{"id":66473,"date":"2024-06-05T19:03:10","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T19:03:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/05\/a-cease-fire-in-gaza-might-be-the-easy-part-fulfilling-it-will-be-harder\/"},"modified":"2024-06-05T19:03:10","modified_gmt":"2024-06-05T19:03:10","slug":"a-cease-fire-in-gaza-might-be-the-easy-part-fulfilling-it-will-be-harder","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/05\/a-cease-fire-in-gaza-might-be-the-easy-part-fulfilling-it-will-be-harder\/","title":{"rendered":"A Cease-Fire in Gaza Might Be the Easy Part. Fulfilling It Will Be Harder."},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/05\/multimedia\/05israel-ceasefire-1-cwlt\/05israel-ceasefire-1-cwlt-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,549&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"A Cease-Fire in Gaza Might Be the Easy Part. Fulfilling It Will Be Harder.\" title=\"A Cease-Fire in Gaza Might Be the Easy Part. Fulfilling It Will Be Harder.\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Even as Hamas and the Israeli government appear to be inching closer to a cease-fire agreement, analysts are deeply skeptical that the sides will ever implement a deal that goes beyond a temporary truce.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">At issue is a three-phase agreement, proposed by Israel and backed by the United States and some Arab countries, which if fully realized could eventually see the total withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, the return of all remaining hostages captured in the Oct. 7 attack and a reconstruction plan for the territory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But making it to that finish line is impossible if the parties are unwilling to even start the race or to agree on where it should end. Fundamentally, the wrangling is not just about the how long a cease-fire in Gaza should last or at what point it should be implemented, but whether Israel can ever accept a long-term truce as long as Hamas retains significant control.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For Israel to agree to Hamas\u2019s demands for a permanent cease-fire from the start, it must acknowledge that Hamas will remain undestroyed and will play a role in the territory\u2019s future, conditions Israel\u2019s government cannot abide. On the flip side, Hamas says it won\u2019t consider a temporary cease-fire without the guarantees of a permanent one that effectively ensures its survival, even at the cost of countless more Palestinian lives, lest Israel restart the war once its hostages are returned.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet after eight months of a grinding war, there are signs that the sides could be moving closer to the first proposed phase: a six-week conditional cease-fire. While that step is hardly guaranteed, getting to the plan\u2019s second phase, which envisages a permanent cessation of hostilities and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, is even more unlikely, analysts said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt is wrong to see this proposal as more than a stopgap,\u201d said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. \u201cMost important, this plan doesn\u2019t answer the fundamental question of who rules Gaza after the conflict. This is a cease-fire plan, not a day-after plan.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The leaders of Hamas and the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are considering what the deal will mean not only for the future of the war, but for their own political futures. In order to get buy-in from skeptical partners for the first stage of the plan, Mr. Netanyahu is especially incentivized to keep his commitments to the latter phases vague.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In each camp are influential figures willing to prolong the war. Some inside Hamas say the group, dominated by those still in Gaza, like the local leader Yahya Sinwar, should not agree to any deal that does not immediately create a permanent cease-fire. In Israel, the mere mention of stopping the war and a full troop withdrawal has led Mr. Netanyahu\u2019s far-right allies to threaten to bring down his government.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">At a news conference on Tuesday, Osama Hamdan, a Hamas spokesman, said the group would not approve an agreement that does not begin with the promise of a permanent cease-fire and include provisions for the total withdrawal of Israeli troops and a \u201cserious and real deal\u201d to exchange the remaining hostages for a much larger number of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Shlomo Brom, a retired brigadier general and senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, said that \u201cclearly to everyone this proposal is mostly political.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe first stage is good for Netanyahu, because some hostages will be freed,\u201d Mr. Brom said. \u201cBut he\u2019ll never get to the second stage. As before, he\u2019ll find something wrong in what Hamas does, which will not be difficult to find.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">More than 100 hostages were released under <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-67589259\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">a more limited deal last November<\/a>, which lasted roughly a week. Mr. Netanyahu said Hamas had not produced all promised female hostages as promised; Hamas said Israel rejected alternatives. As the truce expired, Hamas launched rockets into Israel. Since then, the war has continued unbated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">There is no guarantee this time, either, that the first phase will be succeeded by the second. That might suit Mr. Netanyahu fine, analysts agreed, pacifying the Americans with a temporary cease-fire and increased aid to Gaza while finding reasons not to move beyond that agreement.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Netanyahu is hoping, analysts said, that Hamas will not agree to the proposal at all, and thus get him off the hook. As hostilities with Hezbollah heat up in the north, he is suggesting to his allies that even if he must agree to the Gaza proposal, negotiations on the second stage could go on indefinitely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">President Biden, who laid out the plan from the White House last week, has his own political considerations in having the sides agree, sooner rather than later. He clearly wants a halt to the Gaza war well before the presidential election in November, said Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment, adding, \u201cThe only party really in a hurry is Biden.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So Mr. Biden is pressing both Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas to accept the agreement quickly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As Israeli troops have reached the Egyptian border and the war\u2019s major operations wind down, the president has said Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another Oct. 7-style attack and is pushing Mr. Netanyahu to publicly accept his own proposal. