{"id":72983,"date":"2024-06-14T12:56:19","date_gmt":"2024-06-14T12:56:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/14\/what-next-for-sunak-and-starmer-as-poll-race-enters-second-half\/"},"modified":"2024-06-14T12:56:19","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T12:56:19","slug":"what-next-for-sunak-and-starmer-as-poll-race-enters-second-half","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/14\/what-next-for-sunak-and-starmer-as-poll-race-enters-second-half\/","title":{"rendered":"What next for Sunak and Starmer as poll race enters second half?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"What<\/div>


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By\u00a0Chris Mason,\u00a0<\/span>Political editor<\/span>\u00a0\u2022\u00a0<\/span>Henry Zeffman,\u00a0<\/span>Chief political correspondent<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\"BBCBBC<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n
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The moods of the two main parties\u2019 general election campaigns do not tell us what will happen on 4 July. <\/p>\n

But as we pass the halfway stage in the long slog to polling day, they do give us a strong flavour of how candidates, strategists and officials think this election is going for them.<\/p>\n

And right now, the moods of the Conservative and Labour campaigns could not be more different.<\/p>\n

Even the most fatalistic Labourites, for so long determined to avoid complacency, are beginning to admit that they believe government is within their grasp.<\/p>\n

Even the most loyal Sunakites, convinced for so long that during an election campaign voters would see the qualities that they see in their prime minister, are beginning to concede that the long-predicted narrowing of the gap between the two parties simply isn\u2019t happening – at least not yet.<\/p>\n

\u201cUtterly dire\u201d was the stark response from one prominent Conservative to the campaign so far, \u201cthere\u2019s no clear messaging or strategy.\u201d <\/p>\n

They decried \u201cthe Kool-Aiders\u201d working for Rishi Sunak who, they said, were not realistic about his strengths and weaknesses before thrusting him to the centre of what has so far been a presidential-style campaign.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Election<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Soft Labour vote?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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Some Conservative candidates argue that the election result will be closer than many expect. <\/p>\n

But privately few even half-heartedly mount an argument that the overall outcome is up for grabs anymore. <\/p>\n

One candidate said that the prevailing pessimism in the party had sparked a vicious cycle. <\/p>\n

\u201cPeople just stop campaigning,\u201d they said. <\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of colleagues haven\u2019t really worked their seats before. When morale is down you can\u2019t really do anything.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another influential Conservative made a similar argument. <\/p>\n

At the grassroots level, they said: \u201cIt\u2019s quite a low-motivation, low-energy campaign. Volunteers are down, lots of Tory MPs who think they are going to lose their seats aren\u2019t really bothering. And that makes it quite difficult inside the campaign to know what\u2019s really going on.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some Conservatives insist, though, the true picture of national support is nowhere near as dire as some models projecting a near-wipeout would suggest. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe Labour vote is softer than people think,\u201d one source said. <\/p>\n

\u201cIn parts of England the solid Labour vote – people who say they\u2019re definitely voting Labour – is no different to 2019. <\/p>\n

“What is different is there\u2019s many, many, many more undecideds who were Conservatives. The problem is how do you get those people to come out when apathy is pretty high?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Farage’s poll glee<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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The new message piloted by Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, warning of the consequences of a vast Labour majority, may have been targeted at finding ways to give those persistent undecideds a reason to vote Conservative.<\/p>\n

It was arguably the biggest moment of this third week of the campaign and a strategy from a campaign that feels like it has run out of better ideas.<\/p>\n

Nigel Farage\u2019s decision to become leader of Reform UK and run for a seat himself was one of the biggest moments of the campaign so far.<\/p>\n

The Conservative Party\u2019s worst nightmare came true.<\/p>\n

On Thursday evening, minutes before ITV’s latest election debate started, a YouGov poll appeared<\/a> putting Reform UK one percentage point ahead of the Conservatives for the first time.<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, Mr Farage seized on this with glee, telling the ITV audience: \u201cWe are now the opposition to Labour.”<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the inflexion point. The only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote,\u201d he added in an online video.<\/p>\n

It is only one poll, and 1% is within the margin of error. Let\u2019s see what others suggest in the coming days.<\/p>\n

