{"id":89368,"date":"2024-07-07T05:10:05","date_gmt":"2024-07-07T05:10:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/07\/hopes-for-a-diplomatic-opening-rise-under-irans-new-president\/"},"modified":"2024-07-07T05:10:05","modified_gmt":"2024-07-07T05:10:05","slug":"hopes-for-a-diplomatic-opening-rise-under-irans-new-president","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/07\/hopes-for-a-diplomatic-opening-rise-under-irans-new-president\/","title":{"rendered":"Hopes for a Diplomatic Opening Rise Under Iran\u2019s New President"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/07\/07\/multimedia\/07iran-geopolitics-new-wjmg\/07iran-geopolitics-new-wjmg-facebookJumbo.jpg?resize=1050,550&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Hopes for a Diplomatic Opening Rise Under Iran\u2019s New President\" title=\"Hopes for a Diplomatic Opening Rise Under Iran\u2019s New President\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">With the election of the reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as president, Iran may see a softening of its absolutist foreign policy and even an opportunity for a new diplomatic opening, current and former officials and experts say.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Pezeshkian, a cardiologist, member of Parliament and former health minister, has little direct experience in foreign policy. But he has pledged to empower Iran\u2019s most elite and globalist diplomats to run his foreign agenda, raising hopes of a warmer relationship with the West.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Pezeshkian \u201crepresents a more pragmatic posture and less confrontational posture toward the outside and the inside,\u201d said Dennis B. Ross, who served as a special assistant to President Barack Obama and is a longtime Mideast negotiator.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, Mr. Ross noted, Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, \u201cwould do a great deal to limit\u201d Mr. Pezeshkian\u2019s international agenda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Most of the Iranian president\u2019s powers are confined to domestic issues. It is Mr. Khamenei, as the country\u2019s highest political and religious official, who makes all of the major policy decisions, particularly in foreign affairs and Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The other leading power in the Iranian system, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, oversees all of Iran\u2019s military matters. The Revolutionary Guards and the supreme leader are closely aligned, and they decide when and how to use military force, whether in unleashing its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, or in threatening Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Iran\u2019s foreign policies have grown increasingly hard-line in recent years, diplomats and analysts say, and that trend may well continue under Mr. Pezeshkian. That includes solidifying alliances with other authoritarian states \u2014 as Iran has by arming Russia with drones and missiles to attack Ukraine \u2014 and portraying itself as a power to be reckoned with, both in the Middle East and the West, despite its domestic upheaval and cratered economy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIran\u2019s <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/article\/irans-regional-armed-network\" title=\"axis of resistance\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">axis of resistance<\/a> has been so remarkably successful that it is hard to see why anyone would seek to disrupt a policy that has allowed Tehran to project power with some measure of impunity,\u201d Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/expert-brief\/does-irans-presidential-election-matter?utm_source=twtw&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=TWTW2024Jun28&amp;utm_term=TWTW%20and%20All%20Staff%20as%20of%207-9-20\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">wrote in an analysis<\/a> as the election neared.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-7c18b7ea\">Engaging With the World<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Where the president may have the greatest effect internationally, analysts say, is in shaping how Iran\u2019s policies are viewed around the world, largely through the diplomats he selects. In this respect, the contrast between Mr. Pezeshkian and his top challenger, the anti-Western ultraconservative Saeed Jalili<strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\"><em class=\"css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0\">, <\/em><\/strong>is stark.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">During the hard-line presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mr. Jalili had flatly opposed a deal with world powers to limit Iran\u2019s nuclear program in exchange for relief from bruising economic sanctions. Instead, he had pushed to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.stimson.org\/2024\/influential-reformists-coalesce-around-pezeshkian-for-iran-presidential-candidate\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Stimson Center experts wrote<\/a> in an analysis in June.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cHis approach led to Iran\u2019s isolation,\u201d said Ali Vaez, the Iran director at the International Crisis Group. \u201cHe doesn\u2019t believe in the value of dealing with the West.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Under Mr. Pezeshkian, he said, \u201cI think the odds of a diplomatic breakthrough will increase.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-339be1cd\">Easing Relations With the West<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Pezeshkian has said he is determined to set a policy of international engagement and supports an easing of relations with the West with the aim of ending the sanctions. He says he wants to foster communication with most other governments across the world \u2014 except Israel \u2014 but he has also warned against putting too much stock in alliances with Russia and China. That\u2019s \u201cbecause then they could exploit Iran\u201d and further isolate it globally, Mr. Vaez said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIf we want to work based on this policy, we must behave well with everyone and establish a good relationship with everyone based on dignity and interests,\u201d Mr. Pezeshkian said in May. \u201cThe more we improve our foreign relations, the closer we get to the aforementioned policy, but the more tensions increase, the more we move away from it and the situation worsens.