{"id":86319,"date":"2024-07-02T22:29:14","date_gmt":"2024-07-02T22:29:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/02\/why-this-years-climate-conditions-helped-hurricane-beryl-smash-records\/"},"modified":"2024-07-02T22:29:14","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T22:29:14","slug":"why-this-years-climate-conditions-helped-hurricane-beryl-smash-records","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/02\/why-this-years-climate-conditions-helped-hurricane-beryl-smash-records\/","title":{"rendered":"Why this year\u2019s climate conditions helped Hurricane Beryl smash records"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/070224_cg_beryl_inline1_desktop.png?resize=614%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Why this year\u2019s climate conditions helped Hurricane Beryl smash records\" title=\"Why this year\u2019s climate conditions helped Hurricane Beryl smash records\" \/><\/div> \r\n<br><div data-component=\"video-embed\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\n\n\n\n<p>Hurricane Beryl, the Atlantic Ocean\u2019s first hurricane in 2024, began roaring across the Caribbean in late June, wreaking devastation on Grenada and other Windward Islands as it grew in power. It\u2019s now swirling on like a buzzsaw toward Jamaica and Mexico\u2019s Yucat\u00e1n peninsula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beryl is a record-breaking storm, commanding attention in a year <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/article\/extreme-heat-climate-dangerous-health\">already filled with<\/a> record-breaking <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/article\/wildfires-pod-forest-ai\">climate events<\/a> <em>(SN: 6\/21\/24; SN: 4\/30\/24)<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On June 30, the storm became the earliest Atlantic hurricane on record to achieve Category 4 status. Just a day later, it had intensified further, becoming the earliest Atlantic storm on record to achieve Category 5 status, with sustained winds of about 270 kilometers per hour, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. 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unset);line-height:unset;margin:unset;padding:unset;border:unset;background:unset;&:hover, &:focus-visible {\n            border: unset;\n            background: unset;\n        }}.zephr-form-disabled-div{pointer-events:none;opacity:0.8}.zephr-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-form-input-inner-button{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:5px;padding:10px 5px}.zephr-form-input-inner-text{color:var(--zephr-color-text-main);font-size:var(--zf-subtext-fontSize);font-weight:bold;font-family:var(--zf-root-fontFamily)}\n]]><\/style>\n                        \n                        <style><![CDATA[.zephr-form-max-width.zephr-payment-form-max-width {\n    background-image: url(https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/themes\/sciencenews\/client\/src\/images\/cta-module@2x.jpg);\n    padding:20px;\n    max-width: 100%;\n}\n\n.zephr-form-custom-text > p {\n    display: none;\n}\n\nform.zephr-form-content {\n    opacity: .9;\n}\n\nlabel.zephr-form-checkbox-label {\n    font-size: 1.2rem;\n    font-weight: bolder;\n}\n\n.zephr-form-custom-text > h4 {\n    color: black !important;\n}\n\nbutton.zephr-form-button {\n    background: #d4441f !important;\n    font-weight: bold !important;\n    text-transform: uppercase !important;\n}\n\nlabel.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label {\n    color: white;\n    font-size: 1.6rem;\n}\n\n.zephr-form-content {\n    background:#2f537f;\n    \n}\n\n.zephr-payment-form-custom-text {\n    margin-top: .2rem;\n}\n\n.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label {\n    display: flex;\n    align-items: center;\n    font-family: var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont);\n    color: white;\n    font-weight: bold;\n}]]><\/style>\n                        \n                        \n<\/aside>\n\n\n<p>Fueling Beryl\u2019s fury are the superheated waters of the North Atlantic Ocean. Numerous teams of scientists have predicted that 2024\u2019s Atlantic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/article\/ocean-heat-records-2024-climate\">hurricane season would be \u201chyperactive\u201d as a result of that record-breaking ocean heat<\/a>, as well as the pending onset of the La Ni\u00f1a phase of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, climate pattern (<em>SN: 4\/29\/24<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Predicted or not, scientists are still agog at the stunning satellite images of Beryl, and the swiftness with which the storm gained power, says Brian McNoldy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami. <em>Science News<\/em> talked with McNoldy about hurricanes, ocean heat and what to expect for the rest of the Atlantic season. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SN<\/em>: I\u2019m looking at these satellite images, and this ocean temperature data, and I\u2019m stunned.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>McNoldy<\/strong>: Anybody who\u2019s been looking at this stuff is amazed. It\u2019s just off the charts, to be at the end of June-early July, and the ocean has more heat content than it would at the peak of the hurricane season! And we\u2019re far from the peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SN<\/em>: So let\u2019s talk ocean heat. We knew, even last year, that 2024 was likely to break records. What are we seeing now?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>McNoldy<\/strong>: This year, the whole tropical Atlantic has been warmer than average, both in terms of sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. In terms of ocean heat content \u2014 if we\u2019re just zooming in on the Caribbean, which is the relevant part for this hurricane \u2014 it is easily at a record. The ocean heat content now looks more like it normally would the second week of September, [at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season].<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-sciencenews-content-sidebar\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Getting hotter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The swath of the North Atlantic Ocean where most of its hurricanes form, known as the \u201cmain development region\u201d (see inset map), was primed with superhot waters to fuel powerful storms even before Hurricane Beryl began to organize. The region\u2019s ocean heat content \u2014 a measure not just of temperature at the ocean\u2019s surface but extending deeper into the water column \u2014 has been higher than ever measured before in 2024 (dark red line), even surpassing 2023 (lighter red line), which was the previous record holder. The average ocean heat content for the main development region from 2013 to 2023 is shown in blue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Atlantic Ocean\u2019s heat content<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><figcaption><span class=\"credit wp-credit-3141175\">Credit: B. McNoldy; Source: Upper Ocean Dynamics Lab\/Univ. of Miami<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SN<\/em>: What\u2019s the difference between sea surface temperature and ocean heat content?