{"id":902,"date":"2024-03-14T23:27:27","date_gmt":"2024-03-14T23:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/14\/ukraine-stalled-on-the-battlefield-targets-russias-oil-industry\/"},"modified":"2024-03-14T23:27:27","modified_gmt":"2024-03-14T23:27:27","slug":"ukraine-stalled-on-the-battlefield-targets-russias-oil-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/14\/ukraine-stalled-on-the-battlefield-targets-russias-oil-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine, Stalled on the Battlefield, Targets Russia\u2019s Oil Industry"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/03\/12\/multimedia\/12ukraine-refineries-01-bjhq\/12ukraine-refineries-01-bjhq-facebookJumbo.jpg?fit=1050,549&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Ukraine, Stalled on the Battlefield, Targets Russia\u2019s Oil Industry\" title=\"Ukraine, Stalled on the Battlefield, Targets Russia\u2019s Oil Industry\" \/><\/div><p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">With its army short of ammunition and troops to break the deadlock on the battlefield, Ukraine has increasingly taken the fight behind Russian lines, attacking <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/11\/12\/world\/europe\/ukraine-navy-admiral-black-sea.html\" title=\"\">warships<\/a>, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/12\/31\/world\/europe\/ukraine-russia-train-sabotage.html\" title=\"\">railways<\/a> and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/08\/30\/world\/europe\/ukraine-russia-drone-missile-attacks.html\" title=\"\">airfields<\/a> in an attempt to diminish Moscow\u2019s military operations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Most recently, that campaign has focused on oil infrastructure, hitting refineries deep in Russian territory and driving home the country\u2019s vulnerability to such attacks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On Tuesday and Wednesday, Ukrainian drones hit four Russian refineries, officials on both sides said, adding to a series of recent attacks that have set fire to depots, fuel tanks and other oil infrastructure across Russia. Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has claimed responsibility for nearly a dozen such assaults, and local Russian authorities have reported five more.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Experts and Ukrainian officials say Ukraine hopes to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/19\/world\/europe\/ukraine-russia-oil-drone-attack.html\" title=\"\">disrupt the Russian military\u2019s logistical routes and combat operations<\/a> by targeting refineries, which supply gasoline, diesel and fuel for tanks, fighter jets and other critical military equipment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Beyond that, they hope to chip away at the profits that Moscow makes from the exports of oil products and cause disruptions in Russia\u2019s domestic oil market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mikhail Krutikhin, an independent Russian energy analyst living in exile in Oslo, said the strikes had prompted Moscow to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27\/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C%20Feb%2027%20(Reuters),world's%20second%20largest%20oil%20exporter.\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">introduce a six-month ban on gasoline exports, starting March 1<\/a>, to try to ensure that domestic demand is met while repairs are made to damaged refineries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">British military intelligence <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DefenceHQ\/status\/1766387798397931579\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">said last week<\/a>, \u201cIt is likely that Russia\u2019s refining capacity has been temporarily reduced\u201d by multiple Ukrainian attacks against refineries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Wednesday told the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/ria.ru\/20240313\/ukraina-1932639277.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Russian state news agency RIA Novosti<\/a> that the goal of the attacks, coupled with <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/03\/12\/world\/europe\/ukraine-russia-drone-attacks-putin.html\" title=\"\">armed incursions by Ukraine-backed Russian groups<\/a> into Russian territory this week, was \u201cif not to disrupt the presidential elections in Russia, then at least somehow interfere with the normal process of expressing the will of citizens.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Putin, who will undoubtedly win a fifth term in the election this weekend, added that another goal was to get some kind of \u201ctrump card in a possible future negotiation process.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The appeal of Ukraine\u2019s recent drone targets is obvious.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Oil plants are sprawling and hard to protect, and there are so many of them across Russia that Moscow cannot realistically provide them all with air defenses, according to Mr. Krutikhin and Damien Ernst, an energy expert and professor at the University of Li\u00e8ge in Belgium. Many of the plants that have been struck are in the west, closer to Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Refineries in particular have been a prime focus, because they turn crude oil into valuable products like gasoline, diesel, kerosene and jet fuel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Ernst and Mr. Krutikhin noted that, unlike in other oil infrastructure such as pipelines, a lot of complex machinery and sophisticated engineering goes into refineries, and they can take several months to fix. Some <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/politika\/91473\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">analysts say<\/a> the repairs could take longer than usual because sanctions prohibit Western sales of certain components to Russia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">After this week\u2019s attacks, the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/rian_ru\/234880\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Russian<\/a> <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/golubev_vu\/1203\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">authorities<\/a> said operations had been temporarily halted at two of the refineries that were hit near Nizhny Novgorod, east of Moscow, and in the southern Rostov region. Fires also broke out at two other Russian refineries that were struck, according to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/Klychkov_Andrey\/3296\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">local<\/a> <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/pavelmalkov_official\/2668\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">authorities<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But such disruptions do not mean Ukraine can truly undermine the Russian energy behemoth, which is at the core of its economy and war efforts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It remains unclear what impact, if any<strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">,<\/strong> the attacks will have on the fighting. Russia still has the advantage on the battlefield, and has been <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/02\/17\/world\/europe\/russia-ukraine-war-map.html\" title=\"\">pressing along the front line<\/a> in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Sergey Vakulenko, an energy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a research group, said Russia was producing far more diesel than it needed to supply its troops. \u201cIt will be quite a while before Ukraine manages to hit enough refining units to have an impact on Russia\u2019s diesel capacity,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Vakulenko, a former top manager at Gazprom Neft, one of Russia\u2019s larger oil producers, added that the impact of the attacks this year on Russia\u2019s exports of refined oil had been \u201cquite minimal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Attempts have been made before to undermine Russia\u2019s oil industry.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">After Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Western nations introduced sweeping sanctions targeting Russian sales of hydrocarbons \u2014 including oil, gas and coal. And most of Europe managed to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/07\/26\/world\/europe\/russia-gas-cuts-putin-eu.html\" title=\"\">wean itself off Russian gas<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Russia has softened the blow by expanding <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/06\/24\/business\/russia-oil-china-india-ukraine-war.html\" title=\"\">sales to friendlier countries<\/a>, primarily China and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2023\/06\/22\/business\/india-russia-oil.html\" title=\"\">India<\/a>, and even investing in a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2023\/05\/30\/world\/asia\/russia-oil-ships-sanctions.html\" title=\"\">\u201cshadow\u201d fleet to export its oil clandestinely<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since the war began, Russia has collected about $450 billion from exports of crude oil and refined oil products, according to the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.russiafossiltracker.com\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air<\/a>, an independent research organization in Finland. Military experts say this revenue has helped Moscow expand its defense industry and buy missiles and drones from Iran and North Korea.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On Thursday, Pavel Sorokin, Russia\u2019s first deputy energy minister, suggested that Russia was pivoting again to meet a new challenge. He acknowledged that he expected the output of refineries to decrease this year, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/tass.ru\/ekonomika\/20233005\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">according to the Russian state news agency Tass<\/a>. But he indicated that the country had options and would instead increase its crude-oil exports.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe situation is stable,\u201d he said, according to Tass. \u201cThere is nothing critical because it means oil exports will be higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Oleksandra Mykolyshyn<!-- --> and <!-- -->Maria Varenikova<!-- --> contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With its army short of ammunition and troops to break the deadlock on the battlefield, Ukraine has increasingly taken the fight behind Russian lines, attacking warships, railways and airfields in an attempt to diminish Moscow\u2019s military operations. Most recently, that campaign has focused on oil infrastructure, hitting refineries deep in Russian territory and driving home [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/03\/12\/multimedia\/12ukraine-refineries-01-bjhq\/12ukraine-refineries-01-bjhq-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1132,617,1134,211,1131,1133,1130],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=902"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":904,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902\/revisions\/904"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.talkwithrattan.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}