But psychologically it is the last thing the Conservatives need.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"ITV\/PAITV\/PA<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Nigel Farage makes the most of Reform’s poll bounce<\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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In Labour, meanwhile, there is a tangible buoyancy. <\/p>\n

Campaign insiders say that the first three weeks have gone smoothly, but insist that this is not the product of springing into action after Mr Sunak\u2019s sudden decision to go to the polls. <\/p>\n

\u201cThings are going well because of how carefully crafted things have been for a long time,\u201d one campaign source said. <\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s a step change in standards, in professionalism. It\u2019s the cultural change that Keir has brought. Everything is done properly.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Labour campaign has not been without its wobbles. <\/p>\n

The saga over whether Diane Abbott would be a Labour candidate disrupted the party\u2019s news “grid” and there was frustration at the top of the party at Sir Keir Starmer\u2019s failure to immediately rebut Mr Sunak\u2019s tax attack in the first televised debate last week. <\/p>\n

\u201cIn some ways that was good for us because it reminded people that not everything will go to plan,\u201d a senior official said.<\/p>\n

To some on the left of the Labour Party – as signified by a protester early on in Sir Keir\u2019s speech at the manifesto launch – the absence of radical new policies in the manifesto risks depressing turnout among leftwingers. <\/p>\n

Sir Keir embraced that critique in his speech, saying the stability in his programme was evidence of the stability he would bring to government.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why Labour chose to launch their manifesto at the same venue in Manchester where Sir Keir unveiled his \u201cfive missions\u201d for government in February 2023, with messaging substantially the same as today\u2019s.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Labour prepares for power<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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\"ReutersReuters <\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The Euros will take attention away from the election <\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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So what next for the Labour campaign? <\/p>\n

The party is proud of its so-called “ground war” \u2013 the pavement pounding, door knocking and leafleting that goes on away from the cameras. <\/p>\n

Privately, the party reckons its operation and data gathering is far superior to the Conservatives\u2019.<\/p>\n

As for the “air war” \u2013 what you will see in media coverage \u2013 it will be the same kinds of events and certainly the same message. <\/p>\n

But Sir Keir\u2019s visits will be taking place over the coming days in constituencies with larger Conservative majorities than those he has visited so far, the BBC understands – a clear display of confidence. <\/p>\n

Activists, too, are being encouraged to focus their energies on more and more ambitious target seats.<\/p>\n

One curious twist coming in the next few weeks, not lost on senior Labour people, is the start of the Euros, the football tournament. <\/p>\n

This will command attention and passion, disrupt television schedules and distract people at just the point the election campaign reaches its crescendo. <\/p>\n

How to campaign, in an inevitably partisan manner, as people, particularly in England and Scotland come together to watch the football, poses a challenge.<\/p>\n

Some at the top of the Labour Party are beginning to think, if a little furtively, of the aftermath of 4 July, too. <\/p>\n

Senior staff still do not know for sure what jobs they would have in Downing Street if Labour win but Sue Gray, Sir Keir\u2019s chief of staff, has spent most of the campaign at party headquarters preparing detailed plans for government. <\/p>\n

Some shadow ministers have taken time off the campaign trail to hold “access talks” with civil servants in Whitehall.<\/p>\n

There are logistical questions about a Labour government, too. <\/p>\n

For example: would they let MPs take their traditional six-week summer recess? <\/p>\n

While plans are not yet developed on this, the answer appears to be a resounding no.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe can\u2019t pass up the opportunity to hit the ground running,\u201d one Labour source said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n


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46 minutes ago By\u00a0Chris Mason,\u00a0Political editor\u00a0\u2022\u00a0Henry Zeffman,\u00a0Chief political correspondent BBC The moods of the two main parties\u2019 general election campaigns do not tell us what will happen on 4 July. But as we pass the halfway stage in the long slog to polling day, they do give us a strong flavour of how candidates, strategists […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":72984,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/bbcx\/grey-placeholder.png","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[603],"tags":[7531,2775,1593,3960,1031],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72983"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72983"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72983\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":72985,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72983\/revisions\/72985"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}