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Netanyahu has done his best to confuse everyone about his intentions, denying that his goal of dismantling Hamas has changed and refusing to support a permanent end to the fighting, which he called \u201ca nonstarter\u201d on Sunday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Biden also emphasized that Hamas \u201cshould take the deal,\u201d which it has not accepted, only saying that it views the proposal \u201cpositively.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The proposal, as explained by Mr. Biden and his officials, has <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/01\/world\/middleeast\/biden-israel-gaza-cease-fire.html\" title=\"\">three stages<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In the first phase, both sides would observe a six-week cease-fire. Israel would withdraw from major population centers in Gaza and a number of hostages would be released, including women, the elderly and the wounded. The hostages would be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees, their names still to be negotiated. Aid would begin flowing into Gaza, working up to some 600 trucks a day. Displaced Palestinian civilians would be allowed to return to their homes in northern Gaza.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">During the first phase, Israel and Hamas would continue to negotiate to reach the second phase: a permanent cease-fire, the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and the freeing of all remaining living hostages. If the talks take more than six weeks, the first phase of the truce will continue until they reach a deal, Mr. Biden said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If they ever do. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Israeli officials from Mr. Netanyahu on down have insisted that Israel must retain security control over Gaza in the future, making it highly unlikely that they would agree to withdraw Israeli troops entirely from the buffer zone they have built inside Gaza. And even if they do, Israel insists on the ability to go in and out of Gaza whenever it deems necessary to combat remaining or reestablished Hamas or other fighters, as it now does in the West Bank.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As a former senior intelligence officer said, bluntly, \u201cThere is no good solution here and everyone knows it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Stopping the war without ensuring Hamas can\u2019t come back presents a real dilemma, he said. But is it realistic to expect that continuing the war will achieve this aim? The release of the hostages \u2014 an estimated 125 of whom are still being held by Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, though dozens are believed to be dead \u2014 is a top priority, but it\u2019s unclear if continuing the war increases the pressure on Hamas to make a deal for their freedom or puts the hostages who are still alive in further danger. And even if Israel stops the war after so many months of captivity, their release could take more time than they have.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The timing may also work for an agreement on the first phase, because Israel is fighting to complete its military control over Rafah, in southernmost Gaza, and the Egyptian border. The fighting, which Israel has undertaken with fewer troops, less bombing and more care for civilians after American pressure, is expected to take two or three more weeks, Israeli officials suggest, roughly the time it would take to negotiate the first phase of the cease-fire agreement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Israeli troops are moving slowly into the more populated areas of Rafah city, pushing civilians to evacuate farther west, toward the coast and areas officially designated as safe spaces, even if housing, water, food and health care are rudimentary at best and civilians continue to die from Israeli strikes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">According to Israeli officials and the Institute for the Study of War, which is <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/iran-update-june-3-2024\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">tracking the conflict<\/a>, \u201cIsraeli forces continue clearing operations in central Rafah\u201d and \u201cintelligence-based, targeted operations.\u201d They raided what Israel called \u201can active combat complex\u201d on Monday and carried out drone and airstrikes on what was called a \u201cHamas weapons production site in Rafah.\u201d Hamas fighters have responded with mortars along the border, roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">With Hamas forces effectively dismantled as organized units, and fighting almost exclusively as small bands, Israel can declare the major war in Gaza over, analysts said, while continuing to battle Hamas and other fighters where they emerge or are still concentrated, opening the way for a temporary cease-fire.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"> \u201cIsrael has done a lot, with Hamas dramatically degraded,\u201d Mr. Sachs said. But Israel has put nothing in place to administer Gaza when the military pulls back.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Brom concurred that Israel\u2019s military had made real progress. \u201cMy interpretation,\u201d he said, \u201cis that the military and terrorist capabilities of Hamas are weakened terribly.\u201d It is always difficult to declare victory in such an asymmetrical conflict, he said. \u201cDid we win against Islamic State? It still exists and operates,\u201d but much diminished.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Despite incessant American prodding, the analysts said, Mr. Netanyahu has refused to decide who or what will govern Gaza, if not Hamas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt should be an integrated political and military strategy, but the political side is completely lacking,\u201d Mr. Brom said. \u201cWe can prevent Hamas from ruling Gaza, but who will replace them? That\u2019s the Achilles\u2019 heel of the whole operation.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/05\/world\/europe\/israel-gaza-cease-fire-negotiations.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Even as Hamas and the Israeli government appear to be inching closer to a cease-fire agreement, analysts are deeply skeptical that the sides will ever implement a deal that goes beyond a temporary truce. At issue is a three-phase agreement, proposed by Israel and backed by the United States and some Arab countries, which if [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/05\/multimedia\/05israel-ceasefire-1-cwlt\/05israel-ceasefire-1-cwlt-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[7275,8768,62779,43,3318,3651],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66473"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66473"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66473\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66475,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66473\/revisions\/66475"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}