{"id":82824,"date":"2024-06-27T21:16:12","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T21:16:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/27\/friday-briefing-what-to-watch-in-the-french-election\/"},"modified":"2024-06-27T21:16:12","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T21:16:12","slug":"friday-briefing-what-to-watch-in-the-french-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/27\/friday-briefing-what-to-watch-in-the-french-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Briefing: What to Watch in the French Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/28\/multimedia\/28ambriefing-asia-nl-Macron-bwpk\/28ambriefing-asia-nl-Macron-bwpk-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Friday Briefing: What to Watch in the French Election\" title=\"Friday Briefing: What to Watch in the French Election\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-3398dd66\">As Macron rolls the dice, France holds its breath<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, shocked his nation when he dissolved Parliament and called for a snap election after his party was trounced by the far right during European elections. On Sunday, voters head to the polls for the first round of voting as French politics reels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For insight, my colleague Daniel Slotnik spoke with Roger Cohen, The Times\u2019s Paris bureau chief.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">What\u2019s at stake?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">Roger:<\/strong> Well, President Macron has taken a huge gamble. The immediate possibility is that the far-right National Rally could win a majority, or even an absolute majority, in the national Parliament. That would represent the end of a postwar absolute taboo in France against the far right attaining the highest offices of government.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">Why would Macron call this vote after he was beaten soundly in the E.U. parliamentary elections?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some think he may be calculating that if the National Rally enters government now, the party will be discredited by the 2027 presidential elections, because it\u2019s much more difficult to govern than to rail from outside the gates of power.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">Do you think it\u2019s a sound strategy?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">No. I think, first of all, it\u2019s unnecessary. Second of all, it\u2019s extremely high-risk. Third of all, the Olympics are about to start in less than three weeks, and all eyes will be on France. Fourth, it raises the possibility, if the far right does win, of violence in the streets, of protest, of chaos. So the fifth question is, is the president really ready for France to present an image of chaos when the Olympics begin?<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Now, none of that may happen. But was it wise? Was it prudent? Was it rational? I don\u2019t really think it was.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">What do the French people think about this?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The general atmosphere here is one of consternation, bewilderment and tension, now mostly beneath the surface, with fears of violent demonstrations if the far right wins big.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">What do you think is likely to happen?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">I think the most likely outcome is a National Rally victory \u2014 with maybe a 20 percent chance that they win an absolute majority. But more likely they\u2019ll just be by far the biggest party. Macron then faces a Parliament dominated by the National Rally, with a large far-left presence, and with his party and his relative power in Parliament much reduced.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">For more on the French elections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr class=\"css-7ad88g e1mu4ftr0\"\/><\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-72656fbb\">Biden and Trump\u2019s first face-off of 2024<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">President Biden and Donald Trump will meet onstage for the first debate of the 2024 election. It starts at 9 p.m. Eastern (That\u2019s 9 a.m. in Hong Kong, 11 a.m. in Sydney). This could be the most important moment of the campaign. Follow <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/06\/27\/us\/biden-trump-debate\/a-june-presidential-debate-is-early-by-modern-standards-heres-what-to-know?smid=url-share\" title=\"\">our live updates<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Biden will seek to prioritize abortion and the future of democracy. His team wants to nudge voters away from seeing 2024 as a vote on Biden\u2019s leadership, and toward the idea that a second Trump term would be more radical and vengeful than the first.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Trump is keen to attack Biden\u2019s record and his age (Biden is 81 and Trump is 78). Expect Trump to focus on immigration and inflation. Currently, he <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/26\/us\/politics\/trump-poll-hush-money-conviction.html\" title=\"\">leads Biden<\/a> by three percentage points, according to a Times\/Siena College poll.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"css-7ad88g e1mu4ftr0\"\/><\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-6ec286d9\">Iran holds a presidential election<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Iran is holding a special election today to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed last month. Voters are showing <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/27\/world\/middleeast\/iran-presidential-election.html\" title=\"\">little enthusiasm<\/a> for any of the six candidates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In the past, some Iranians boycotted elections to express frustration with the government. Even people who said they would vote in this election had little faith that their lives would change for the better.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe have been going backward and we are crying inside,\u201d a 53-year-old engineer said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">Arms:<\/strong> For the first time, some of Iran\u2019s ruling elite have dropped their insistence that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and are <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/27\/us\/politics\/iran-president-nuclear-bomb.html\" title=\"\">talking openly about building the bomb.<\/a><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"css-1uuxri4 e1gnsphs0\" id=\"link-55bd377a\"><span><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">MORE TOP NEWS<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As the planet warmed, atoll nations like the Maldives were expected to vanish beneath the rising waves. But my colleague Raymond Zhong reports that scientists have begun to see something shocking: <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/06\/26\/climate\/maldives-islands-climate-change.html\" title=\"\">Some of these islands are growing.<\/a><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"css-1uuxri4 e1gnsphs0\" id=\"link-286d948a\"><span><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">CONVERSATION STARTERS<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<h3 class=\"css-1uuxri4 e1gnsphs0\" id=\"link-6d8bb70f\"><span><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">A NOTE TO OUR READERS<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-715cb4de\">Stepping away and saying goodbye<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Today is my last day writing the Asia Pacific morning briefing. On Monday, I will join our International desk to cover breaking news from London.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Writing this newsletter has been a great honor and a delightful challenge. I have learned so much from my colleagues and from you, our loyal readers. I\u2019m grateful for your insightful, evocative emails. Thank you all for giving us a few minutes of your day, and thank you for engaging with our work. I know you will be in good hands moving forward.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Please reach out with any suggestions, story ideas or even London recommendations. My email is <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/27\/world\/asia\/mailto:amelia.nierenberg@nytimes.com\" title=\"\">amelia.nierenberg@nytimes.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Thank you for your trust, and your readership.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"css-1uuxri4 e1gnsphs0\" id=\"link-705d9918\"><span><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">RECOMMENDATIONS<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<hr class=\"css-7ad88g e1mu4ftr0\"\/>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Daniel E. Slotnik<!-- --> contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\"><em class=\"css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0\">That\u2019s it for today. Have a lovely weekend and a lovely rest of your year! \u2014 Amelia<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><em class=\"css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0\">You can reach our team at <\/em><a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/27\/world\/asia\/mailto:briefing@nytimes.com?subject=Briefing%20Feedback\" title=\"\"><em class=\"css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0\">briefing@nytimes.com<\/em><\/a><em class=\"css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0\">.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/27\/world\/asia\/france-iran-us-debate-election-asia.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As Macron rolls the dice, France holds its breath Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, shocked his nation when he dissolved Parliament and called for a snap election after his party was trounced by the far right during European elections. On Sunday, voters head to the polls for the first round of voting as French [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82825,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/28\/multimedia\/28ambriefing-asia-nl-Macron-bwpk\/28ambriefing-asia-nl-Macron-bwpk-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[235,50,8456,10057,1579],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82824"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82824"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82824\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82826,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82824\/revisions\/82826"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82825"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}