{"id":81404,"date":"2024-06-26T06:04:03","date_gmt":"2024-06-26T06:04:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/26\/how-venezuelas-leader-could-stay-in-power-no-matter-what-voters-want\/"},"modified":"2024-06-26T06:04:03","modified_gmt":"2024-06-26T06:04:03","slug":"how-venezuelas-leader-could-stay-in-power-no-matter-what-voters-want","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/26\/how-venezuelas-leader-could-stay-in-power-no-matter-what-voters-want\/","title":{"rendered":"How Venezuela\u2019s Leader Could Stay in Power, No Matter What Voters Want"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/24\/multimedia\/24venezuela-maduro-top-cpfh\/24venezuela-maduro-top-cpfh-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"How Venezuela\u2019s Leader Could Stay in Power, No Matter What Voters Want\" title=\"How Venezuela\u2019s Leader Could Stay in Power, No Matter What Voters Want\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Venezuela\u2019s authoritarian president, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, faces a watershed moment that will determine the fate of his rule and the course of his troubled country.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On July 28, the leader of the nation that holds the world\u2019s largest oil reserves \u2014 and yet has seen millions of residents flee amid a crushing economic crisis \u2014 will confront his toughest electoral challenge since taking office in 2013.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Meganalisis\/status\/1795292036888997957\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Polls<\/a> show that his main opponent, a low-key former diplomat named <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/06\/world\/americas\/edmundo-gonzalez-venezuela-elections.html\" title=\"\">Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez,<\/a> is far ahead.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez is backed by a fiery opposition leader, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/26\/world\/americas\/venezuela-presidential-election-opposition.html\" title=\"\">Mar\u00eda Corina Machado<\/a>, who has captivated voters as she crisscrosses the country, campaigning for him on a promise to re-establish democracy and reunite families separated by migration.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On the other side is Mr. Maduro, a skilled political operator who for years has overcome his unpopularity by <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/05\/20\/world\/americas\/venezuela-election.html\" title=\"\">tilting the ballot box<\/a> in his favor. He could use the same tactics to eke out another victory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet, there is a wild card: He could also lose, negotiate a peaceful exit and hand over power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Few Venezuelans expect him to do that. Instead, political analysts, election experts, opposition figures and four former senior officials in Mr. Maduro\u2019s government interviewed by The New York Times believe, based on his past record, that he is probably mulling multiple options to retain power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro\u2019s government could disqualify Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez, or the parties he represents, they say, removing his only serious challenger from the race.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro could allow the vote to go forward, but draw on years of experience of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/11\/23\/world\/americas\/venezuela-election-maduro.html\" title=\"\">manipulating elections in his favor<\/a> to suppress participation, confuse voters and ultimately win.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But he could also cancel or postpone the vote, inventing a crisis \u2014 a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/12\/21\/world\/americas\/venezuela-guyana.html\" title=\"\">simmering border dispute<\/a> with neighboring Guyana is one option \u2014 as an excuse.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Finally, Mr. Maduro could simply fix the vote tally, analysts and political figures say.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That happened in 2017, when the country held a vote to select a new political body to rewrite the Constitution. The company that provided voting technology, Smartmatic, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smartmatic.com\/media\/smartmatic-statement-on-the-recent-constituent-assembly-election-in-venezuela\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">concluded<\/a> that the result had \u201c<a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/08\/02\/world\/americas\/venezuela-election-turnout.html\" title=\"\">without any doubt<\/a>\u201d been manipulated \u2014 and that Mr. Maduro\u2019s government reported at least a million more votes than had actually been cast. (Smartmatic cut ties with the country.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Zair Mundaray, a former prosecutor in the Maduro government who defected in 2017, said the country had arrived at a critical moment. Even Mr. Maduro\u2019s followers, he added, \u201care clear that he is in the minority.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Whatever Mr. Maduro does, the election will be closely watched by the U.S. government, which has long sought to push him from power, saying it wants to promote democracy in the region, but also looking for a friendly partner in the oil business.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In recent months, the Biden administration\u2019s desire to improve economic conditions inside Venezuela has intensified, as hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/07\/world\/americas\/venezuelan-migrants-us-border.html\" title=\"\">headed north<\/a>, creating an enormous political challenge for President Biden ahead of his own re-election bid.