{"id":54036,"date":"2024-05-19T12:22:09","date_gmt":"2024-05-19T12:22:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/19\/the-technocrat-whos-taking-control-of-putins-war-effort\/"},"modified":"2024-05-19T12:22:09","modified_gmt":"2024-05-19T12:22:09","slug":"the-technocrat-whos-taking-control-of-putins-war-effort","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/19\/the-technocrat-whos-taking-control-of-putins-war-effort\/","title":{"rendered":"The Technocrat Who\u2019s Taking Control of Putin\u2019s War Effort"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/16\/world\/00russia-economist\/00russia-economist-facebookJumbo.jpg?fit=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"The Technocrat Who\u2019s Taking Control of Putin\u2019s War Effort\" title=\"The Technocrat Who\u2019s Taking Control of Putin\u2019s War Effort\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In more than two years of war against Ukraine, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has found that the technocrats he assembled to manage the Russian economy have turned out to be his most reliable foot soldiers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Russian leader has now tapped one of them, Andrei R. Belousov, who has no military experience, to become his next defense minister.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Belousov, 65, a fan of Rembrandt who is fond of quoting Fyodor Dostoyevsky and Carl Jung, has for years stood apart from the other technocrats, many of whom have provided excellent economic guidance, even as they <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/fe5fe0ed-e5d4-474e-bb5a-10c9657285d2\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">privately have seen<\/a> Mr. Putin\u2019s provocative geopolitical moves as hazardous for Russia\u2019s economic future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Belousov, however, has been a true believer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His rise shows <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/13\/world\/europe\/russia-defense-minister-ukraine-belousov.html\" title=\"\">how Mr. Putin is fully redirecting Russia\u2019s economy<\/a> toward the war effort and suggests that the Kremlin may grow even more deeply involved in mobilizing industry for the fight. Mr. Putin cast his new defense chief, who joined him on a trip to China in recent days, as a much-needed coordinator for a rapidly changing Russian military industrial complex that is critical to success in the war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cHis job is to open the Defense Ministry to innovation,\u201d Mr. Putin told journalists on Friday, while visiting the Chinese city of Harbin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The philosophy that Mr. Belousov has promoted for decades casts state intervention as the main driver of economic development, as opposed to private business investment, an outlook that makes him particularly relevant to the moment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThere are a number of other quite efficient technocrats. He is different compared to these people,\u201d said Andrei Yakovlev, an economist at Harvard University\u2019s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. His ideological view, Mr. Yakovlev said, is \u201cin some sense close to Putin\u2019s view \u2014 about this confrontation with the West, and the necessity to do many things to defend Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He also brings a clear personal loyalty to Mr. Putin, having advised the president for years, and is expected to ease tensions between the Defense Ministry and the state arms industry at a time when battlefield success depends on industrial might. And he has the clean image of an expert, largely untainted by scandal, and has openly embraced the Russian Orthodox religion \u2014 a major part of Mr. Putin\u2019s campaign for family values.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Sergei M. Guriev, a Russian economist and the provost at <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/en\/about\/what-is-sciences-po\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Sciences Po<\/a>, a research university in Paris, suggested that Mr. Belousov\u2019s appointment reflected the financial pressures that Mr. Putin will face if Russia continues to make large-scale defense outlays.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cPutin understands that he really doesn\u2019t have a lot of money,\u201d Mr. Guriev said. \u201cOne of the indications is that Putin already in 2024 has started talking about increasing taxes. Appointing Belousov sends a signal that he will want spending to be less corrupt and more efficient.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The son of a prominent economist, Mr. Belousov grew up in an intellectual family. His mother was a chemist. His father advised the Soviet government in a high-profile attempt to reform the Communist economy in the 1960s.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Belousov graduated from Russia\u2019s prestigious Moscow State University and spent much of the 1990s and 2000s conducting research and making economic forecasts, first at a Russian Academy of Sciences research institute and later at an economic think tank he founded.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">At the time, his contemporaries, like the Russian central bank chief, Elvira Nabiullina, and the Sberbank boss, Herman Gref, fully embraced Western-style market economics, working to transform Russia into a modern European economy driven by competition, investment and innovation among private businesses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Belousov was different. He understood modern economics and did not want to return to the Soviet system. But he pressed for an aggressive government role in the economy, envisioning a kind of state-directed capitalism.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cHis whole philosophy basically was whatever is happening that\u2019s good, this is driven by the state,\u201d said Konstantin Sonin, an economist at the University of Chicago. \u201cThe state is the source of innovation, the state is what drives business and eventually leads to the development of the economy. Business in this view is a necessary evil but not something that is a force for good.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Belousov also earned a reputation as a good forecaster. A prescient manuscript he released in 2005 warned of an increased likelihood of a financial crisis in 2008-2009, in part from \u201ca cyclical wave of defaults\u201d in high-risk financial instruments.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He joined the government in 2006 as a deputy economy minister. He later served as economic chief to Mr. Putin when he was prime minister and became Russia\u2019s economic development minister when the Russian leader returned to the Kremlin as president in 2012, following a four-year hiatus. Mr. Belousov ran the ministry for a year before joining the Kremlin as its top economic adviser.