{"id":84396,"date":"2024-06-30T08:41:16","date_gmt":"2024-06-30T08:41:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/30\/four-takeaways-from-irans-presidential-election\/"},"modified":"2024-06-30T08:41:16","modified_gmt":"2024-06-30T08:41:16","slug":"four-takeaways-from-irans-presidential-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/30\/four-takeaways-from-irans-presidential-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Four Takeaways From Iran\u2019s Presidential Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/30\/multimedia\/30iran-takeaways-top-tjgz\/30iran-takeaways-top-tjgz-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Four Takeaways From Iran\u2019s Presidential Election\" title=\"Four Takeaways From Iran\u2019s Presidential Election\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Iranian voters signaled their disenchantment with Iran\u2019s system of clerical rule in the country\u2019s presidential election on Friday, going to the polls in record-low numbers to help two establishment candidates limp to a runoff.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The runoff on July 5 will offer voters a final choice between a reformist former health minister, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, and an ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, neither of whom managed to get more than the 50 percent of votes needed to win the presidency. That postpones for another week the question of who will steer Iran through challenges including a sickly economy, the gulf between rulers and ruled and a nearby war that keeps threatening to drag Iran further in.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But despite belonging to two different camps, neither man is expected to bring major change to Iran, given that they must govern with the ultimate approval of Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Here are the most important takeaways emerging from Friday\u2019s election.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-6ccdb67d\">Iranians continue to reject the system.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Only 40 percent of eligible Iranians voted on Friday, according to government figures, a historically low turnout for an Iranian presidential race \u2014 even lower than the 41 percent level reported for Iran\u2019s parliamentary elections this year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Though Iranian elections once drew enthusiastic crowds, more and more people have stayed home in recent years as a form of protest against the ruling establishment, which they blame for wrecking the economy, snuffing out social and political freedoms and isolating Iran from the world.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In the 2013 presidential election, large numbers of urban, middle-class Iranians eager for prosperity and a more open society put their faith in a reformist candidate, Hassan Rouhani. They hoped he would loosen social and political restrictions and strike an agreement that would lift punishing Western sanctions in exchange for restricting their country\u2019s nuclear activities.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Rouhani made that deal only for President Donald J. Trump to unilaterally withdraw from it and reimpose sanctions in 2018, sending Iran\u2019s economy \u2014 which analysts say has also suffered from Iranian leaders\u2019 mismanagement and corruption \u2014 back into a tailspin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And social freedoms that Iranians carved out under Mr. Rouhani\u2019s presidency as enforcers looked the other way \u2014 including a loosened dress code that allowed growing numbers of Iranian women to let their mandatory head scarves fall to their shoulders \u2014 evaporated after the 2021 election of Mr. Rouhani\u2019s successor, Ebrahim Raisi, a hard-liner who died in a helicopter crash last month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Seeing that voting for reformists could not secure lasting change, Iranians turned away from the polls and against the system. Their anger hit a new peak in 2022, when months of countrywide antigovernment protests <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/26\/world\/middleeast\/iran-protests-40-days.html\" title=\"\">erupted<\/a> after a young woman, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/09\/16\/world\/middleeast\/iran-death-woman-protests.html\" title=\"\">Mahsa Amini<\/a>, died after being taken into police custody. With enforcement of the law requiring modest dress on the rise under Mr. Raisi, she had been detained for wearing her head scarf improperly.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-7142af78\">What could happen in the runoff?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Voters remain skeptical that any candidate can bring true change, even one who has been as openly critical of the government as Dr. Pezeshkian, the reformist candidate. So, despite many voters\u2019 disillusionment with the current, conservative-dominated government, it is far from a sure thing that they will turn out to back Dr. Pezeshkian during the runoff.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One reason Dr. Pezeshkian made it to the runoff, despite being the only reformist in a crowded field, was that the two other main candidates were both hard-liners who split the conservative vote. Mr. Jalili, the more ideologically rigid of the twos, is not guaranteed to pick up his former conservative rival\u2019s voters, since earlier polls indicated that many of those were not interested in supporting Mr. Jalili.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, that may change after that rival, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, asked his followers on Saturday to vote for Mr. Jalili to ensure a conservative victory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Overall, the powerful ruling establishment, led by Mr. Khamenei, would seem to prefer that Mr. Jalili win. Mr. Khamenei is personally close to Mr. Jalili and shares his hard-line views, and he recently obliquely criticized Dr. Pezeshkian for hewing too close to the West. The fact that the clerical council that vets presidential candidates allowed five conservatives to run alongside a single reformist signaled that the supreme leader wanted a lieutenant who would embrace a similar agenda.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-21e31ff7\">Does it matter?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In Iran\u2019s system, the supreme leader makes all of the biggest decisions, especially when it comes to momentous issues like nuclear negotiations and foreign policy. But the president can set the tone, as Mr. Rouhani did with his pursuit of a nuclear deal with the West.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Whoever becomes president is likely to have a freer hand in managing matters like social restrictions \u2014 not only enforcement of the mandatory head scarf, which has become an continuing flashpoint between Iran\u2019s rulers and its population, but also touchy issues like whether female singers can perform onstage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He will also have some influence over the country\u2019s economic policy. Inflation has soared in recent years and the value of the Iranian currency has plunged, making life a grinding struggle for Iranians who have seen the value of their paychecks and savings melt away. Fresh fruit, vegetables and meat have all become tough for many to afford.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But efforts at resuscitating the economy may go only so far when Iran continues to suffer under American and European sanctions, which curb Iran\u2019s all-important oil sales as well as banking transactions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-68db2642\">What will it mean for the Middle East crisis and Iran\u2019s nuclear program?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Outside Iran, all eyes are on where the country\u2019s foreign and nuclear policy will go next.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Iran is a crucial player in the conflict that keeps threatening to spill over from Gaza, where Iran\u2019s longtime nemesis Israel is waging a bloody war to eradicate Hamas, into the wider Middle East. Iran has supported, funded and armed not only Hamas, but also Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia on Israel\u2019s northern border with which Israel has exchanged repeated and deadly strikes in recent months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Though that violence has not yet metastasized into war, in part because Iran does not want to be drawn into a wider conflict, Israel recently sharpened its tone, warning that it could turn its focus from Gaza to Lebanon. And Iran and Israel are no longer restricting their hostilities to battles by proxy or secret strikes: The two sides carried out open, if limited, strikes this year on each other\u2019s territory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It is also unclear what the election of a new president will mean for the West\u2019s yearslong effort to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear program. Six years after Mr. Trump withdrew the United States from the original nuclear deal, Iran is now closer than ever to being able to produce several nuclear weapons. And after decades of insisting that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, some of Iran\u2019s top leaders are publicly arguing that recent missile exchanges with Israel mean Iran should embrace building a bomb.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/30\/world\/middleeast\/iran-election-takeaways.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Iranian voters signaled their disenchantment with Iran\u2019s system of clerical rule in the country\u2019s presidential election on Friday, going to the polls in record-low numbers to help two establishment candidates limp to a runoff. The runoff on July 5 will offer voters a final choice between a reformist former health minister, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84397,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/06\/30\/multimedia\/30iran-takeaways-top-tjgz\/30iran-takeaways-top-tjgz-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[50,21116,212,5183],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84396"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84396"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84396\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84398,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84396\/revisions\/84398"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}