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro has made it clear he has no intention of losing the election, accusing his opponents of plotting a \u201ccoup\u201d against him and telling a crowd of followers <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=PVhXUGI_MPA\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">at a campaign event<\/a> that \u201cwe are going to win by a knockout!\u201d When that happens, he said, his opponents will surely call it fraud.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Representatives of the country\u2019s communications ministry and election council did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro, 61, rose to power following the death of Hugo Ch\u00e1vez, the charismatic founder of Venezuela\u2019s socialist project.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A former vice president, he was handpicked by Mr. Ch\u00e1vez in 2013 as his successor. But many Venezuelans predicted that he would fail, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/venezuela\/maduro-survivor-long-game?check_logged_in=1&amp;utm_medium=promo_email&amp;utm_source=lo_flows&amp;utm_campaign=article_link&amp;utm_term=article_email&amp;utm_content=20240619\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">saying<\/a> he lacked his predecessor\u2019s oratorical skills, political savvy, military ties and public loyalty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">They were wrong.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro has survived a prolonged economic crisis in which year-over-year inflation soared <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Countries\/VEN\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">as high as 65,000 percent<\/a>; several rounds of nationwide protests; a number of coup and assassination attempts; and an effort in 2019 by a young legislator named Juan Guaid\u00f3 to install a parallel government inside the country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He has managed to prevent challenges from within the ranks of his own inner circle. And he has navigated punishing U.S. sanctions by strengthening commercial ties with Iran, Russia and China, and, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.crisisgroup.org\/latin-america-caribbean\/andes\/venezuela\/073-gold-and-grief-venezuelas-violent-south\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">according to International Crisis Group,<\/a> by allowing generals and other allies to enrich themselves through drug trafficking and illegal mining.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Despite his dire poll numbers, \u201che has never been stronger,\u201d Michael Shifter, a longtime Latin America expert, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/venezuela\/maduro-survivor-long-game?check_logged_in=1&amp;utm_medium=promo_email&amp;utm_source=lo_flows&amp;utm_campaign=article_link&amp;utm_term=article_email&amp;utm_content=20240619\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">wrote<\/a> in Foreign Affairs magazine last year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But the election, held every six years, has emerged as perhaps his biggest challenge.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Already, the government is trying to massage the vote in the president\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The millions of Venezuelans who have fled to other countries \u2014 many of whom would probably cast ballots against him \u2014 have faced enormous barriers to register to vote. Venezuelan officials abroad, for example, have refused to accept certain common visas as proof of the emigrants\u2019 residency, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/alertavenezuela.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/BARERAS-AL-REGISTRO-ELECTORAL-EN-EL-EXTERIOR.pdf\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">according to<\/a> a coalition of watchdog groups.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Election experts and opposition activists say that 3.5 million to 5.5 million Venezuelans eligible to vote now live outside the country \u2014 up to a quarter of the total electorate of 21 million people. But just 69,000 Venezuelans abroad have been able to register to vote.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The watchdog groups say denying such a large number of citizens the right to cast a ballot constitutes extensive electoral fraud.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Efforts to undermine the vote are also unfolding inside the country.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The education ministry said in April that it was changing the names of more than <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/efectococuyo.com\/politica\/cambio-a-nombres-de-colegios-genera-confusion-en-algunos-mirandinos-rumbo-al-28-de-julio\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">6,000 schools<\/a>, which are common voting sites, possibly complicating efforts by voters to find their assigned polling places.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Among the lesser known parties on an already complicated ballot \u2014 voters will choose among 38 boxes featuring candidates\u2019 faces \u2014 is one that uses an almost identical name, and similar colors, to the larger opposition coalition backing Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez, potentially diluting his vote.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Perhaps Mr. Maduro\u2019s biggest electoral machination was to use his control of the courts to bar the country\u2019s most popular opposition figure, Ms. Machado, from running in the first place. But she has still mobilized her popularity to take to the campaign trail with Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro\u2019s government, according to the opposition, has targeted the campaign \u2014 37 opposition activists have been detained or gone into hiding to avoid detention since January, according to Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Independent electoral monitoring will be minimal. After the government <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/28\/world\/americas\/venezuela-election-maduro.html\" title=\"\">rescinded an offer from the European Union<\/a> to observe the election, just one major independent organization will monitor the vote, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cartercenter.org\/news\/pr\/2024\/venezuela-062124.