{"id":66749,"date":"2024-06-06T05:49:03","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T05:49:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/06\/in-global-elections-strongmen-are-taken-down-a-notch\/"},"modified":"2024-06-06T05:49:03","modified_gmt":"2024-06-06T05:49:03","slug":"in-global-elections-strongmen-are-taken-down-a-notch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/06\/in-global-elections-strongmen-are-taken-down-a-notch\/","title":{"rendered":"In Global Elections, Strongmen Are Taken Down a Notch"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/06\/multimedia\/06global-elections-qvpl\/06global-elections-qvpl-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"In Global Elections, Strongmen Are Taken Down a Notch\" title=\"In Global Elections, Strongmen Are Taken Down a Notch\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In India, a powerful leader wins another term but sees his party\u2019s majority vanish. In South Africa, the governing party is humbled by voters for the first time since the end of apartheid. In Britain, a populist insurgent barges into an election that is shaping up to be a crushing defeat for the long-ruling Conservatives.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">If there is a common thread halfway through this global year of elections, it is a desire by voters to send a strong signal to the powers that be \u2014 if not quite a wholesale housecleaning, then a defiant shake-up of the status quo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Even in Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and the handpicked successor of the president, Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, was elected in a landslide last Sunday, voters were rewarding the forces that had uprooted the country\u2019s entrenched establishment only six years earlier.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">With a billion-plus people going to the polls in more than 60 countries, some analysts had feared that 2024 would pose a fateful test for democracy \u2014 one that it might fail. For years, populist and strongmen leaders have chipped away at democratic institutions, sowing doubts about the legitimacy of elections, while social media has swamped voters with disinformation and conspiracy theories.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In some of the biggest, most fragile democracies, leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey had been regarded as close to invincible, using appeals to nationalism or sectarianism to mobilize supporters and bending institutions to suit their purposes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet now, Mr. Modi and Mr. Erdogan have both had their wings clipped. Soaring inflation, chronic unemployment and uneven economic growth have widened inequality in India, Turkey and elsewhere, frustrating voters who have shown a willingness to buck the establishment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe do have electoral systems that are producing outcomes the governing parties didn\u2019t want,\u201d said Ben Ansell, a professor of comparative democratic institutions at the University of Oxford. \u201cThey\u2019ve all been destabilized by a tricky economic environment, and behaving like strongmen hasn\u2019t saved them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Modi and Mr. Erdogan remain in power, each now in his third term. But Mr. Modi\u2019s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., lost dozens of seats and will have to govern in a coalition with two secular parties. Turkey\u2019s opposition <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/01\/world\/middleeast\/turkey-election-results.html\" title=\"\">struck a blow<\/a> against Mr. Erdogan\u2019s Justice and Development Party in April, winning a string of local elections and solidifying its control of important cities like Istanbul and the capital, Ankara.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIn a lot of countries where there\u2019s been talk of backsliding, that\u2019s where we\u2019ve seen a bounce back,\u201d Professor Ansell said. \u201cFor Modi and Erdogan, taking the sheen off their infallibility was very important.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">With so many elections in so many countries, it is dangerous to generalize. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia rolled up 88 percent of the vote in a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/03\/17\/world\/europe\/russia-putin-election.html\" title=\"\">landslide re-election victory<\/a> in March that spoke less to Russian public sentiment and more to the ability of an autocrat, facing no meaningful opposition, to stage-manage a show of support for his war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In Europe, far-right parties are expected to perform well in European Parliament elections, which began on Thursday. Analysts said they did not believe this would jeopardize the political center that has governed Europe in the post-World War II era. And Poland provided a source of reassurance last November, when voters pushed out its nationalist Law and Justice Party in favor of a more liberal opposition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, the success of far-right figures like Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister of Italy, attests to the enduring appeal of populism.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cPopulists and right-wingers will continue to make gains and strike fear into the European political establishment,\u201d the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said in its analysis of the top risks of 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Britain\u2019s general election was shaken up on Monday when Nigel Farage, a populist politician, pro-Brexit campaigner and ally of former President Donald J. Trump, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/03\/world\/europe\/nigel-farage-uk-parliament.html\" title=\"\">announced<\/a> he would run for a seat in Parliament under the banner of his Reform U.K. party, which has a strident anti-immigration message.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That will add to the headache for the Conservative Party, which has lagged the opposition Labour Party by double digits in polls for nearly 18 months. Reform, which is fielding candidates across the country, could siphon off Conservative votes among those who blame the party for a weak economy and rising immigration numbers since Britain left the European Union in 2020.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some critics argue that the Conservative Party\u2019s problems stem from its free-market policies, which they say have disillusioned voters in disadvantaged parts of Britain and set it apart from right-wing parties in Europe or Mr. Trump\u2019s Make America Great Again movement in the United States.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">More fundamentally, though, the Conservatives have been in power for 14 years, and they face the same pent-up dissatisfaction with the status quo that fueled the recent elections in India, South Africa and Turkey.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In some countries, the urge to break with the past has led voters to make unorthodox choices: Javier Milei, a flamboyant libertarian economist, swept to power in Argentina last November with a promise to close its central bank and wage an all-out assault on what he described as a corrupt political \u201ccaste.