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Vaez said Mr. Pezeshkian has not put forward any specific foreign policy proposals and is fairly upfront about his lack of international experience. But the chief foreign policy adviser for his campaign was Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who brokered a nuclear deal with world powers in 2015. An astute English-speaking diplomat who has lived in the United States, Mr. Zarif has been mocked at home by hard-liners as a make-believe American.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-51afe4c\">The Trump Factor<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A key test of Iran\u2019s interest in diplomacy with the West will be in whether it responds to efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, an issue that is complicated by the candidacy of former President Donald J. Trump.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The agreement, which aimed to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk\/documents\/CBP-9870\/CBP-9870.pdf\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">technically expires next year<\/a>. But it has been <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/09\/11\/world\/middleeast\/trump-iran-bolton-.html\" title=\"\">all but defunct<\/a> since Mr. Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018 and reimposed American sanctions. That prompted Iran to accelerate its uranium enrichment to the point where experts say it may now be able to produce the fuel for three or more bombs in days or weeks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Iran has long insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful, and that it is prohibited from manufacturing or using nuclear weapons because of a 2003 \u201cfatwa,\u201d or religious edict, issued by Mr. Khamenei. American officials say there is no evidence of a current effort to weaponize Iran\u2019s near bomb-grade uranium, but the Israelis argue that such efforts are indeed underway under the guise of university research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Catherine Ashton, a British diplomat who oversaw the nuclear talks as the European Union\u2019s foreign policy chief when an interim agreement was reached in 2013, worked closely with both Mr. Jalili and Mr. Zarif at the negotiating table. She said Mr. Jalili appeared most concerned with \u201ckeeping the negotiations happening while ensuring there was no real progress or outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Zarif, on the other hand, had \u201ca far greater understanding of the U.S.A. and Europe, and a determination to secure the future of Iran in the region,\u201d Ms. Ashton said. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Khamenei had warned Iranians against electing a president who might be seen as too open to the West, particularly to the United States. Diplomats also note that the warming of transactional relations with Russia over the last decade, following years of distrust and disagreement, has helped Iran cope with continued international isolation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The war in Gaza has aggravated tensions between the United States and forces backed by Iran in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, diminishing the possibility of new agreements between Washington and Tehran, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.stimson.org\/2024\/iran-and-russia-enter-a-new-level-of-military-cooperation\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Stimson Center experts<\/a> wrote.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">After an <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/01\/world\/middleeast\/iran-commanders-killed-syria-israel.html\" title=\"\">Israeli strike on Iran\u2019s embassy compound<\/a> in Syria in April, killing several Iranian commanders, Tehran retaliated by firing hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel, most of which were intercepted. It marked a serious escalation between the two enemies, and most likely led Iran to ensure it had a more potent deterrent in place.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-3ce905d7\">Avoiding Conflict With the U.S.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, the Iranians are aware that the United States is determined to avoid a broadening of the conflict in the Middle East, and there have been back-channel messages between the two capitals to underscore the dangers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">A <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/08\/10\/us\/politics\/iran-us-prisoners-nuclear-program.html\" title=\"\">prisoner exchange<\/a> last year between the two countries had stirred hope of further diplomatic cooperation, as had indirect talks over the nuclear program. But Iran is now focused on how \u2014 or whether \u2014 to deal with Mr. Trump if he wins re-election in November, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/26\/world\/middleeast\/iran-election-trump.html\" title=\"\">as is widely assumed among Iran\u2019s political class<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Ross, the negotiator, said the new Iranian president will have some leeway in adjusting the balance between \u201cpragmatism or adherence to the ideological norms that the supreme leader sets\u201d in making government decisions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But that will only go so far in Mr. Pezeshkian\u2019s dealings in foreign policy, especially with the United States, where Mr. Khamenei has set clear boundaries. Even when it came to the 2015 nuclear deal, Mr. Ross said, the supreme leader \u201cdistanced himself from it and positioned himself to say \u2018I told you so\u2019 when Trump walked away from it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/07\/world\/middleeast\/iran-peveshkian-khamenei-nuclear.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the election of the reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as president, Iran may see a softening of its absolutist foreign policy and even an opportunity for a new diplomatic opening, current and former officials and experts say. Mr. Pezeshkian, a cardiologist, member of Parliament and former health minister, has little direct experience in foreign policy. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89369,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/07\/07\/multimedia\/07iran-geopolitics-new-wjmg\/07iran-geopolitics-new-wjmg-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[10084,5791,21116,2024,2627,572],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89368"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89368"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89368\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89370,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89368\/revisions\/89370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}