{"id":55405,"date":"2024-05-21T13:33:05","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T13:33:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/21\/after-raisis-death-elections-pose-tricky-test-for-irans-rulers\/"},"modified":"2024-05-21T13:33:05","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T13:33:05","slug":"after-raisis-death-elections-pose-tricky-test-for-irans-rulers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/21\/after-raisis-death-elections-pose-tricky-test-for-irans-rulers\/","title":{"rendered":"After Raisi\u2019s Death, Elections Pose Tricky Test for Iran\u2019s Rulers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/21\/multimedia\/21iran-election-01-gcvk\/21iran-election-01-gcvk-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"After Raisi\u2019s Death, Elections Pose Tricky Test for Iran\u2019s Rulers\" title=\"After Raisi\u2019s Death, Elections Pose Tricky Test for Iran\u2019s Rulers\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For decades, Iran\u2019s leaders could point to high voter turnouts in their elections as proof of the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic\u2019s political system. But as <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/03\/08\/world\/middleeast\/parliamentary-election-iran-conservatives.html\" title=\"\">voter turnout has plummeted in recent years<\/a>, the election they will be now obliged to hold after the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/20\/world\/middleeast\/ebrahim-raisi-iran-dead.html\" title=\"\">death of President Ebrahim Raisi<\/a> will force the political establishment into a decision it does not want to make.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country\u2019s supreme leader, has two options, each carrying risks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He could ensure that the presidential elections, which the Constitution mandates must happen within 50 days after Mr. Raisi\u2019s death, are open to all, from hard-liners to reformists. But that risks a competitive election that could take the country in a direction he does not want.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Or he can repeat his strategy of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/02\/28\/world\/middleeast\/iran-election-parliament.html\" title=\"\">recent elections<\/a>, and block not only reformist rivals but even moderate, loyal opposition figures. That choice might leave him facing the embarrassment of even lower voter turnout, a move that would be interpreted as a stinging rebuke of his increasingly authoritarian state.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Voter turnout in Iran has been on a downward trajectory in the last several years. In 2016, more than 60 percent of the country\u2019s voters participated in parliamentary elections. By 2020, the figure was 42 percent. Officials had vowed that <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/03\/08\/world\/middleeast\/parliamentary-election-iran-conservatives.html\" title=\"\">the result this March<\/a> would be higher \u2014 instead it came in at just below 41 percent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Just a week before Mr. Raisi\u2019s death, the final round of parliamentary elections in Tehran garnered only 8 percent of potential votes \u2014 a stunning number in a country where Mr. Khamenei once mocked Western democracies for voter turnout of 30 percent to 40 percent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cKhamenei has been presented with a golden opportunity to easily, in a face-saving way, allow people to enter the political process \u2014 if he chooses to seize this chance,\u201d said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iranian political analyst and editor of Amwaj, an independent news media outlet. \u201cUnfortunately, what has happened in the last few years indicates he will not take that route.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Iran is a theocracy with a parallel system of governance in which elected bodies are supervised by appointed councils. Key state policies on nuclear, military and foreign affairs are decided by Ayatollah Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council, while the Revolutionary Guards have been increasing their influence over the economy and politics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The president\u2019s role is more limited to domestic policy and economic matters, but it is still an influential position.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Elections also remain an important litmus test of public sentiment. Low turnout in recent years has been seen as a clear sign of the souring mood toward clerics and a political establishment that has become increasingly hard-line and conservative.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cFor the regime, this distance \u2014 this detachment between the state and society \u2014 is a serious problem,\u201d said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. \u201cWhat they want is a to contain conservative unity, but it\u2019s hard to fill Raisi\u2019s shoes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/20\/world\/middleeast\/ebrahim-raisi-iran-dead.html\" title=\"\">Mr. Raisi,<\/a> a cleric who worked for years in the judiciary and was involved in some of the most brutal acts of repression in the country\u2019s history, was a staunch loyalist of Mr. Khamenei and his worldview.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A devoted upholder of religious rule in Iran, Mr. Raisi was long seen as a potential successor to the supreme leader \u2014 despite, or perhaps because of, his lack of a forceful personality that would pose a risk to Mr. Khamenei. Now, with no clear candidate to back, Mr. Khamenei could face infighting within his conservative base.