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some analysts argue that similarly disruptive forces are driving the presidential race in the United States, where a comparatively healthy economy and the advantages of incumbency have not spared President Biden, who faces a neck-and-neck challenge from Mr. Trump even after the former president was <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/05\/30\/nyregion\/trump-trial-verdict\" title=\"\">convicted of multiple felonies<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s not about left versus right, it\u2019s about the status quo versus change,\u201d said Frank Luntz, an American political strategist who has lived and worked in Britain. \u201cYou can\u2019t buy a house in the U.K., the N.H.S. doesn\u2019t work,\u201d he said, referring to the National Health Service. \u201cIn the United States, you can\u2019t afford housing or health care. It\u2019s about broken promises, year after year after year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That sense of betrayal is even more acute in countries like South Africa, where the African National Congress, or A.N.C., has governed since the start of democracy there in 1994, piling up majorities even as the economy and social infrastructure crumbled. Last week, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/01\/world\/africa\/south-africa-election-results.html\" title=\"\">voters finally rebelled<\/a>, driving down the A.N.C.\u2019s vote share to 40 percent, from 58 percent in the last national election in 2019.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Among their biggest complaints is the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/11\/11\/world\/africa\/job-search-unemployment-south-africa.html\" title=\"\">lack of job opportunities<\/a>: South Africa\u2019s unemployment rate \u2014 at 42 percent, including those who have stopped looking for work \u2014 is one of the highest in the world. Stagnation has widened the country\u2019s already profound inequality.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">South Africans flock to cities looking for work. But many end up in decrepit buildings and slapdash shack communities, often without running water or sanitary toilets. Regular power outages leave streets dark and residents of many communities vulnerable to crime. South Africa\u2019s murder rate is six and a half times as high as that of the United States and 45 times as high as Germany\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/03\/world\/africa\/south-africa-jacob-zuma.html\" title=\"\">Jacob Zuma<\/a>, the scandal-scarred former president, has benefited from this misery, helping start a new party, umKhonto weSizwe, or M.K., which won nearly 15 percent of the vote, mostly at the expense of his former party, the A.N.C.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Zuma attracts a feverish following among disillusioned A.N.C. supporters, who accuse the party of selling out to wealthy white businesspeople and not moving aggressively enough to redistribute wealth to the Black majority after apartheid.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">India\u2019s election was a comparable anti-incumbent revolt, even if Mr. Modi\u2019s B.J.P. is still the largest party in Parliament by a wide margin. The party\u2019s campaign spending was at least 20 times as much as that of its main opposition, the Congress Party, which had its bank accounts frozen by the government in a tax dispute on the eve of the election. The country\u2019s news outlets have been largely bought off or bullied into silence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And yet, the results showed Mr. Modi, 73, losing his majority for the first time since he took office in 2014. Analysts said that reflected widespread dissatisfaction with how the fruits of India\u2019s economy have been shared. While India\u2019s steady growth has made it the envy of its neighbors \u2014 and created a conspicuous billionaire class \u2014 those riches have not flowed to the hundreds of millions of India\u2019s poor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The government has handed out free rations of wheat, grain and cooking gas. It offers home water connections, subsidizes building supplies and gives farmers cash. But it has not tackled India\u2019s inflation or unemployment, leaving hundreds of millions of people, especially women, chronically out of work.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">There is also some evidence that Mr. Modi\u2019s appeals to Hindu nationalism were not as potent as in previous elections. The B.J.P.\u2019s candidate did not even win the constituency that is home to the lavish Ram temple, built on grounds disputed by Hindus and Muslims. Mr. Modi inaugurated the temple just before the campaign started, hoping it would galvanize his Hindu political base.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The economy figured into Mexico\u2019s election as well, but in a very different way. While overall growth was disappointing \u2014 averaging only 1 percent a year during Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s term \u2014 the government doubled the minimum wage and strengthened the peso, lifting millions of Mexicans out of poverty.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cPeople vote with their wallets, and it\u2019s very obvious there\u2019s more money in the wallets of almost everybody in Mexico,\u201d said Diego Caste\u00f1eda Garza, a Mexican economist and historian at Uppsala University in Sweden.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, analysts said, there was also a desire among voters to cement the change that Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador, a charismatic outsider, symbolized when he came to power in 2018. Even as Ms. Sheinbaum, 61, vowed to continue her mentor\u2019s policies, she cast herself \u2014 Mexico\u2019s first female and Jewish president \u2014 as a change agent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For Jacqueline Gonz\u00e1lez, 33, who works at a cargo transportation company and viewed Mexico\u2019s previous governments as corrupt, that made voting for Ms. Sheinbaum an easy decision.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWith Obrador we have already seen, although some people don\u2019t want to admit it, some change,\u201d Ms. Gonz\u00e1lez said. \u201cLet\u2019s hope it continues with Sheinbaum.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Reporting was contributed by <!-- -->John Eligon<!-- --> from Johannesburg, <!-- -->Alex Travelli<!-- --> from New Delhi and <!-- -->Emiliano Rodr\u00edguez Mega<!-- --> from Mexico City.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/06\/world\/global-elections-india-turkey-democracy.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In India, a powerful leader wins another term but sees his party\u2019s majority vanish. In South Africa, the governing party is humbled by voters for the first time since the end of apartheid. In Britain, a populist insurgent barges into an election that is shaping up to be a crushing defeat for the long-ruling Conservatives. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66750,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/06\/multimedia\/06global-elections-qvpl\/06global-elections-qvpl-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[67,377,62909,62908],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66749"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66749"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66751,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66749\/revisions\/66751"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66750"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}