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>McNoldy<\/strong>: Sea surface temperature is nice and self-explanatory \u2014 it\u2019s just the temperature right at the surface of the ocean. Ocean heat content is a measurement of how deep that warm water goes. It can be measured in a few different ways. The data I\u2019m processing [to analyze ocean heat trends] calculates ocean heat content based on temperatures that are 26\u00b0 Celsius or higher. That\u2019s a very tropical cyclone-oriented number \u2014 generally we think of hurricanes being able to form and maintain themselves [with water temperatures at] 26\u00b0 C or higher. If water that warm is just skin-deep, the ocean heat content is very, very small. But if that warm water goes a lot deeper, the ocean heat content is large.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SN<\/em>: Why does ocean heat content matter for hurricanes?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>McNoldy<\/strong>: For storms like Beryl, very strong storms, if it were moving over a part of the ocean where the warm water was skin deep, it would easily churn up cooler water to the surface, [which can reduce its intensity]. It\u2019ll also leave a cooler wake behind it. But in this case, I kind of doubt we\u2019re going to see much of a cold wake, because the warm water is so deep, it\u2019s just going to churn up more warm water. The hot waters goes down to probably about 100 to 125 meters deep. So it\u2019s not going anywhere. Storms don\u2019t even churn up water that deep. It\u2019s pretty crazy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/070224_cg_beryl_inline2.gif?resize=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"hurricane beryl gif\" class=\"wp-image-3141165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/070224_cg_beryl_inline2.gif?resize=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/070224_cg_beryl_inline2.gif?resize=511%2C383&amp;ssl=1 511w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/070224_cg_beryl_inline2.gif?resize=248%2C186&amp;ssl=1 248w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/070224_cg_beryl_inline2.gif?resize=263%2C197&amp;ssl=1 263w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/070224_cg_beryl_inline2.gif?resize=560%2C420&amp;ssl=1 560w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><span class=\"caption wp-caption-3141165\">Lightning sparkles in the swirling clouds of powerhouse Hurricane Beryl, the Atlantic\u2019s earliest Category 5 storm on record, in this video captured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s GOES East satellite on July 1, 2024.  <\/span><span class=\"credit wp-credit-3141165\">CIRA\/CSU, NOAA<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SN<\/em>: Last year we were also seeing record-breaking heat. What\u2019s different this year?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>McNoldy<\/strong>: Yes, in 2023 we had very <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/article\/extreme-ocean-heat-florida-climate-change\">anomalously warm ocean temperatures<\/a> also \u2014 not as warm as they are now, but at the time, we were amazed (<em>SN: 8\/9\/23<\/em>). But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/article\/north-atlantic-heat-record-sea-surface-temperature\">we also were getting the onset of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> (<em>SN: 6\/15\/23<\/em>). That at least put the brakes on somewhat [to Atlantic hurricane activity].<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year, El Ni\u00f1o has already decayed away. [ENSO] is in the neutral phase now, headed toward La Ni\u00f1a. We expect to be in the full La Ni\u00f1a by the peak of the hurricane season. And La Ni\u00f1a enhances hurricane activity by reducing wind shear through the tropics. [Wind shear can batter at a hurricane\u2019s structure, helping to break it apart.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SN<\/em>: And that was why this year\u2019s hurricane season predictions were so dire?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>McNoldy<\/strong>: That\u2019s exactly the reason why the seasonal forecasts were the most aggressive forecasts they\u2019ve ever produced. All you can do [in forecasts] is take the conditions of previous years in simulations. But we\u2019ve never had a year like this. It is a bit ominous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SN<\/em>: This year has kind of this perfect storm of conditions \u2014 but what about forecasts for future years?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>McNoldy<\/strong>: The oceans are warming. It doesn\u2019t mean that every year, we get warmer than the previous year, but the trend is obviously there. Maybe in 2025 the ocean temperatures won\u2019t be as warm as this year. But at some point, it would be nice to get back down to what records used to be. That almost seems like a foreign climate at this point.<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n<br>\r\n<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/article\/hurricane-beryl-climate-records\">Source link <\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hurricane Beryl, the Atlantic Ocean\u2019s first hurricane in 2024, began roaring across the Caribbean in late June, wreaking devastation on Grenada and other Windward Islands as it grew in power. It\u2019s now swirling on like a buzzsaw toward Jamaica and Mexico\u2019s Yucat\u00e1n peninsula. Beryl is a record-breaking storm, commanding attention in a year already filled [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":86320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/070224_cg_beryl_inline1_desktop.png?resize=614%2C450&ssl=1","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[606],"tags":[74078,486,4795,3227,26847,5749,12753,111],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86319"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86319"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86319\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86321,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86319\/revisions\/86321"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}