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">From his influential perch, Mr. Belousov tussled with other Russian economists, who argued for restrained state interference in private markets so businesses could drive growth. He wanted state money from the national welfare fund to be spent on infrastructure and other government development projects; his opponents argued the funds should be saved for financial emergencies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Despite crossing swords with top corporate leaders, he worked to better the country\u2019s business environment, spearheading a state-backed agency that improved Russia\u2019s position in the World Bank rankings for ease of doing business to No. 28 in 2019 from No. 120 in 2011.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Belousov\u2019s caused a furor in 2018, when he proposed raising about 500 billion rubles (or about $7.5 billion at the time) for the government from a surprise \u201cwindfall\u201d tax on metals and chemical firms, which he said had been reaping extraordinary profits.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The proposal ignited a sell-off of stocks in those sectors and ultimately failed. But as the Russian government looked for ways to shore up money to fund the war effort last year, the idea of a windfall profits tax re-emerged. This time, it went through.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In early 2020, Mr. Belousov was named deputy prime minister, helping run Russia\u2019s Covid-19 response and standing in as prime minister when Mikhail V. Mishustin came down with the virus.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">At the time, the Russian publication Metla published an <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/metla.press\/2020\/preemnik-mishustina-zarazilsya-nepotizmom\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">article<\/a> highlighting how a small engineering and digital consulting firm run by Mr. Belousov\u2019s son, Pavel, had won government contracts with the state arms company, space agency and Trade Ministry. It also said his son was driving around in a Mercedes S.U.V. costing roughly $79,000.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">By then, Mr. Belousov was embroiled in another uproar over <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/08\/06\/world\/europe\/russia-american-investor-calvey-sentence.html\" title=\"\">the arrest of an American investor, Michael Calvey<\/a>, who was charged with embezzlement amid a business dispute with a friend of Mr. Belousov. Mr. Calvey denied the charges.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In an interview with Russian Forbes, Mr. Beluosov denied helping his friend secure Mr. Putin\u2019s blessing to have the authorities pressure the American businessman, saying that if he had brought such a matter to the Russian leader, he would have been \u201ccarried out feet first.\u201d Mr. Calvey <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/08\/06\/world\/europe\/russia-american-investor-calvey-sentence.html\" title=\"\">received a five-and-a-half-year suspended sentence<\/a> that was later reduced.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since the Kremlin\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Mr. Belousov has placed himself at the forefront of formulating national \u201cmegaprojects,\u201d where the state is seeking to spur innovation and big leaps in industrial development.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He has promoted one such project for Russia\u2019s domestic drone industry. Another is aimed at microelectronics. He told Kommersant that the \u201cnew normal\u201d in Russia, with restrictions and geopolitical pressures, would last at least a decade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe need our own lines of high-tech products: aviation, shipbuilding, electronics, machine tools, diesel engines, turbines, etc.,\u201d he said in the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.kommersant.ru\/doc\/6428575\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">interview<\/a>. \u201cIf this product is needed, then we must be able to make it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Many experts question whether such an approach can work in Russia, where corruption is rife and the rule of law weak. Despite many attempts over many years, the Russian state has failed to drive innovation, Mr. Guriev said, noting that state investment is often pilfered by corrupt officials.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He said that Mr. Belousov had been in the government for many years and, so far, had had little success creating dynamic new companies, noting that most of the world\u2019s innovation was happening in private companies in places like Silicon Valley.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Nevertheless, Mr. Belousov\u2019s ideas appear to have become intoxicating for Mr. Putin. The Russian leader is looking for a way to make his new war economy a foundation for Russia\u2019s future development, while trying to avoid the excessive military spending many Russians believe led to the Soviet Union\u2019s collapse.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cBelousov\u2019s task would be to make sure that the military gets everything they need and more, but without killing the economy,\u201d said Alexander Kolyandr, a nonresident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a nonprofit based in Washington. \u201cThe needs of the war may justify anything.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Oleg Matsnev<!-- --> contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/19\/world\/europe\/belousov-russia-economy-defense-ministry.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In more than two years of war against Ukraine, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has found that the technocrats he assembled to manage the Russian economy have turned out to be his most reliable foot soldiers. The Russian leader has now tapped one of them, Andrei R. Belousov, who has no military experience, to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":54037,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/16\/world\/00russia-economist\/00russia-economist-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[4794,9255,3979,53571,3102,2171],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54036"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54036"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54036\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54038,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54036\/revisions\/54038"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}