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cRaisi was a yes man, and his unimpressiveness was sort of the point,\u201d said Arash Azizi, a historian who focuses on Iran and lectures at Clemson University in South Carolina. \u201cThe political establishment includes many people with serious financial and political interests. There will be jockeying for power.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The candidates who are allowed to run will be indicative of what type of path the supreme leader wants to take.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/05\/08\/world\/middleeast\/suddenly-tehrans-mayor-becomes-a-patron-of-the-arts.html\" title=\"\">Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf<\/a>, a pragmatic technocrat who is the speaker of Parliament and one of the country\u2019s perpetual presidential candidates, will likely try to run. But his performance in Parliament in recent years has been rated poorly, Mr. Azizi said. Parliament has done little to help resolve Iran\u2019s economic crisis, and Mr. Ghalibaf, despite calling himself an advocate for Iran\u2019s poor, attracted national outrage in 2022 over reports that his family had gone on a shopping spree in Turkey.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Another likely contender is <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2013\/05\/29\/world\/middleeast\/saeed-jalili-emerges-as-establishment-favorite-in-irans-presidential-race.html\" title=\"\">Saeed Jalili<\/a>, a former Revolutionary Guards fighter who became a nuclear negotiator and is seen as a hard-line loyalist of Mr. Khamenei. His candidacy would not bode well for potential outreach to the West, Mr. Azizi said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In all of Iran\u2019s recent elections, Mr. Khamenei has shown himself willing to cull any reformist or even moderate candidates seen as loyal opposition. The results have been clear: In 2021, Mr. Raisi won with the lowest ever turnout in a presidential election, at 48 percent. By contrast, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/05\/20\/world\/middleeast\/iran-election-hassan-rouhani.html\" title=\"\">more than 70 percent of Iran\u2019s 56 million eligible voters<\/a> cast ballots when President Hassan Rouhani was elected in 2017.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And so far, there is no sign that Iran\u2019s political establishment will reverse course.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s a system that is moving away from its republican roots and becoming more authoritarian,\u201d Ms. Vakil said, adding of Mr. Khamenei: \u201cAs long as he is comfortable with repressive control, and the elite maintain their unity, don\u2019t expect to see a change.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that what was most likely to deter Mr. Khamenei from widening the race was his for a leadership that can ensure a smooth and stable transition when a new supreme leader is chosen. Mr. Khamenei is 85 years old and in frail health.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet Mr. Khamenei has equally compelling reasons to consider opening up to moderates. Under Mr. Raisi, the country had faced a series of dramatic upheavals, with the economy tanking and unemployment skyrocketing. And the violent repression of the anti-government protests that erupted in 2021 after the death in custody of young woman accused of improperly wearing a head scarf has left a large portion of the population disillusioned.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">While it looked extremely unlikely that Mr. Khamenei would shift course, Ms. Geranmayeh said, \u201cthe system in Iran has the ability to surprise itself.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, though a known hard-liner, surprised the political establishment with his populist persona.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And Mr. Rouhani, a moderate within the system, surprised many with his attempts to open up to the West economically, and he succeeded in reaching a nuclear deal before it was scuppered by Donald J. Trump, the United States president at the time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet there is no obvious moderate to enter the race, and even if one did, there is no certainty how the public would react.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s a big question whether people will come out and vote, because there has been such strong disillusionment,\u201d Ms. Geranmayeh said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And in a country whose leaders came to power on the back of popular revolution \u2014 and where anti-government protests have already forced the government to unleash a repressive backlash to stop them \u2014 the longer term risk is clear, said Mr. Shabani, the political analyst. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIf people stop believing in change through the ballot box,\u201d he said, \u201cthere is only one other option.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/21\/world\/middleeast\/iran-election-president-death-ayatollah.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For decades, Iran\u2019s leaders could point to high voter turnouts in their elections as proof of the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic\u2019s political system. But as voter turnout has plummeted in recent years, the election they will be now obliged to hold after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi will force the political establishment into [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55406,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/05\/21\/multimedia\/21iran-election-01-gcvk\/21iran-election-01-gcvk-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1860,67,21116,2695,53743,54683,848,26808],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55405"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55405"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55407,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55405\/revisions\/55407"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}