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">the Carter Center<\/a>, based in Atlanta.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Luis Lander, director of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, an independent group, said in an interview that the election already qualified as among the most flawed in the country in the last 25 years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Maduro has raised salaries for public workers, announced new infrastructure projects and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/features\/2024-venezuela-elections-maduro-rebrand\/?sref=0w5HLLb3\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">ramped up<\/a> his social media presence. The economy has improved slightly. The president has also been on the campaign trail, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/presidencialven\/status\/1797460393868300687?s=12\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">dancing<\/a> with voters across the country, portraying himself as the goofy grandfather of socialism and mocking those who doubted him.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">His persistent argument is that U.S. sanctions are at the heart of Venezuela\u2019s economic problems. The country\u2019s socialist movement, despite the economic travails, still runs deep.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">During its best years, it lifted millions out of poverty, and it has a powerful messaging arm, with many who will vote for the socialist cause, even if they find fault with Mr. Maduro.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThis is not about a man, but about a project,\u201d Giovanny Erazo, 42, said at a recent get-out-the-vote event.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Others may cast their ballot for Mr. Maduro believing it will bring aid to their families. Loyalists have <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/05\/18\/world\/americas\/venezuela-election-president-maduro-food.html\" title=\"\">long been awarded<\/a> with boxes of food.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Even if Mr. Maduro sabotaged the vote, it is unclear that it would lead to the kind of unrest that could push him from office.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">At least 270 people have been killed in protests since 2013, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/provea.org\/actualidad\/https-www-derechos-org-ve-actualidad-asesinato-de-27-personas-en-protestas-2019-eleva-a-242-el-total-de-fallecidos-en-manifestaciones-durante-la-era-maduro\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">according to<\/a> the human rights organization Provea, leaving many fearful of taking to the streets. Many frustrated with Mr. Maduro have already voted with their feet by fleeing the country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Should Mr. Maduro fall short on July 28, he could work with Mr. Gonz\u00e1lez to negotiate a favorable departure, some analysts said. The president is wanted in the United States on drug trafficking charges and is under investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. He would want to go to a country where he would be shielded from prosecution.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Manuel Christopher Figuera, a former director of Venezuela\u2019s national intelligence service, said this scenario was unlikely. \u201cMaduro knows that if he hands over power, although he could negotiate his exit, the rest of this criminal band could not.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Figuera fled to the United States in 2019, after joining a failed coup launched by a faction of the party of Mr. Guaid\u00f3, the legislator who led a parallel government.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Luisa Ortega, who served as the country\u2019s attorney general under both Mr. Ch\u00e1vez and Mr. Maduro \u2014 but fled in 2017 after criticizing the government \u2014 warned against a \u201cfatal triumphalism\u201d among people in the opposition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cAn avalanche of votes against Maduro\u201d could defeat him at the polls, she said. \u201cAnd that won\u2019t necessarily translate into a victory for us.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Isayen Herrera<!-- --> and Mar\u00eda Victoria Ferm\u00edn contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela, and <!-- -->Genevieve Glatsky<!-- --> from Bogot\u00e1, Colombia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/25\/world\/americas\/venezuela-election-maduro-power.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Venezuela\u2019s authoritarian president, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, faces a watershed moment that will determine the fate of his rule and the course of his troubled country. On July 28, the leader of the nation that holds the world\u2019s largest oil reserves \u2014 and yet has seen millions of residents flee amid a crushing economic crisis \u2014 will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81405,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/24\/multimedia\/24venezuela-maduro-top-cpfh\/24venezuela-maduro-top-cpfh-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1891,6776,2974,125,15506,3456],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81404"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81404"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81404\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":81406,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81404\/revisions\/81406"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81405"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}