohammed is a sharp departure from his vow during the 2020 presidential campaign to ensure the country remains a \u201cpariah\u201d because of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/08\/26\/world\/middleeast\/saudi-killing-migrants-yemen.html\" title=\"\">human rights violations<\/a>. Those include the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/09\/14\/us\/politics\/us-war-crimes-yemen-saudi-arabia.html\" title=\"\">killings of civilians<\/a> during the Yemen war and the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/video\/world\/middleeast\/100000006154117\/khashoggi-istanbul-death-saudi-consulate.html\" title=\"\">murder in 2018 of Jamal Khashoggi<\/a>, a Washington Post columnist and Virginia resident, by Saudi agents in Istanbul.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">U.S. and Saudi officials are modeling the defense treaty on the pacts that the United States has <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/09\/19\/us\/politics\/biden-saudi-defense-treaty.html\" title=\"\">with Japan and its other Asian allies<\/a>. The two sides are trying to work out the conditions that would trigger a mutual defense clause.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Prince Mohammed wants a treaty that is ratified by a supermajority in the U.S. Senate. But administration officials say that would be hard without a robust Israeli-Palestinian component in the deal, since skepticism of Saudi Arabia is strong among many Democratic and some Republican lawmakers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For Saudi Arabia, the biggest threat is Iran. Saudi officials remain bitter that the Trump administration did not intervene militarily when oil installations in the kingdom were attacked with <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/09\/14\/world\/middleeast\/saudi-arabia-refineries-drone-attack.html\" title=\"\">drones and missiles in 2019<\/a> \u2014 an assault that Saudi and U.S. officials say was linked to Iran.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe basic concept that they\u2019ve been trying to establish is: What would trigger U.S. kinetic action in defense of Saudi Arabia?\u201d said Hussein Ibish, a senior scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cSaudi Arabia and others, including the Emirates, don\u2019t know when the U.S. would act,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">U.S. officials say they also plan to extract promises from Saudi Arabia to limit cooperation with China on military matters and on advanced technology, and that the kingdom would continue to buy oil in dollars rather than renminbi, China\u2019s currency. However, China has no interest in being a security guarantor in the Middle East. And analysts say there is little chance that Saudi Arabia would forsake the dollar \u2014 which its own currency is pegged to \u2014 for the renminbi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Biden administration also hopes Saudi Arabia will commit to keeping oil prices from surging, especially as the U.S. presidential election approaches. U.S. and Saudi officials <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/25\/us\/politics\/us-saudi-oil-deal.html\" title=\"\">clashed over such perceived promises in 2022<\/a>, when the Saudis went against Mr. Biden\u2019s wishes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Locking in American cooperation on a civilian nuclear program is important for Prince Mohammed. U.S. and Saudi negotiators are working out details of how the United States would maintain strict oversight of in-country uranium enrichment, officials say.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Prince Mohammed <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/sep\/21\/crown-prince-confirms-saudi-arabia-seek-nuclear-arsenal-iran-develops-one\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">says he will develop nuclear weapons<\/a> if Iran does so, and some U.S. lawmakers and many Israeli officials oppose Saudi Arabia having a nuclear program of any kind.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Karen Young, a senior research scholar at Columbia University\u2019s Center on Global Energy Policy, said the nuclear program was the \u201cNo. 1 priority\u201d for Prince Mohammed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For Saudi Arabia, she asserted, \u201cit\u2019s always been a bilateral deal; it\u2019s not a trilateral one.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIsrael is so peripheral,\u201d she said, \u201cwhich is beyond ironic.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/17\/us\/politics\/israel-saudi-arabia-gaza.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two years into President Biden\u2019s term, his aides began negotiating with Saudi leaders to have the kingdom establish diplomatic relations with Israel. But when the Israel-Hamas war began last October, the talks withered. American and Saudi officials have tried to revive prospects for a deal by demanding more from Israel \u2014 a cease-fire in Gaza [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":52687,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/17\/multimedia\/17dc-saudi-israel-hmkl\/17dc-saudi-israel-hmkl-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52394,633,38,9697,52393,52395,2441,221,1396],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52686"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52686"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52686\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52688,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52686\/revisions\/52688"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}